J.R. Smith has literally been shanghaied away for the foreshortened 2011-2012 NBA season: rolling ILH sandbox thread

man i really need to renew my insider

nah man, rick reilly's columns are free

lol u have some vendetta against hollinger bro? those projections are computerized, and he sometimes says if he thinks his projections will be off one way or another

denver #2 in the west seems batshit but there is definitely to something of the "waves of doods" theory in a compressed schedule year

who is the actual go-to guy or "star" of that team though...gallinari??

forget it section, its waves of doods

Andre Miller, Corey Brewer, Rudy Fernandez, Al Harrington, and Chris Andersen is not and especially intimidating second wave.

-d

Chris Anderson is always pr intimidating

For like 10 minutes, not as a starter.

Or a larger role or whatever.

this is great

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lwi75sn50T1qi0ij1o1_400.jpg

lol u have some vendetta against hollinger bro? those projections are computerized, and he sometimes says if he thinks his projections will be off one way or another

― k3vin k., Tuesday, December 20, 2011 1:30 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Permalink

"computerized?" It's based on a formula he cooked up, if the results are BS it's his fault.

I think Hollinger is a fraud, yes.

I would be wililng to wager money that Hollinger has almost every single slot in the West wrong, except OKC. Like I would bet that outside of OKC he does no better than random.

Andre Miller, Corey Brewer, Rudy Fernandez, Al Harrington, and Chris Andersen is not and especially intimidating second wave.

― polyphonic, Tuesday, December 20, 2011 5:03 PM (59 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink

that's an above average bench. Miller is a top 5 backup PG for sure. Probably too good; I imagine they deal him at the deadline.

you don't really need to go more than 9 deep anyway.

They have an above average bench and an above average team.

yeah top 2 is crazy. That's a huge assumption of amazing chemistry. Their run last year was no fluke but the west is so rough.

denvers got prob the best bench in the nba, tho maybe the bulls would have something to say abt that, plus theyll be getting those shanghaied guys back, not that i agree w/seeding them 2nd, tho i do find the compressed season theory behind it compelling

feel like denver finishing 2nd is something that would be really cool and that ppl would want to happen more than anything.

hollingers whole preview speaks to the fact that the west is pretty wide open besides the fact that okc will be a huge disappointment if they don't finish first and make a deep run.

Could OKC withstand injuries and still make a run at the top spot this year? I suspect not.

looking at the west i don't really think there's any team that could withstand injuries and make a serious run!

hollingers whole preview speaks to the fact that the west is pretty wide open

― cad, Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:52 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink

yeah srsly 6 wins differential projected between 2nd and 8th

haha this season is so funny, kinda feel like they should fuck w/the schedule and cba every year just to make it more interesting

lol u have some vendetta against hollinger bro? those projections are computerized, and he sometimes says if he thinks his projections will be off one way or another

― k3vin k., Tuesday, December 20, 2011 1:30 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Permalink

"computerized?" It's based on a formula he cooked up, if the results are BS it's his fault.

I think Hollinger is a fraud, yes.

― Matt Armstrong, Tuesday, December 20, 2011 7:02 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Permalink

its obvs not perfect and the formula does sometimes err wildly but cherry picking one guy is kinda missing the point

looking at the west i don't really think there's any team that could withstand injuries and make a serious run!

― cad, Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:56 PM (5 minutes ago)

this is basketball, no team can withstand a serious injury and make a serious run

xp most of the "projections" differ from the player's last 2 seasons numbers by what, 5%? if you're reading the player profiles for his projections, ur doin it rong

yeah there are some teams who have good back ups at an important positions, like the bulls could prob lose noah and not be much worse, but extended injuries to key guys are generally p devastating xp

damn, I missed nba so much. I am actually about to watch some of Golden State vs. Sac Kings exhibition game, lol.

xp most of the "projections" differ from the player's last 2 seasons numbers by what, 5%? if you're reading the player profiles for his projections, ur doin it rong

― k3vin k., Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:04 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Permalink

His whole rep is based on stats! If you read Hollinger for actual game analysis ur REALLY doing it wrong.

ur both doing it wrong, check out how i do it *does it right*

its obvs not perfect and the formula does sometimes err wildly but cherry picking one guy is kinda missing the point

― Cooper Chucklebutt, Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:02 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Permalink

There is no point. It's a worthless formula, just like PER is a worthless formula.

per was rated the most predictive of irl wins out of any stat in this study i read fwiw

average per of a team's players?

im sure it was weighted by minutes but yeah basically

any idea where I can read it?

i mean i dont really remember the specifics but it mustve been something like that - ill try to dig it up for you using deep googling - but just not right now

they concluded the best judgement of player quality was how many minutes they got, aka coaches knew better than any stat which players were good, but out of the stats per was the best

Paul Millsapp had the 5th best PER last year... There's cherry picking and then there's picking a cherry the size of a watermelon.

yeah its far from perfect, but i do think there are lots of players that it judges more accurately than the prevailing wisdom, obvs its p much useless as far as defense goes - and milsap is 29th on list im looking at fwiw

yeah I fucked up on basketball reference somehow

the worst part of PER is that it rewards taking more shots on a lower percentage (which to me means being LESS efficient), which is why it shits on a guy like Afflalo.

like kevin martin top 20 gtfo

well it considers usage which imo is necessary because there are guys who only take a few open threes a game, which are not looks a first scoring option on team will get, besides that tho its all abt efficiency, which is why martin is rated so high, he scores tons points on v few shots

but yeah it for sure over rates martin

I don't know how anyone could scroll through the top 200 PER list and not think "this stat is broken."

tyrus thomas is 51st and afflalo is 176th.

it's not an efficiency measure at all, it's an efficacy measure.

(and not a great one)

like why is tyrus 51st? Cuz when he's on the court a lot of shit happens. None of the shit that happens is efficient.