as far as the win projections i think people are assuming w/all the back to backs and back to back to backs that no ones gonna put up big win % this year, particularly thin teams like the heat
cole def looks like he could be a barea/big baby type player who is important to a championship team and then eventually gets offered a long term deal for many millions of dollars by another team and everyone goes “haha, okay sure”
Cole may be good and he may not, but he is a huge upgrade over Mario Chalmers already.
― polyphonic, Wednesday, December 28, 2011 2:53 PM (14 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink
eh i mean lol mario chalmers but i kinda doubt the heat will be relying on cole too much come playoff time, its you know rookie point guards tend to be p erratic
cole can at least dribble
obvs this isnt based on much except the observation that guys can have one good game that doesnt mean anything, and 23 y/o rookies tend to not improve that much
exactly, remember how insane Brandon Jennings’ first 10 or so games were—he seemed destined to be the next Allen Iverson (or better) and was only 20
it tells you something about the state of PGs in the nba that every heat fan is, at best, absolutely terrified of mario chalmers, but had they not resigned him ppl would’ve freaked out
chalmers is not great for sure xp
imo Jeremy Lin would be an upgrade on Chalmers.
no
Okay maybe not but I wanted to say something OUTRAGEOUS
i root for jeremy lin
A huge % of NBA players who look pretty impressive when they have that much space around them. I really think a lot of that performance was the “no one is wasting time worrying about norris cole in this game” factor.
2011–12 All-Breakout Team
Which players are ready to emerge as stars this season? (PER Diem: Dec. 28, 2011)
By John Hollinger
If you were going to ask me which players were due for a breakout in the coming season, I would look for the following things:
First, I would look for a player who was already effective in whatever minutes he played.
Second, and rather obviously, I would look for youth; not all young players get better, but virtually all players who show dramatic year-to-year improvement are young.
Third, I would look for an increase in playing time, which would augment the perceived effect of the first two factors. Last year, for instance, Kevin Love won Most Improved partly because he actually improved, but mostly because he went from 28.6 minutes a game to 35.8 and so his per-game averages skyrocketed.
Finally, I would look for a player whose recognition was liable to increase dramatically due to factors beyond his control — for instance, that his team was going to win more than people expected.
In other words, I would look for Ty Lawson.
Effective? Denver’s mighty mite point guard had a PER of 17.99 last season after posting a 16.51 mark as a rookie. Despite standing 5-foot-11 he shot better than 50 percent from the floor each of his first two seasons.
Young? He’s 24 and in his third NBA season.
Increased playing time? Lawson played 26.3 minutes per game last season, when he spent much of the year backing up Chauncey Billups. This season he’s likely to average around 33 — an increase similar to the one Love got a year ago.
Recognition? Nobody was talking about the Nuggets in preseason, but if they’re as good as I suspect that is going to change fairly quickly. And when it does, Lawson’s lightning forays up and down the court will get the lion’s share of the attention.
All those are reasons I picked Lawson to win the Most Improved Player Award this season; on the heels of picking Love a year ago I’m feeling irrationally exuberant about my abilities in this department.
But regardless of how he does in the award voting, Lawson is the captain of my 2011–12 All-Breakout Team. As a reminder, I’ve been doing this for several years (here’s last year’s squad, led by Mr. Love) right as the season starts, so Wednesday we’ll once again dip into the crystal ball to pick out a dozen players who will step up.
Before we start, however, there are a couple of popular picks that I didn’t include. The most prominent one is Eric Gordon, whom I’ve heard lots of people touting because he’ll be the go-to guy on a 50-loss team with a bad offense. Hate to break it to you, but last season he was the go-to guy on a 50-loss team with a bad offense; he just got dwarfed by the Blake Griffin highlights. Gordon also played nearly 38 minutes a game on a relatively fast-paced team; as a result he may have trouble just sustaining last season’s touches, let alone increasing them. So unless he makes dramatic efficiency gains his numbers aren’t going to jump the way people expect.
DeAndre Jordan is another one, although this one is as much semantics — I had him on the team last year and I don’t normally do back-to-backs. Also, while Jordan will get both more minutes and more exposure, I’m still not seeing where the non-highlight-film baskets are coming from. Lob City? Sure. Jump Hook City? Not so much.
Marcin Gortat seemed like a no-brainer for this team until we saw how good Robin Lopez looked for Phoenix in the opener. The Suns’ center situation has time-share written all over it, which is likely to diminish Gortat’s stats. So will a broken finger.
Finally, there’s Indiana’s Paul George. I absolutely love him, but with all the other scorers in Indiana I suspect it’s a year too soon to have him on here.
So who made the squad? Along with Lawson, I’ve narrowed it down to 11 other players ready for a big step forward:
James Harden, Oklahoma City
This one feels like stealing because the breakout already mostly happened. Harden before the All-Star break a year ago: 10.3 points, 43 percent shooting; Harden after the All-Star break: 15.8 points, 46.5 percent shooting. A third-year pro who is only 22 years old, Harden could still play more minutes, too; he averaged only 28.6 even in his second-half blow-up a year ago. If he keeps coming off the bench he’s a good bet to win the Sixth Man Award; if he starts his minutes will increase enough that he could win Most Improved.
Ryan Anderson, Orlando
One positive side effect of the bizarre Brandon Bass-Glen Davis trade by the Magic is that it makes Anderson the starting power forward. While Anderson still needs to improve on most of the subtle stuff — defending, screening, etc. — there is no question whatsoever that he will produce big numbers if he gets consistent minutes.
Over the past two seasons Anderson has averaged more than 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds per 40 minutes; he’s only 23 years old and should keep improving those numbers. With Anderson likely to up last year’s 22.3 minutes per game to something in the low 30s, look for him to average in the mid-to-high teens with several double-doubles.
Gerald Henderson, Charlotte
Again, the pre- and post-All-Star stats are telling. After Paul Silas took over and installed Henderson as his starting shooting guard, he averaged 14.3 points per game. With a brutal roster around him, the 24-year-old third-year pro will average around 35 minutes per game and could land a scoring average around 16 a game.
More importantly, however, he’s an emerging force as a defensive stopper. Although he’s short for a wing at 6–4, Henderson is an excellent athlete and has good technique. The recognition for his play on this end may be slower in coming around, but he’ll be a long-term starter because of it.
Chase Budinger, Houston
I have a bit more misgivings about this one because I don’t know he and Kevin Martin can co-exist side-by-side as starting wings; one of them has to guard the opponent’s top wing scorer and zero of them are capable of doing so.
Nonetheless, too many other factors are in Budinger’s favor. He averaged 14.4 points as a starter after the break a year ago, and he did it while finding much more efficient ways to score. If Budinger makes a decent share of 3s and draws an actual foul once in a while, his high-flying transition game should do the rest. Like a lot of guys on this list, he’s a 23-year-old third-year pro and primed for a move up the charts. He also rebounds like crazy for a wing and could average five rips a game this year.
Jeff Teague, Atlanta
An obvious pick for this team after emerging as Atlanta’s starting point guard during the playoffs, Teague became even more obvious during Tuesday night’s opener when he kept knocking down open 3s. With a line-drive set shot Teague was 25-for-80 for his career; Tuesday night he made 3-of-4 while scoring 13 points and playing a major role in the Hawks’ harassing, trapping defense.
Teague doesn’t need to be Reggie Miller out there, he just has to hit one or two a game to get defenses to respect his jumper; that will allow him to use his explosive quickness to get to the basket. Unlike last year, minutes are assured unless he completely face-plants, so while he won’t get many assists he’ll likely average in the mid-teens in points.
Marcus Thornton, Sacramento
While I’m not crazy about the Kings bidding against themselves for Thornton in restricted free agency, the third-year pro is definitely primed for a big year and may prove Lawson’s biggest rival for the Most Improved trophy. While the third-year pro is still virtually unknown outside Northern California, he averaged 21.3 points per game after the break a year ago and nets better than a point every two minutes for his career.
The next step for Thornton is adding quality to his quantity, a familiar refrain for the Kings. Thornton’s a good shot creator who doesn’t turn the ball over, but he’d threaten to make an All-Star team if he shot better from the floor (44.4 percent) or drew more fouls (just .215 free throw attempts per field goal attempt for his career). The other worry is that Sacto’s overage of one-on-one scorers and shortage of passers will chip away at his numbers. Nonetheless, his scoring average is going to startle some people who weren’t paying attention at the end of last season, and there’s a chance he can still take it up another level.
John Wall, Washington
Just because something is hammer-you-over-the-head obvious doesn’t mean it isn’t true. While Wall had a rough opener against New Jersey, one has to think his output is bound to improve dramatically after an injury-plagued rookie year. Even in a poor performance on Monday, he had eight rebounds, five assists, three steals and drew 13 free throw attempts. Not too shabby. Wall may still struggle to score efficiently, but with his ability to fill the box score in so many ways his breakout potential is obvious.
Rodney Stuckey, Detroit
Last season Stuckey played 31 minutes a game for the league’s third-slowest team. This year I expect the Pistons to play less slowly, and I expect Stuckey to move up to around 34 or 35 minutes a game. Combine those two factors with another year of experience and the departure of Richard Hamilton, and Stuckey’s scoring average could move into the high teens.
He quietly took a solid step forward offensively last season and is getting his post game to the point where small guards are dead meat against him. And while the Pistons struggled in their opening-day loss, Stuckey did not — he had 17 points on 11 shots, along with six dimes.
Tiago Splitter, San Antonio
Splitter isn’t going to put up big numbers, but he’s going to get a lot of run on a good team and will be very effective when he plays. Splitter’s translated European stats suggested he was a starting-caliber NBA big man, which is why it surprised me to see him at the end of the Spurs’ bench last year.
This isn’t uncommon for San Antonio — Fabricio Oberto suffered a similar fate before emerging as a starter a year later — and Splitter’s overseas numbers were much stronger than Oberto’s. Don’t look at the five points he had in the opener; look instead at the 33 minutes he played. Dude is gonna be a major factor his year.
Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia
It’s easy to forget how young Holiday was when he came into the league. Although he’s in his third season, he’s only 21 years old and should take another step forward in 2011–12. While his opening game in Portland was less than scintillating, take the big-picture view here.
Holiday’s two main areas to develop are drawing fouls and taking and making 3s, which will make him a much more efficient scorer. Those are areas where players often make dramatic strides at this point in their careers. There’s no guarantee it happens for him, but I like the odds.
Danilo Gallinari, Denver
Since I began with a Nugget, let’s close with one, too. Gallinari averaged nearly a point every two minutes as a Nugget last season, but barely played 30 minutes a game. With Wilson Chandler in China until further notice, he’s set to boost that back into the 33–34 range, adding a couple of points to his per-game average. Meanwhile, his efficiency should also improve.
Like a lot of players on this list, Gallo is 23 years old and entering his third full season, putting him in the prime spot for a big step forward. He’s shown the ability to both shoot from deep and put it on the floor and take it to the cup, and should benefit as much as anyone from the Nuggets’ wondrous Lawson-Andre Miller point guard combo.
lol harlan
:)
haha, harlan is such a fucking treasure
my brother actually sent me a text about that exact call last night, i’m glad there’s video
norris cole is definitely benefiting from the ‘rondo’ effect
new ‘rondo’ effect seems to be him driving the lane and instead of just laying it up he kicks it out to a scrub in the wing
lmao at shaq shaking ej by his legs, wtf
Nice of Hollinger to predict that young guys who look to be getting some more run a few years in to their careers will be better than before. Genius at work.
tbf a lot of young dudes get more run only to wash out
breakout years are one of the funnest things abt the nba
#mario lolmers
kinda funny how nobody wanted to touch nick young w/ a 30 foot pole this offseason
their quants must know something
he’s another guy that would be perfect on the heat
hes a worse chucker than monta
lol @ the idea of bron making a cmon i was open face at nick young ten times a game
<3 u harlan
bron / wade 3pt shooting
two first games last year, vs Boston and Philadelphia: 13 (8 Lebron, 5 Wade)
two first games this year, vs Dallas and Boston: 0
lmao
bron / wade OTM
i even like basketball when lebron isn’t shooting 3’s
‘young spo’ was a rejected member of bricksquad
mad jealous of amare’s pad
no joke but I think personal chef to an nba player would be my dream job
OTM
lol what is up w/ amare’s crib looking like it’s next to a dorm stairwell
he’s probably got a two floor apartment
man... i want the knicks to fail so spectacularly but i love amar’e so god damn much
i need to model my entire shit off amar’e
“Every body need to shut up I didn’t call out my coach or team mates I said I had a bad game need it n the post instead of jump shots,” Blatche tweeted.
“Every body need to shut up I didn’t call out my coach or team mates I said I had a bad game need it n the post instead of jump shots,” Blatche tweeted.
“Every body need to shut up I didn’t call out my coach or team mates I said I had a bad game need it n the post instead of jump shots,” Blatche tweeted.
“Every body need to shut up I didn’t call out my coach or team mates I said I had a bad game need it n the post instead of jump shots,” Blatche tweeted.
“Every body need to shut up I didn’t call out my coach or team mates I said I had a bad game need it n the post instead of jump shots,” Blatche tweeted.
Every body need to shut up
“Every body need to shut up”—Andray Blatche
words of wisdom
sometimes i think twitter is the best thing to happen to professional sports
every single body
Every body
alright, really fucking frustrated right now
who in this bitch has league pass? did you buy the cable deal? if so, how the hell do you activate your online account, which is supposed to come free with the cable package? i’ve gone to nba.com/activate but when i select comcast and type in my account number it says it’s not recognized. i called comcast and everything seems to be fine—the package is paid for, it’s active, etc. but i can’t activate my online account. anyone else have this problem?
call david stern
wtf is dj augustin and boris diaw doing??
lol bobs have the lead by one with a possession left
welcome to three games in four nights!
annnnd wade with the tough bank shot
followed by taunting cam newton!
clippers offense is explosive
their defense still sucks major balls tho
Seeing a lot of bugs in the offense too tbh. Could use a full season to work them out.
clippers beta testing
There was one play where the ball just went back and forth between griffin and williams like three times in a row, like “Blake, do something!” “Naw man!” “Come on!” “No I can’t!” “Do something man!” and then it got stolen.
celtics are just getting railed by the lockdown defensive machine known as the new orleans hornets
― cad, Wednesday, December 28, 2011 9:45 PM (38 seconds ago) Bookmark Permalink
I’ve given bosh some shit on ilh over the last couple of years but I take it all back
deandre is still p undisciplined on d, gets good blocks but gets tripped up on screens and can try to do too much
...going after blocks
btw watching Manu in this stage in his career is a marvel...like, I’ve never seen a player so overcome his athletic limitations as a guard and yet make so many heady plays on both ends of the floor in so many aspects of the game. he’s so much smarter than he was ca. 2005 or 6.
and R Jefferson is quietly having a very nice start to the season, deadly from three, making smart plays. he’s overpaid but I’m glad they did not amnesty him.
god, griffin just sonned Timmy d so hard in the block
lol what happened there after the dunk
looked like bosh was landing in a mcdonald’s play pen
spurs have over 90 and it’s still the 3rd q
splitter is amazing !!!!!
picks defense and srlsy shut down griffin
TJ ford looks a lot better this game, lead some good offensive sets, finding open dudes, took a charge
srs opinion, if splitter can be this consistently good, spurs can win the west
I mean why the fuck not, Dallas is way worse, Westbrook cd derail okc, lolkers, clips not ready for primetime, crazier shit has happened
also spurs super young bench is their secret weapon
west finals imo spurs vs nuggets
god that play was so sick, kawhi was having a miserable night shooting, too
xp
ohhh yeah we just got a z-bound
everything about the grizz remains wonderful
can’t say the same about the Celtics.
rip suns / celtics
yeah can’t say i know what the celtics are up to but i do not approve
Hoping Pierce saves them from oblivion. Danny didn’t/couldn’t make the moves he needed to rejuvenate this crew. Gonna be a rough year, like ’91 with broke as Bird and McHale.
broke ass even. grrr.
I seriously try hard not to think about Steve Nash rotting what’s left of his career away in Phoenix. Makes me sad. XP
Nashs loyalty, v sweet. v stupid
he’ll sign with the knicks next year
ESPN Stats & Info
Russell Westbrook: 1st player to go 0-for-13 or worse in a win since the immortal David Wesley, 2000–01
didn’t catch any of this clips game but shit that’s pretty discouraging
lol david wesley is good company to be with, I guess
*reminisces*
Baron Davis’ career is so bizarre to me
josh harrellson sighting
Man that Clips game was atrocious. I can’t decide whether the bigger takeaway is how far the Clips have to go or how fucking good the Spurs still are.
This first month of the season seems like it’ll be about as much signal as it is noise.
so i guess the spurs are trying to have kawhi spot up for 3s? it’s great if it works, but seems like a stretch for him. also i didn’t see much of the spurs game tonight but manu is still a joy to watch.
followed by taunting cam newton!
― cad, Wednesday, December 28, 2011 9:27 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Permalink
lol did this really happen
No Referrer (can’t tell) 223
lol there are some looow shooting %s so far
ESPNSteinLine Marc Stein
It leads to perception OKC/Westbrook still haggling. Which also reminds you: Hornets wanted Westbrook for CP3 & that option now gone for OKC
2 minutes ago
why tf wouldnt okc do this, do they hate guaranteed rings idgi