2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

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primary is just a straight ballot vote; most GOP primaries are winner-take-all but that may have changed in a few places.

caucuses are more like a big meeting. people physically get together in a big room (a high school gym generally) and, at the appointed time, bunch together with the other supporters of their first choice.

if there aren't enough people in a bunch, at that time, to meet the lower threshold %, then all those people have to choose someone else, and after another half-hour or so resort themselves for another count (or go home i guess). and that's where the unpollable combo of secondary & tertiary preferences combined with local relationships and just lucky charisma or whatev comes into play.

slandblox goole, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:31 (twelve years ago) link

i dunno what those lower % thresholds are btw. 5? 15? in small communities or if there is low turnout, there's plenty of room to game this shit because the margins are so wacky. it's also why organization matters, a network of folks to just be at these places and hopefully yak their way thru the night. and also why long-duration enthusiasms like ron paul's core of fanatics can have a big effect over flash-in-the-pan polling leads like newt gingrich's.

slandblox goole, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:33 (twelve years ago) link

idk how many rounds they go through either. probably when there are no more candidacies left below the margin. we could probably go to wikipedia or sth right?

slandblox goole, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:34 (twelve years ago) link

Surely sometimes the second or third choice for a voter whose first choice becomes unavailable is: fuck this, I'm leaving.

Aimless, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:34 (twelve years ago) link

This was taken at last year's Democratic caucus in Nevada. Look's quite bizarre.

http://www.american-buddha.com/aeyes29d.jpg

clemenza, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:35 (twelve years ago) link

Yeah the caucus really seems to favor pauls campaign

river wolf, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:36 (twelve years ago) link

is the pledge legally binding & enforcable, bc i think the best way to treat such a thing would be writing SURE DO! XOXO on the dotted line & then vote for the assholest as planned

Never translate German (schlump), Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:38 (twelve years ago) link

lol my mom is a longtime democrat with no real 'extreme' or unorthodox or even notably leftist beliefs, but has a bizarre taste for single-digit outlier candidates.

i asked her in 08 if she was gonna caucus and she said she really liked joe biden (i know, right?) (i was fishing for her take on hrc vs obama vs born in a meal). so i was like, uh ok, who's your second choice then? "bill richardson".

then i recalled back in 88 when she had talked a whole crew of old people from the home she managed to go caucus for... bruce babbitt.

no real point to this story other than: caucuses are kind of fucked up and nobody ever explains wtf happens at them until like the night of.

slandblox goole, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:42 (twelve years ago) link

Given what the pledge 'requires', it could not be legally binding. It is just a load of hokum.

Aimless, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:43 (twelve years ago) link

"I promise to vote for the Republican nominee for President of the United States whether or not, in the intervening time between the primary and the national election, it is determined that he is a 'Manchurian' salafist candidate, a socialist, the author of the 'texts from Bennet' or a 34 year old Guatemalan drug runner."

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:53 (twelve years ago) link

ha rand paul: "it must be frustrating for Newt, to see something he feels he's entitled to slipping away"

HOOS aka driver of steen, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:54 (twelve years ago) link

"I do hope he enjoyed that cruise to the Greek isles."

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:56 (twelve years ago) link

(xpost) Ditto those of us who were hoping for a train-wreck of a Republican nomination process. We feel it slipping away, and it's very frustrating.

clemenza, Thursday, 29 December 2011 20:59 (twelve years ago) link

What could be more of a train-wreck than the inevitable Bob Dole-ization of the 2012 Republican candidate?

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:02 (twelve years ago) link

Newt-ization would have been preferable.

clemenza, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:03 (twelve years ago) link

Bob Dole still thinks Bob Dole had a lot to offer the American people. Bob Dole resents the implication he was a stiff.

Aimless, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:09 (twelve years ago) link

Bob Dole was actually funny at times. He's still a loser.

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:12 (twelve years ago) link

I remember getting really drunk one night not long after the '96 election and referring to myself as Bob Dole for a good part of the evening. ("Bob Dole can't keep his head up.") Just looked at his Wikipedia page--he turned 88 this year. I actually used to find him very funny.

clemenza, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:14 (twelve years ago) link

Btw, via a perusal of the longest booms (as opposed to rece/depre-ssions in American history; the longest under one President? Clinton.

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:14 (twelve years ago) link

The only way I can imagine Twitter being even vaguely interesting would be if in every tweet, you had to refer to yourself as Bob Dole.

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:16 (twelve years ago) link

The upcoming Iowa caucuses make Bob Dole fresh and interesting again.

Aimless, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:21 (twelve years ago) link

lol my mom is a longtime democrat with no real 'extreme' or unorthodox or even notably leftist beliefs, but has a bizarre taste for single-digit outlier candidates.

i asked her in 08 if she was gonna caucus and she said she really liked joe biden (i know, right?) (i was fishing for her take on hrc vs obama vs born in a meal). so i was like, uh ok, who's your second choice then? "bill richardson".

then i recalled back in 88 when she had talked a whole crew of old people from the home she managed to go caucus for... bruce babbitt.

All Catholic blue-blazer-wearers. I think I actually flirted with Babbitt too for '88 (the preteen-neb primary was a big deal that year); Gore was too conservative and hadn't yet showed his enviro side. Paul Simon became my favorite after Hart dropped out.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:25 (twelve years ago) link

Nice bow ties

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:39 (twelve years ago) link

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2011/12/kelly-clarkson-endorses-ron-paul-on-twitter.html

Kelly Clarkson may be a country star in denial, but last night on Twitter, she proudly declared herself to be a Republican backing the man who may triumph next month in the Iowa caucuses. "I love Ron Paul," she wrote. "I liked him a lot during the last republican nomination and no one gave him a chance. If he wins the nomination for the Republican party in 2012 he's got my vote." Though her endorsement prompted fellow chanteuse Michelle Branch to also out herself as a Paul fan, Clarkson's followers quickly brought up the controversy surrounding Paul's recently unearthed newsletter statements, and the singer clarified, "I have never heard that he's a racist? I definitely don't agree with racism, that's ignorant ... I love all people and could care less if you like men or women. I have never heard that Ron Paul is a racist or homophobe?" Ultimately, wrote Clarkson, "I do not support racism. I support gay rights, straight rights, women's rights, men's rights, white/black/purple/orange rights. I like Ron Paul because he believes in less government and letting the people (all of us) make the decisions and mold our country. That is all." Justin Guarini, care to weigh in?

slandblox goole, Thursday, 29 December 2011 21:59 (twelve years ago) link

Orange ppl can fuck right off

M. White, Thursday, 29 December 2011 22:01 (twelve years ago) link

i see a purple motherfucker and i going straight for my .357

(will), Thursday, 29 December 2011 22:05 (twelve years ago) link

i'm

(will), Thursday, 29 December 2011 22:05 (twelve years ago) link

I keep wondering if there is someone out there that is going to run as a 3rd party canidate, as this seems like a year where someone could actually get some traction.

I'm not sure if Perot doesn't run in 96 that Bob Dole would have won. Clinton might have still won, but it would have been way closer.

earlnash, Thursday, 29 December 2011 23:35 (twelve years ago) link

can't think of a viable 3rd party candidate other than Paul, and even then I think he'd struggle for money.

akm, Thursday, 29 December 2011 23:54 (twelve years ago) link

MSNBC Alert Thread?

Politics nerds might be interested in checking out Howard Fineman in jeans right now. His suit stuck at the dry cleaners?

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Friday, 30 December 2011 00:11 (twelve years ago) link

Goodbye to any residual like I had for Kelly Clarkson. For not just the politics, but the dumb.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Friday, 30 December 2011 00:14 (twelve years ago) link

pop star is a dipshit, news at 11

k3vin k., Friday, 30 December 2011 00:19 (twelve years ago) link

I keep wondering if there is someone out there that is going to run as a 3rd party canidate, as this seems like a year where someone could actually get some traction.

I'm not sure if Perot doesn't run in 96 that Bob Dole would have won. Clinton might have still won, but it would have been way closer.

― earlnash, Thursday, December 29, 2011 5:35 PM (51 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink

http://sportcardsauction.com/images/scan0526.gif

Matt Armstrong, Friday, 30 December 2011 00:33 (twelve years ago) link

Meanwhile a surprising number of commenters agree with John J. Miller's 2012 predictions.

Lord Sotosyn, Friday, 30 December 2011 00:42 (twelve years ago) link

I'm on board with the Tigers winning the World Series

~connecticut~ (henrietta lacks), Friday, 30 December 2011 00:54 (twelve years ago) link

The choice of "centrist Republicans":

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/27/vote-obama-centrist-republican

Dr Morbius, Friday, 30 December 2011 01:12 (twelve years ago) link

haha -- I was waiting for someone to post it. I didn't want to be typecast.

Lord Sotosyn, Friday, 30 December 2011 01:14 (twelve years ago) link

2 bad the cult of Paul is more about exalting Him than any purported libertarian ideology, or i guess Gary Johnson could gain some third party traction once Mitt's inevitability becomes apparent to even the most die hard.

(that is assuming Paul doesn't go for a third party run. and for some reason i just don't think he will)

(will), Friday, 30 December 2011 02:04 (twelve years ago) link

he won't. gary johnson or, god forbid, buddy roemer could get some traction if not for the cult of paulsonality.

HOOS aka driver of steen, Friday, 30 December 2011 02:24 (twelve years ago) link

"Dead Skunk"'s a thousand times better, but right off the wire:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn9DSeDxnnI

clemenza, Friday, 30 December 2011 17:44 (twelve years ago) link

whatever point he's trying to make is undermined by presence of ukelele

higgs boson (the deli llama), Friday, 30 December 2011 17:47 (twelve years ago) link

i hope paul wins in iowa (have no idea how actually plausible this is) and then makes the gop beg him not to crush their dreams with a third-party run; i also hope he goes after obama's drones in an actual debate so that we can watch all the others try to change the subject before they're forced to heap too much death-fetishist praise on the kenyan commie.

difficult listening hour, Friday, 30 December 2011 17:49 (twelve years ago) link

^one of Mitt’s sons telling reporters that his dad doesn’t have to release his tax returns until President Obama releases his birth certificate and school transcripts.

(will), Friday, 30 December 2011 18:46 (twelve years ago) link

um wait, not reporters. senior citizen group apparently.

(will), Friday, 30 December 2011 18:49 (twelve years ago) link

Wolf Blitzer was pressing Romney on the tax returns the other day. I don't get quite why he's dodging. If there were something unseemly there, that's going to come out in time anyway; if it's just that he's obscenely rich, well, that can't be news by now, can it? Looking like you're hiding something always looks bad, and comments like his son's ain't going to help.

Tagg Romney?

clemenza, Friday, 30 December 2011 19:06 (twelve years ago) link

eh I think he's just dodging 'people talk about how rich he is'

iatee, Friday, 30 December 2011 19:09 (twelve years ago) link

There's a difference between people sorta knowing he's rich and people knowing an exact dollar amount to put on that idea. If he's worth over $50 million, it's going to turn off a lot of voters.

Aimless, Friday, 30 December 2011 19:21 (twelve years ago) link

I'm picturing Romney and his wife getting busted as they pull a Morty Seinfeld, walking into Denny's at 6:00 p.m., an hour after the early-bird special.

clemenza, Friday, 30 December 2011 19:31 (twelve years ago) link

ha probly a repost but new to me

http://www.anyclip.com/movies/bruno/ron-paul-interview/

Hunt3r, Friday, 30 December 2011 19:36 (twelve years ago) link


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