2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

not new hampshire (unless huntsman suddenly gains traction).

maybe south carolina, then florida. seems to me those are the keys for romney. and to set him up well for that, he'd like to do very well in iowa (second place to ron paul is okay) and win decisively in new hampshire.

Any decent showing for Romney in South Carolina, where Gingrich has been the expected winner for weeks, will be good. Florida is definitely key with respect to how long the race is going to go. I certainly expect him to win by a significant margin in New Hampshire, but if there's somewhere where Romney buyer's remorse (which requires him to have substantial support in the first place) is going to be a phenomenon anywhere, it's there.

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

(unless huntsman suddenly gains traction)

Is there enough time for this to happen before January 10? Because I would SQUEEEEEEEE over all this Huntsman traction if it were to happen.

Huntsman is going nowhere imo.

That's what I suspect too, but primary season is a time when dreams come true!!!

huntsman is going nowhere in 2012, and he knows it. maybe 2016? depends on where the GOP is, philosophically, by that point.

there was some crazy number not long about about florida. gingrich was leading romney by something like 50 -- 30? can't recall precisely.

the problem, of course, is that gingrich hasn't really tried to run for president up to now; no campaign apparatus, few operatives, little ability to move quickly or react. and so now -- voila! -- he's a contender, but he hasn't been able to effectively capitalize on his new support, and he's lagging far behind in responding to the negative whirlwind following him. if he can ahead of that narrative and take control of it, he has a chance. but it isn't a great chance.

ultimately, the problem is that the majority of GOP base voters are "anti-romney," but they haven't been able to unite behind one candidate. with the many players in the field, romney can skate through with 25% support. if i were a base GOP voter, i'd be furious at the various "conservative alternatives" for splitting the vote so badly. rick perry's support is negligible, but if he was out, it would move, likely to gingrich. same for bachmann and santorum. field's too split, and it's playing into romney's robot hands.

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, December 27, 2011

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

Huntsman won't go anywhere in 2016, either. Apart from being out of step with the current GOP, and a son of great wealth without either a common touch or demonstrated leadership skills, he simply isn't a very good politician.

here's why iowa is important to romney (basically what i said above, spun into a romney nightmare-scenario).

won't happen, but . . .

see, this is my feeling too . . .

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- May still be time for conservs to coalesce round Perry/Bach/Sant'm. But fwiw Huckabee coalescence started in Nov '07: http://bit.ly/qXXSHq.

f--k you, "conservative alternatives" to romney, for getting in each other's way. all praise future pres. romney, btw.

It's possible that coalescing will occur in Iowa, but not nationally. None of the alternatives except maybe Gingrich are credible candidates as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

lol. you are being too kind. really!

at minimum, might want to add "/sanity" to that string of disqualifying traits.

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

There is evidence that C.K. Dexter Holland = gabbneb

Move to strike.

OMG, you are gabbneb?

GABBNEB?

go to the gay thread, sailors.

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- If any one group should support the militia movement, it should be the Jews.

NOW YOU'RE TALKING, DR. REP. RON PAUL.

okay, move over, crazy herman cain campaign video maker. you're second-fiddle now, by a longshot.

Not the weirdest. Definitely the saddest.

Does the guy say "C'mon, Newt Hampshire!" at the beginning, or am I mishearing? "Obama/trauma"--pretty good. Neil Young would have gone with "Obama/ride my llama."

neil young would have bashed the back of gingrich's head with an acoustic guitar.

you have to remember; clemenza is talking about Neil Young ca. 1980

I'm not sure of the exact timeline, but I think Neil was still pretty lefty in 1980--I think the flirtation with Reagan comes five years later, when Old Ways came out.

yeah Reagan endorsement was '84

the decay of pitch throughout that newt ad is just outstanding

ha!

Carrie Dann @CarrieNBCNews -- Perry says he will be "head yell leader" for balanced budget amendment. #biographical

what's this mean?!?

"head yell leader"?

It's a cheerleading thing. A&M and all.

oh that is just pathetic.

"Give me a 'Balanced'! Give me a 'Budget'! Give me a...give me a...uh..."

"look at me on my lady pyramid"

http://planetill.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/slim-chin.jpg

head yell leader!

Lol.

very interesting

Since the Iowa caucuses generally reward organization and passion, I suspect Paul will win them easily. That would likely propel him to a strong showing in libertarian New Hampshire. Somehow, I think Romney and the Republican establishment will find a way to defeat him in the vicious and expensive struggle that follows. But the dominant storyline at the Republican convention will be figuring out how to appease Paul sufficiently to ensure that he doesn’t launch a third party bid. And in so doing, the GOP will legitimize its isolationist wing in a way it hasn’t since 9/11.

of all the candidates, Paul seems the one most poised to go the third-party route, but I dunno how likely that really is - depends on how much money he has/can raise

of all the candidates, Paul seems the one most poised to go the third-party route

http://necolebitchie.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/donald-trump.jpeg

HI THERE!

nah he won't do it, it won't make him enough money

don't kill my buzz.

Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas -- Reduce length of the mile to improve fuel efficiency.

lol. newt gingrich would turn the white-house into an "idea machine"!

ThingsLikeThatHaveActuallyHappened @ TLTHAH -- Change definition of unemployment to improve employment rate

Wolf Blitzer just finished a big interview with Gingrich. I caught the last 15 minutes and some earlier clips. He went after Paul pretty hard--after resisting the theoretical, said he wouldn't vote for him if he were the nominee. He wants Romney to debate him for an hour in Iowa, no moderator. Newt wants to debate everyone. (Funniest part was when he said something like, "Herman Cain and I debated..."--yes, that was quite a spirited, contentious debate.) He bristled at what I thought was a pretty funny line from Romney--that not getting on the ballot in Virginia was less like Pearl Harbor and more like the Lucy episode in the chocolate factory. (Wolf's got Romney on there tomorrow.)

lol Shakey remember when you were predicting that the Tea Party was going to splinter off? I totally thought a couple months ago that it would do that and coalesce around a Paul/Cain (or perhaps Cain/Paul) ticket...

another interesting view:

We’re talking about a French-speaking Mormon vulture capitalist named Willard, who used to support abortion rights, gay rights, gun control, “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants, and combating climate change. He distanced himself from Reagan, attended Planned Parenthood fundraisers, and helped create the blueprint for the Affordable Care Act. He supported taxpayer-funded abortions and taxpayer-financed medical care for undocumented immigrants.

Given all of this, I thought there was no way Romney would coast through 2011 without facing brutal attack ads from his GOP rivals. But I was completely wrong — the attacks never came; Republican voters never heard about this record; and Romney appears well positioned to win the nomination.

i think the answer here is that the race was defined as romney and whomever-will-emerge-as-the-one-alternative-to-romney. while a dozen idiots and cranks were tearing at each other to be the "non-romney," romney just coasted along, occassionally fanning the flames but mostly watching idiots and cranks exposed themselves as idiots and cranks. and now it's just about too late. there isn't time for a "non-romney" to emerge, and so the base is stuck. enjoy your nominee, republican party.

lol Shakey remember when you were predicting that the Tea Party was going to splinter off?

oh I think this is still a definite possibility, but Paul is not a Tea Partier

correct. he's a racist libertarian.

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Here's Ron Paul giving a special, handwritten discount on the newsletters he never read or managed: http://twitpic.com/7xe4ze -RPN

and whether or not any of the remaining candidates have the necessary pull/finances/hatred of the GOP will be the big question. whatever happens, it's abundantly clear that the GOP convention will entail some kind of reckoning with the Tea Party wing, and it isn't going to be pretty.

you think so? i think the non-romneys have f--d things up so badly that romney will coast to the nomination (unless gingrich somehow recovers).

what's the scenario -- aside from the possibility that newt catches fire in, say, south carolina and florida -- in which that "reckoning" have to take place at the convention?