2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

Paul's 08 run was p much what gathered the grassroots momentum for the Tea Party wasn't it? (and Palin's involvement cemented it). I seem to remember a lot of interest being kicked up despite not having a huge media presence (a friend of mine who was a rabid devotee was making claims of a deliberate media blackout)...didn't he break some fundraising record in 0x? Most money in a single day or something?

everything came from Rick Santelli. He is the true prophet.

FWIW, gingrich is now experiencing an uptick, in iowa and elsewhere.

_______________________________

What's the basis for this?

― illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Monday, December 26, 2011

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- In same way that Newt may have peaked too soon, seems he may have also flamed out too soon. 538 shows recent uptick: http://nyti.ms/sdrxjR.

Digby:

Libertarians who believe that "statism" is ok if comes from state of California but not the US government are not only living in the early 19th century, they are basically saying that their only real beef is if the government abridging individual freedom is the federal government. Tyranny on a smaller scale isn't their concern. And that isn't liberal or libertarian. It's just plain old antebellum era American politics -- which is what Ron Paul truly believes when you see his positions on issue after issue. And perhaps that explains those notorious newsletters better than anything else. The antebellum south is where his philosophy really comes from --- and where it leads. (And by the way, it shouldn't come as any surprise that the other famous congressional goldbug of the last quarter century was Jesse Helms. Birds of a feather...)

I have no beef with Ron Paul running. He has every right and a legitimate following who deserve to be heard in our politics. He's giving the conservatives heartburn because as much as they love his Antebellum politics when it comes to domestic issues, they're completely at odds with the right's jingoistic national chauvinism --- something that cuts to the heart of American conservatism. (And truthfully, in that as in so much else, Paul works against the tribal lines. Pre-civil war Southern culture was nothing if not martial. And it still is.)

But he cuts equally to the heart of progressive politics with his rigid dismissal of egalitarianism. You simply cannot find a worse candidate for the current era of gilded age inequality. He has absolutely no answers for the most pressing problem our country faces beyond telling us to basically dissolve the union. Somehow, I suspect that isn't going to get the job done.

Yep.

And yet, Alfred is correct. Ron Paul's libertarianism has (conveniently) been adopted by the modern GOP as its answer -- on domestic economic issues, at least -- to the wave that sent Pres. Obama into office.

That "uptick" is pretty marginal-looking. I see Romney and Paul in front, and Gingrich in third, which is not how things were going to go two weeks ago.

it isn't a huge uptick, but it's an uptick. and it coincides with two possibly important events: (a) ron paul's dismantling by the press and opponents, which might lessen the credibility of his attacks on gingrich (or those of paul's surrogate groups) and (b) gingrich's going on the offensive in iowa with advertisements (mostly against romney, IIRC).

anyway: ron paul, crazy since at least 1974. and from his "survival report" (an investment newsletter):

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- But whites are not allowed to express this same human impulse.

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Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Blacks have black schools, clubs, and neighborhoods. The same is true of Hispanics. It is human nature that like attracts likes.

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Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Whites don't vote for candidates that promise to promote white interests, whereas blacks & Hispanics do.

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Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- I know it is considered impolite to worry about this trend.

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Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- As whites are dying off, they are not replacing themselves. Meanwhile, Asian immigration is taking off & black births are booming.

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Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- (headline) THE DISAPPEARING WHITE MAJORITY

read in reverse-order.

probably should have written read in reverse-order at the top (i am busting yr chops)

'black schools'/'like attracts likes' is o_O

here is why gingrich's seemingly-minor uptick might be important.

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- Why Romney may have taken Newt out too soon: http://bit.ly/sNJIOx. Short story: Left too much time for Romney buyer's remorse to set in.

So Iowa's on Jan 3rd and NH is on Jan 10. Are we gonna have a winner before South Carolina or not? I kind of want this to drag on well into March or April.

Yeah, while I've been predicting a Romney-Gingrich race to at least Super Tuesday since Newt's rise, Scheiber's basically admitting to a journalistic desire for a longer horserace, given hope by only the faintest of data. I don't expect Romney buyer's remorse, because the only new buyers in Iowa are at the margin. If that phenomenon is going to exist, it will be found in New Hampshire, after Iowa, imo. And I tend to doubt it.

not new hampshire (unless huntsman suddenly gains traction).

maybe south carolina, then florida. seems to me those are the keys for romney. and to set him up well for that, he'd like to do very well in iowa (second place to ron paul is okay) and win decisively in new hampshire.

Any decent showing for Romney in South Carolina, where Gingrich has been the expected winner for weeks, will be good. Florida is definitely key with respect to how long the race is going to go. I certainly expect him to win by a significant margin in New Hampshire, but if there's somewhere where Romney buyer's remorse (which requires him to have substantial support in the first place) is going to be a phenomenon anywhere, it's there.

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

(unless huntsman suddenly gains traction)

Is there enough time for this to happen before January 10? Because I would SQUEEEEEEEE over all this Huntsman traction if it were to happen.

Huntsman is going nowhere imo.

That's what I suspect too, but primary season is a time when dreams come true!!!

huntsman is going nowhere in 2012, and he knows it. maybe 2016? depends on where the GOP is, philosophically, by that point.

there was some crazy number not long about about florida. gingrich was leading romney by something like 50 -- 30? can't recall precisely.

the problem, of course, is that gingrich hasn't really tried to run for president up to now; no campaign apparatus, few operatives, little ability to move quickly or react. and so now -- voila! -- he's a contender, but he hasn't been able to effectively capitalize on his new support, and he's lagging far behind in responding to the negative whirlwind following him. if he can ahead of that narrative and take control of it, he has a chance. but it isn't a great chance.

ultimately, the problem is that the majority of GOP base voters are "anti-romney," but they haven't been able to unite behind one candidate. with the many players in the field, romney can skate through with 25% support. if i were a base GOP voter, i'd be furious at the various "conservative alternatives" for splitting the vote so badly. rick perry's support is negligible, but if he was out, it would move, likely to gingrich. same for bachmann and santorum. field's too split, and it's playing into romney's robot hands.

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, December 27, 2011

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

Huntsman won't go anywhere in 2016, either. Apart from being out of step with the current GOP, and a son of great wealth without either a common touch or demonstrated leadership skills, he simply isn't a very good politician.

here's why iowa is important to romney (basically what i said above, spun into a romney nightmare-scenario).

won't happen, but . . .

see, this is my feeling too . . .

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- May still be time for conservs to coalesce round Perry/Bach/Sant'm. But fwiw Huckabee coalescence started in Nov '07: http://bit.ly/qXXSHq.

f--k you, "conservative alternatives" to romney, for getting in each other's way. all praise future pres. romney, btw.

It's possible that coalescing will occur in Iowa, but not nationally. None of the alternatives except maybe Gingrich are credible candidates as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

lol. you are being too kind. really!

at minimum, might want to add "/sanity" to that string of disqualifying traits.

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

There is evidence that C.K. Dexter Holland = gabbneb

Move to strike.

OMG, you are gabbneb?

GABBNEB?

go to the gay thread, sailors.

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- If any one group should support the militia movement, it should be the Jews.

NOW YOU'RE TALKING, DR. REP. RON PAUL.

okay, move over, crazy herman cain campaign video maker. you're second-fiddle now, by a longshot.

Not the weirdest. Definitely the saddest.

Does the guy say "C'mon, Newt Hampshire!" at the beginning, or am I mishearing? "Obama/trauma"--pretty good. Neil Young would have gone with "Obama/ride my llama."

neil young would have bashed the back of gingrich's head with an acoustic guitar.

you have to remember; clemenza is talking about Neil Young ca. 1980

I'm not sure of the exact timeline, but I think Neil was still pretty lefty in 1980--I think the flirtation with Reagan comes five years later, when Old Ways came out.

yeah Reagan endorsement was '84

the decay of pitch throughout that newt ad is just outstanding

ha!

Carrie Dann @CarrieNBCNews -- Perry says he will be "head yell leader" for balanced budget amendment. #biographical

what's this mean?!?

"head yell leader"?

It's a cheerleading thing. A&M and all.

oh that is just pathetic.

"Give me a 'Balanced'! Give me a 'Budget'! Give me a...give me a...uh..."

"look at me on my lady pyramid"

http://planetill.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/slim-chin.jpg

head yell leader!

Lol.

very interesting

Since the Iowa caucuses generally reward organization and passion, I suspect Paul will win them easily. That would likely propel him to a strong showing in libertarian New Hampshire. Somehow, I think Romney and the Republican establishment will find a way to defeat him in the vicious and expensive struggle that follows. But the dominant storyline at the Republican convention will be figuring out how to appease Paul sufficiently to ensure that he doesn’t launch a third party bid. And in so doing, the GOP will legitimize its isolationist wing in a way it hasn’t since 9/11.

of all the candidates, Paul seems the one most poised to go the third-party route, but I dunno how likely that really is - depends on how much money he has/can raise

of all the candidates, Paul seems the one most poised to go the third-party route

http://necolebitchie.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/donald-trump.jpeg

HI THERE!