2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

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that's not really the theory. it's a theory that that'll be the only meaningful legacy of the run, but not that ron paul is running just to set up his son

Mordy, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:01 (twelve years ago) link

Barely related: I've been reading that book on the '60 election I mentioned a while back, and I just got to the part where Adlai Stevenson said that he found Paul (the Apostle, I presume) appealing and Peale (Norman Vincent, who questioned the idea of a Catholic president) appalling. I think I would have liked Stevenson, but I'm not sure how anyone came to the conclusion that he was someone who'd beat Eisenhower.

clemenza, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:26 (twelve years ago) link

Not to mention sending him against Ike twice!

Lord Sotosyn, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:28 (twelve years ago) link

Even more bizarre, there was still a faction of the party--maybe 10 or 15%, including Eleanor Roosevelt--who wanted to run him a third time in '60. The way the author presents it, Stevenson was a dream come true for the most condescending, snobbish wing of the party, which leads me to believe he would have been crushed by Nixon.

clemenza, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:35 (twelve years ago) link

I don't mean to sound like I'm simplifying a man who, like I say, I think I would have liked, and who I'm sure had lots going for him. I don't know a whole lot about him.

clemenza, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:38 (twelve years ago) link

Ok, someone explain something to me. Why did Gingrich tank? I don't understand why. Unlike Perry and Cain (and possibly Paul now, although his case is a bit different), he hasn't revealed some heretofore unknown flaw to the public. It just seems like his fall was really random.

fireman princess (furnace mane), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:49 (twelve years ago) link

the negative tv ad blitz?

Matt Armstrong, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:51 (twelve years ago) link

Why did Gingrich tank?

Liberals aren't the only ones who consider him a boor and a pedant.

Lord Sotosyn, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:53 (twelve years ago) link

Sounds like he just got pummeled over the air in Iowa--I've heard it described as a non-stop barrage of ads from Paul and Romney's surrogates (with no money to counter). I know what you mean, though (I've been saying the same thing): did all these ads reveal anything that these people didn't already know? You have to find it ironic (or hilarious), though, that Gingrich comes across as so wounded and forlorn these days, having been so supremely vicious himself way back when. Another example of ego: his amazement that because he decided he'd refrain from attacking everyone else, the rest of the world would naturally follow his lead.

clemenza, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 00:58 (twelve years ago) link

"Amazement" should read "assumption."

clemenza, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:01 (twelve years ago) link

Ron Paul: A man who lives in a glass house, yet still throws stones anyway.

Aimless, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:03 (twelve years ago) link

Yeah, I forgot about all the attack ads. I'm in a state that doesn't matter so I'm not really exposed to them.

fireman princess (furnace mane), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:13 (twelve years ago) link

I guess we did actually matter in the 08 dem primary, but that was like a one-time novelty.

fireman princess (furnace mane), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:14 (twelve years ago) link

FWIW, gingrich is now experiencing an uptick, in iowa and elsewhere.

so maybe he peaked too early, and fell too early. we'll see.

he is a huge windbag, which can be a turnoff, but this is precisely the quality that people were championing when he was riding high (e.g., "he's so smart!, he'll show-up that stupid president obama in the debates").

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:38 (twelve years ago) link

RON PAUL:

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Those who don't commit sodomy, get blood transfusions, or swap needles are virtually assured of not getting AIDS...
__________________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- ...unless they are deliberately infected by a malicious gay.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:41 (twelve years ago) link

What if they got a blood transfusion from a malicious gynecologist?

fireman princess (furnace mane), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:46 (twelve years ago) link

then that means they would have to know about the true family line of the elders, and...you know what THAT means

*ominous theme music*

Z S, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 01:48 (twelve years ago) link

interesting theory that ron paul's 2012 run is really just laying the groundwork for a more serious run by his son, rand, in 2020.

Well, yes. I might expect it even sooner than that.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 03:08 (twelve years ago) link

FWIW, gingrich is now experiencing an uptick, in iowa and elsewhere.

What's the basis for this?

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 03:08 (twelve years ago) link

I've also heard the theory floated that Herman Cain's candidacy was a just a test-run for his son Vincent, 34 years old and presently a banker.

(Actually it was me who floated the theory, just now.)

clemenza, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 03:14 (twelve years ago) link

Herman Cain was merely a jokey spokesmodel for the Koch Brothers' messaging.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 03:28 (twelve years ago) link

Paul's 08 run was p much what gathered the grassroots momentum for the Tea Party wasn't it? (and Palin's involvement cemented it). I seem to remember a lot of interest being kicked up despite not having a huge media presence (a friend of mine who was a rabid devotee was making claims of a deliberate media blackout)...didn't he break some fundraising record in 0x? Most money in a single day or something?

Heck Yep (henrietta lacks), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 05:44 (twelve years ago) link

everything came from Rick Santelli. He is the true prophet.

Matt Armstrong, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 06:04 (twelve years ago) link

FWIW, gingrich is now experiencing an uptick, in iowa and elsewhere.

_______________________________

What's the basis for this?

― illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Monday, December 26, 2011

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- In same way that Newt may have peaked too soon, seems he may have also flamed out too soon. 538 shows recent uptick: http://nyti.ms/sdrxjR.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 07:32 (twelve years ago) link

Digby:

Libertarians who believe that "statism" is ok if comes from state of California but not the US government are not only living in the early 19th century, they are basically saying that their only real beef is if the government abridging individual freedom is the federal government. Tyranny on a smaller scale isn't their concern. And that isn't liberal or libertarian. It's just plain old antebellum era American politics -- which is what Ron Paul truly believes when you see his positions on issue after issue. And perhaps that explains those notorious newsletters better than anything else. The antebellum south is where his philosophy really comes from --- and where it leads. (And by the way, it shouldn't come as any surprise that the other famous congressional goldbug of the last quarter century was Jesse Helms. Birds of a feather...)

I have no beef with Ron Paul running. He has every right and a legitimate following who deserve to be heard in our politics. He's giving the conservatives heartburn because as much as they love his Antebellum politics when it comes to domestic issues, they're completely at odds with the right's jingoistic national chauvinism --- something that cuts to the heart of American conservatism. (And truthfully, in that as in so much else, Paul works against the tribal lines. Pre-civil war Southern culture was nothing if not martial. And it still is.)

But he cuts equally to the heart of progressive politics with his rigid dismissal of egalitarianism. You simply cannot find a worse candidate for the current era of gilded age inequality. He has absolutely no answers for the most pressing problem our country faces beyond telling us to basically dissolve the union. Somehow, I suspect that isn't going to get the job done.

Lord Sotosyn, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 13:52 (twelve years ago) link

Yep.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 14:23 (twelve years ago) link

And yet, Alfred is correct. Ron Paul's libertarianism has (conveniently) been adopted by the modern GOP as its answer -- on domestic economic issues, at least -- to the wave that sent Pres. Obama into office.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 14:26 (twelve years ago) link

That "uptick" is pretty marginal-looking. I see Romney and Paul in front, and Gingrich in third, which is not how things were going to go two weeks ago.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 14:32 (twelve years ago) link

it isn't a huge uptick, but it's an uptick. and it coincides with two possibly important events: (a) ron paul's dismantling by the press and opponents, which might lessen the credibility of his attacks on gingrich (or those of paul's surrogate groups) and (b) gingrich's going on the offensive in iowa with advertisements (mostly against romney, IIRC).

anyway: ron paul, crazy since at least 1974. and from his "survival report" (an investment newsletter):

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- But whites are not allowed to express this same human impulse.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Blacks have black schools, clubs, and neighborhoods. The same is true of Hispanics. It is human nature that like attracts likes.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- Whites don't vote for candidates that promise to promote white interests, whereas blacks & Hispanics do.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- I know it is considered impolite to worry about this trend.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- As whites are dying off, they are not replacing themselves. Meanwhile, Asian immigration is taking off & black births are booming.

_______________________________

Ron Paul Newsletter @RP_Newsletter -- (headline) THE DISAPPEARING WHITE MAJORITY

read in reverse-order.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:12 (twelve years ago) link

probably should have written read in reverse-order at the top (i am busting yr chops)

'black schools'/'like attracts likes' is o_O

Never translate German (schlump), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:14 (twelve years ago) link

here is why gingrich's seemingly-minor uptick might be important.

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- Why Romney may have taken Newt out too soon: http://bit.ly/sNJIOx. Short story: Left too much time for Romney buyer's remorse to set in.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:29 (twelve years ago) link

So Iowa's on Jan 3rd and NH is on Jan 10. Are we gonna have a winner before South Carolina or not? I kind of want this to drag on well into March or April.

Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:33 (twelve years ago) link

Yeah, while I've been predicting a Romney-Gingrich race to at least Super Tuesday since Newt's rise, Scheiber's basically admitting to a journalistic desire for a longer horserace, given hope by only the faintest of data. I don't expect Romney buyer's remorse, because the only new buyers in Iowa are at the margin. If that phenomenon is going to exist, it will be found in New Hampshire, after Iowa, imo. And I tend to doubt it.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:36 (twelve years ago) link

not new hampshire (unless huntsman suddenly gains traction).

maybe south carolina, then florida. seems to me those are the keys for romney. and to set him up well for that, he'd like to do very well in iowa (second place to ron paul is okay) and win decisively in new hampshire.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:46 (twelve years ago) link

Any decent showing for Romney in South Carolina, where Gingrich has been the expected winner for weeks, will be good. Florida is definitely key with respect to how long the race is going to go. I certainly expect him to win by a significant margin in New Hampshire, but if there's somewhere where Romney buyer's remorse (which requires him to have substantial support in the first place) is going to be a phenomenon anywhere, it's there.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:49 (twelve years ago) link

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:52 (twelve years ago) link

(unless huntsman suddenly gains traction)

Is there enough time for this to happen before January 10? Because I would SQUEEEEEEEE over all this Huntsman traction if it were to happen.

Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:52 (twelve years ago) link

Huntsman is going nowhere imo.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:54 (twelve years ago) link

That's what I suspect too, but primary season is a time when dreams come true!!!

Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:55 (twelve years ago) link

huntsman is going nowhere in 2012, and he knows it. maybe 2016? depends on where the GOP is, philosophically, by that point.

there was some crazy number not long about about florida. gingrich was leading romney by something like 50 -- 30? can't recall precisely.

the problem, of course, is that gingrich hasn't really tried to run for president up to now; no campaign apparatus, few operatives, little ability to move quickly or react. and so now -- voila! -- he's a contender, but he hasn't been able to effectively capitalize on his new support, and he's lagging far behind in responding to the negative whirlwind following him. if he can ahead of that narrative and take control of it, he has a chance. but it isn't a great chance.

ultimately, the problem is that the majority of GOP base voters are "anti-romney," but they haven't been able to unite behind one candidate. with the many players in the field, romney can skate through with 25% support. if i were a base GOP voter, i'd be furious at the various "conservative alternatives" for splitting the vote so badly. rick perry's support is negligible, but if he was out, it would move, likely to gingrich. same for bachmann and santorum. field's too split, and it's playing into romney's robot hands.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:55 (twelve years ago) link

51 gabbneb AGAIN if we ever get the board back

― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, December 27, 2011

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:56 (twelve years ago) link

Huntsman won't go anywhere in 2016, either. Apart from being out of step with the current GOP, and a son of great wealth without either a common touch or demonstrated leadership skills, he simply isn't a very good politician.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 15:59 (twelve years ago) link

here's why iowa is important to romney (basically what i said above, spun into a romney nightmare-scenario).

won't happen, but . . .

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 16:01 (twelve years ago) link

see, this is my feeling too . . .

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- May still be time for conservs to coalesce round Perry/Bach/Sant'm. But fwiw Huckabee coalescence started in Nov '07: http://bit.ly/qXXSHq.

f--k you, "conservative alternatives" to romney, for getting in each other's way. all praise future pres. romney, btw.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 16:58 (twelve years ago) link

It's possible that coalescing will occur in Iowa, but not nationally. None of the alternatives except maybe Gingrich are credible candidates as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 17:00 (twelve years ago) link

as a matter of experience/intelligence/leadership capability.

lol. you are being too kind. really!

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 17:13 (twelve years ago) link

at minimum, might want to add "/sanity" to that string of disqualifying traits.

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 17:14 (twelve years ago) link

idgi. is gabbneb posting here?

There is evidence that C.K. Dexter Holland = gabbneb

jaymc, Tuesday, 27 December 2011 17:14 (twelve years ago) link

Move to strike.

illegal crew member (C.K. Dexter Holland), Tuesday, 27 December 2011 17:14 (twelve years ago) link

OMG, you are gabbneb?

GABBNEB?

Daniel, Esq., Tuesday, 27 December 2011 17:15 (twelve years ago) link


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