2011-12 All-Breakout Team
Which players are ready to emerge as stars this season? (PER Diem: Dec. 28, 2011)
By John Hollinger
If you were going to ask me which players were due for a breakout in the coming season, I would look for the following things:
First, I would look for a player who was already effective in whatever minutes he played.
Second, and rather obviously, I would look for youth; not all young players get better, but virtually all players who show dramatic year-to-year improvement are young.
Third, I would look for an increase in playing time, which would augment the perceived effect of the first two factors. Last year, for instance, Kevin Love won Most Improved partly because he actually improved, but mostly because he went from 28.6 minutes a game to 35.8 and so his per-game averages skyrocketed.
Finally, I would look for a player whose recognition was liable to increase dramatically due to factors beyond his control -- for instance, that his team was going to win more than people expected.
In other words, I would look for Ty Lawson.
Effective? Denver's mighty mite point guard had a PER of 17.99 last season after posting a 16.51 mark as a rookie. Despite standing 5-foot-11 he shot better than 50 percent from the floor each of his first two seasons.
Young? He's 24 and in his third NBA season.
Increased playing time? Lawson played 26.3 minutes per game last season, when he spent much of the year backing up Chauncey Billups. This season he's likely to average around 33 -- an increase similar to the one Love got a year ago.
Recognition? Nobody was talking about the Nuggets in preseason, but if they're as good as I suspect that is going to change fairly quickly. And when it does, Lawson's lightning forays up and down the court will get the lion's share of the attention.
All those are reasons I picked Lawson to win the Most Improved Player Award this season; on the heels of picking Love a year ago I'm feeling irrationally exuberant about my abilities in this department.
But regardless of how he does in the award voting, Lawson is the captain of my 2011-12 All-Breakout Team. As a reminder, I've been doing this for several years (here's last year's squad, led by Mr. Love) right as the season starts, so Wednesday we'll once again dip into the crystal ball to pick out a dozen players who will step up.
Before we start, however, there are a couple of popular picks that I didn't include. The most prominent one is Eric Gordon, whom I've heard lots of people touting because he'll be the go-to guy on a 50-loss team with a bad offense. Hate to break it to you, but last season he was the go-to guy on a 50-loss team with a bad offense; he just got dwarfed by the Blake Griffin highlights. Gordon also played nearly 38 minutes a game on a relatively fast-paced team; as a result he may have trouble just sustaining last season's touches, let alone increasing them. So unless he makes dramatic efficiency gains his numbers aren't going to jump the way people expect.
DeAndre Jordan is another one, although this one is as much semantics -- I had him on the team last year and I don't normally do back-to-backs. Also, while Jordan will get both more minutes and more exposure, I'm still not seeing where the non-highlight-film baskets are coming from. Lob City? Sure. Jump Hook City? Not so much.
Marcin Gortat seemed like a no-brainer for this team until we saw how good Robin Lopez looked for Phoenix in the opener. The Suns' center situation has time-share written all over it, which is likely to diminish Gortat's stats. So will a broken finger.
Finally, there's Indiana's Paul George. I absolutely love him, but with all the other scorers in Indiana I suspect it's a year too soon to have him on here.
So who made the squad? Along with Lawson, I've narrowed it down to 11 other players ready for a big step forward:
James Harden, Oklahoma City
This one feels like stealing because the breakout already mostly happened. Harden before the All-Star break a year ago: 10.3 points, 43 percent shooting; Harden after the All-Star break: 15.8 points, 46.5 percent shooting. A third-year pro who is only 22 years old, Harden could still play more minutes, too; he averaged only 28.6 even in his second-half blow-up a year ago. If he keeps coming off the bench he's a good bet to win the Sixth Man Award; if he starts his minutes will increase enough that he could win Most Improved.
Ryan Anderson, Orlando
One positive side effect of the bizarre Brandon Bass-Glen Davis trade by the Magic is that it makes Anderson the starting power forward. While Anderson still needs to improve on most of the subtle stuff -- defending, screening, etc. -- there is no question whatsoever that he will produce big numbers if he gets consistent minutes.
Over the past two seasons Anderson has averaged more than 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds per 40 minutes; he's only 23 years old and should keep improving those numbers. With Anderson likely to up last year's 22.3 minutes per game to something in the low 30s, look for him to average in the mid-to-high teens with several double-doubles.
Gerald Henderson, Charlotte
Again, the pre- and post-All-Star stats are telling. After Paul Silas took over and installed Henderson as his starting shooting guard, he averaged 14.3 points per game. With a brutal roster around him, the 24-year-old third-year pro will average around 35 minutes per game and could land a scoring average around 16 a game.
More importantly, however, he's an emerging force as a defensive stopper. Although he's short for a wing at 6-4, Henderson is an excellent athlete and has good technique. The recognition for his play on this end may be slower in coming around, but he'll be a long-term starter because of it.
Chase Budinger, Houston
I have a bit more misgivings about this one because I don't know he and Kevin Martin can co-exist side-by-side as starting wings; one of them has to guard the opponent's top wing scorer and zero of them are capable of doing so.
Nonetheless, too many other factors are in Budinger's favor. He averaged 14.4 points as a starter after the break a year ago, and he did it while finding much more efficient ways to score. If Budinger makes a decent share of 3s and draws an actual foul once in a while, his high-flying transition game should do the rest. Like a lot of guys on this list, he's a 23-year-old third-year pro and primed for a move up the charts. He also rebounds like crazy for a wing and could average five rips a game this year.
Jeff Teague, Atlanta
An obvious pick for this team after emerging as Atlanta's starting point guard during the playoffs, Teague became even more obvious during Tuesday night's opener when he kept knocking down open 3s. With a line-drive set shot Teague was 25-for-80 for his career; Tuesday night he made 3-of-4 while scoring 13 points and playing a major role in the Hawks' harassing, trapping defense.
Teague doesn't need to be Reggie Miller out there, he just has to hit one or two a game to get defenses to respect his jumper; that will allow him to use his explosive quickness to get to the basket. Unlike last year, minutes are assured unless he completely face-plants, so while he won't get many assists he'll likely average in the mid-teens in points.
Marcus Thornton, Sacramento
While I'm not crazy about the Kings bidding against themselves for Thornton in restricted free agency, the third-year pro is definitely primed for a big year and may prove Lawson's biggest rival for the Most Improved trophy. While the third-year pro is still virtually unknown outside Northern California, he averaged 21.3 points per game after the break a year ago and nets better than a point every two minutes for his career.
The next step for Thornton is adding quality to his quantity, a familiar refrain for the Kings. Thornton's a good shot creator who doesn't turn the ball over, but he'd threaten to make an All-Star team if he shot better from the floor (44.4 percent) or drew more fouls (just .215 free throw attempts per field goal attempt for his career). The other worry is that Sacto's overage of one-on-one scorers and shortage of passers will chip away at his numbers. Nonetheless, his scoring average is going to startle some people who weren't paying attention at the end of last season, and there's a chance he can still take it up another level.
John Wall, Washington
Just because something is hammer-you-over-the-head obvious doesn't mean it isn't true. While Wall had a rough opener against New Jersey, one has to think his output is bound to improve dramatically after an injury-plagued rookie year. Even in a poor performance on Monday, he had eight rebounds, five assists, three steals and drew 13 free throw attempts. Not too shabby. Wall may still struggle to score efficiently, but with his ability to fill the box score in so many ways his breakout potential is obvious.
Rodney Stuckey, Detroit
Last season Stuckey played 31 minutes a game for the league's third-slowest team. This year I expect the Pistons to play less slowly, and I expect Stuckey to move up to around 34 or 35 minutes a game. Combine those two factors with another year of experience and the departure of Richard Hamilton, and Stuckey's scoring average could move into the high teens.
He quietly took a solid step forward offensively last season and is getting his post game to the point where small guards are dead meat against him. And while the Pistons struggled in their opening-day loss, Stuckey did not -- he had 17 points on 11 shots, along with six dimes.
Tiago Splitter, San Antonio
Splitter isn't going to put up big numbers, but he's going to get a lot of run on a good team and will be very effective when he plays. Splitter's translated European stats suggested he was a starting-caliber NBA big man, which is why it surprised me to see him at the end of the Spurs' bench last year.
This isn't uncommon for San Antonio -- Fabricio Oberto suffered a similar fate before emerging as a starter a year later -- and Splitter's overseas numbers were much stronger than Oberto's. Don't look at the five points he had in the opener; look instead at the 33 minutes he played. Dude is gonna be a major factor his year.
Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia
It's easy to forget how young Holiday was when he came into the league. Although he's in his third season, he's only 21 years old and should take another step forward in 2011-12. While his opening game in Portland was less than scintillating, take the big-picture view here.
Holiday's two main areas to develop are drawing fouls and taking and making 3s, which will make him a much more efficient scorer. Those are areas where players often make dramatic strides at this point in their careers. There's no guarantee it happens for him, but I like the odds.
Danilo Gallinari, Denver
Since I began with a Nugget, let's close with one, too. Gallinari averaged nearly a point every two minutes as a Nugget last season, but barely played 30 minutes a game. With Wilson Chandler in China until further notice, he's set to boost that back into the 33-34 range, adding a couple of points to his per-game average. Meanwhile, his efficiency should also improve.
Like a lot of players on this list, Gallo is 23 years old and entering his third full season, putting him in the prime spot for a big step forward. He's shown the ability to both shoot from deep and put it on the floor and take it to the cup, and should benefit as much as anyone from the Nuggets' wondrous Lawson-Andre Miller point guard combo.
― Cooper Chucklebutt, Wednesday, 28 December 2011 20:46 (twelve years ago) link