2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

That "uptick" is pretty marginal-looking. I see Romney and Paul in front, and Gingrich in third, which is not how things were going to go two weeks ago.

it isn't a huge uptick, but it's an uptick. and it coincides with two possibly important events: (a) ron paul's dismantling by the press and opponents, which might lessen the credibility of his attacks on gingrich (or those of paul's surrogate groups) and (b) gingrich's going on the offensive in iowa with advertisements (mostly against romney, IIRC).

anyway: ron paul, crazy since at least 1974. and from his "survival report" (an investment newsletter):

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- But whites are not allowed to express this same human impulse.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Blacks have black schools, clubs, and neighborhoods. The same is true of Hispanics. It is human nature that like attracts likes.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Whites don't vote for candidates that promise to promote white interests, whereas blacks & Hispanics do.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- I know it is considered impolite to worry about this trend.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- As whites are dying off, they are not replacing themselves. Meanwhile, Asian immigration is taking off & black births are booming.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- (headline) THE DISAPPEARING WHITE MAJORITY

read in reverse-order.

probably should have written read in reverse-order at the top (i am busting yr chops)

'black schools'/'like attracts likes' is o_O

here is why gingrich's seemingly-minor uptick might be important.

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- Why Romney may have taken Newt out too soon: http://bit.ly/sNJIOx. Short story: Left too much time for Romney buyer's remorse to set in.

So Iowa's on Jan 3rd and NH is on Jan 10. Are we gonna have a winner before South Carolina or not? I kind of want this to drag on well into March or April.

Yeah, while I've been predicting a Romney-Gingrich race to at least Super Tuesday since Newt's rise, Scheiber's basically admitting to a journalistic desire for a longer horserace, given hope by only the faintest of data. I don't expect Romney buyer's remorse, because the only new buyers in Iowa are at the margin. If that phenomenon is going to exist, it will be found in New Hampshire, after Iowa, imo. And I tend to doubt it.

not new hampshire (unless huntsman suddenly gains traction).

maybe south carolina, then florida. seems to me those are the keys for romney. and to set him up well for that, he'd like to do very well in iowa (second place to ron paul is okay) and win decisively in new hampshire.

Any decent showing for Romney in South Carolina, where Gingrich has been the expected winner for weeks, will be good. Florida is definitely key with respect to how long the race is going to go. I certainly expect him to win by a significant margin in New Hampshire, but if there's somewhere where Romney buyer's remorse (which requires him to have substantial support in the first place) is going to be a phenomenon anywhere, it's there.

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

(unless huntsman suddenly gains traction)

Is there enough time for this to happen before January 10? Because I would SQUEEEEEEEE over all this Huntsman traction if it were to happen.

Huntsman is going nowhere imo.

That's what I suspect too, but primary season is a time when dreams come true!!!

huntsman is going nowhere in 2012, and he knows it. maybe 2016? depends on where the GOP is, philosophically, by that point.

there was some crazy number not long about about florida. gingrich was leading romney by something like 50 -- 30? can't recall precisely.

the problem, of course, is that gingrich hasn't really tried to run for president up to now; no campaign apparatus, few operatives, little ability to move quickly or react. and so now -- voila! -- he's a contender, but he hasn't been able to effectively capitalize on his new support, and he's lagging far behind in responding to the negative whirlwind following him. if he can ahead of that narrative and take control of it, he has a chance. but it isn't a great chance.

ultimately, the problem is that the majority of GOP base voters are "anti-romney," but they haven't been able to unite behind one candidate. with the many players in the field, romney can skate through with 25% support. if i were a base GOP voter, i'd be furious at the various "conservative alternatives" for splitting the vote so badly. rick perry's support is negligible, but if he was out, it would move, likely to gingrich. same for bachmann and santorum. field's too split, and it's playing into romney's robot hands.

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, December 27, 2011

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

Huntsman won't go anywhere in 2016, either. Apart from being out of step with the current GOP, and a son of great wealth without either a common touch or demonstrated leadership skills, he simply isn't a very good politician.

here's why iowa is important to romney (basically what i said above, spun into a romney nightmare-scenario).

won't happen, but . . .

see, this is my feeling too . . .

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- May still be time for conservs to coalesce round Perry/Bach/Sant'm. But fwiw Huckabee coalescence started in Nov '07: http://bit.ly/qXXSHq.

f--k you, "conservative alternatives" to romney, for getting in each other's way. all praise future pres. romney, btw.

It's possible that coalescing will occur in Iowa, but not nationally. None of the alternatives except maybe Gingrich are credible candidates as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

lol. you are being too kind. really!

at minimum, might want to add "/sanity" to that string of disqualifying traits.

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

There is evidence that C.K. Dexter Holland = gabbneb

Move to strike.

OMG, you are gabbneb?

GABBNEB?

go to the gay thread, sailors.

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- If any one group should support the militia movement, it should be the Jews.

NOW YOU'RE TALKING, DR. REP. RON PAUL.

okay, move over, crazy herman cain campaign video maker. you're second-fiddle now, by a longshot.

Not the weirdest. Definitely the saddest.

Does the guy say "C'mon, Newt Hampshire!" at the beginning, or am I mishearing? "Obama/trauma"--pretty good. Neil Young would have gone with "Obama/ride my llama."

neil young would have bashed the back of gingrich's head with an acoustic guitar.

you have to remember; clemenza is talking about Neil Young ca. 1980

I'm not sure of the exact timeline, but I think Neil was still pretty lefty in 1980--I think the flirtation with Reagan comes five years later, when Old Ways came out.

yeah Reagan endorsement was '84

the decay of pitch throughout that newt ad is just outstanding

ha!

Carrie Dann @CarrieNBCNews -- Perry says he will be "head yell leader" for balanced budget amendment. #biographical

what's this mean?!?

"head yell leader"?

It's a cheerleading thing. A&M and all.

oh that is just pathetic.

"Give me a 'Balanced'! Give me a 'Budget'! Give me a...give me a...uh..."

"look at me on my lady pyramid"

http://planetill.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/slim-chin.jpg

head yell leader!

Lol.

very interesting

Since the Iowa caucuses generally reward organization and passion, I suspect Paul will win them easily. That would likely propel him to a strong showing in libertarian New Hampshire. Somehow, I think Romney and the Republican establishment will find a way to defeat him in the vicious and expensive struggle that follows. But the dominant storyline at the Republican convention will be figuring out how to appease Paul sufficiently to ensure that he doesn’t launch a third party bid. And in so doing, the GOP will legitimize its isolationist wing in a way it hasn’t since 9/11.

of all the candidates, Paul seems the one most poised to go the third-party route, but I dunno how likely that really is - depends on how much money he has/can raise

of all the candidates, Paul seems the one most poised to go the third-party route

http://necolebitchie.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/donald-trump.jpeg

HI THERE!

nah he won't do it, it won't make him enough money

don't kill my buzz.

Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas -- Reduce length of the mile to improve fuel efficiency.

lol. newt gingrich would turn the white-house into an "idea machine"!

ThingsLikeThatHaveActuallyHappened @ TLTHAH -- Change definition of unemployment to improve employment rate

Wolf Blitzer just finished a big interview with Gingrich. I caught the last 15 minutes and some earlier clips. He went after Paul pretty hard--after resisting the theoretical, said he wouldn't vote for him if he were the nominee. He wants Romney to debate him for an hour in Iowa, no moderator. Newt wants to debate everyone. (Funniest part was when he said something like, "Herman Cain and I debated..."--yes, that was quite a spirited, contentious debate.) He bristled at what I thought was a pretty funny line from Romney--that not getting on the ballot in Virginia was less like Pearl Harbor and more like the Lucy episode in the chocolate factory. (Wolf's got Romney on there tomorrow.)

lol Shakey remember when you were predicting that the Tea Party was going to splinter off? I totally thought a couple months ago that it would do that and coalesce around a Paul/Cain (or perhaps Cain/Paul) ticket...