Thunder, Clippers rise to the top
In the Western Conference's new pecking order, OKC and L.A. lead the way
By Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle
Basketball Prospectus
It was only a preseason game, but Monday night's matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, was a microcosm of what is likely to play out all season in the Western Conference: an upheaval of traditional powers. In Chris Paul's debut, the upstart Clippers ran and lobbed all over the Lakers in a 114-95 victory. If Basketball Prospectus' SCHOENE Projection System is to be believed, the Clippers might continue to get the better of the Lakers when the games count.
Here's how SCHOENE, as detailed in the forthcoming Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12, predicts things will shake out this season in the Western Conference. We've broken it down by tiers of the new pecking order out West.
The Favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder
After an unexpected trip to the Western Conference Finals last spring, the Thunder's time appears to have come. The gap between Oklahoma City and the conference's top teams was relatively small last year. While other teams have lost key contributors and suffered the effects of age, the rising Thunder kept the roster entirely intact before trading center Byron Mullens to Charlotte. (His 85 minutes played in 2010-11 will be missed.)
While Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook rightfully draw most of the attention, it's the youthful duo of third-year players James Harden and Serge Ibaka, both 22, that could make the difference for the Thunder by continuing to grow in the key roles they took over after Oklahoma City traded Jeff Green to the Boston Celtics. The Thunder also gets the benefit of a full season with a healthy, skinny Kendrick Perkins in the middle. Look out.
The Contenders: Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs
Within the next tier, rising West powers meet the conference's aging dynasties. The Clippers are most obviously on the ascent after adding Paul and Chauncey Billups to a promising young core. The roster still has major holes, with little talent of note behind frontcourt starters Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, and any free agents the Clippers might sign to add depth will be stopgap solutions.
Paul and Billups have to figure out how to co-exist in the backcourt after both dominated the ball in the past, and Vinny Del Negro is in charge of making this mix work. Still, the Clippers have so much dynamic talent that they will likely find their way into the battle for home-court advantage. In fact, SCHOENE pegs them as the conference's second-best team after Oklahoma City.
Even as defending champions, this is a season of transition for the Mavericks, who are biding their time until they can get under the cap next summer. In the meantime, adding Lamar Odom, Vince Carter and Delonte West was a terrific save after Tyson Chandler decided to leave for a lucrative, long-term offer from the New York Knicks.
Dallas might be as good in the regular season as 2010-11, but the kind of unexpected postseason dominance the Mavericks enjoyed a year ago is unlikely from this group, which is short on quality size in the middle. The Spurs have one last title run left in them. Should veterans Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker hold up during the compact season, San Antonio can play with anyone in the conference. A key injury might take the Spurs out of the running, however.
Last in this group is Portland. Once on the same track as Oklahoma City, the Blazers' young core was derailed by injuries to Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. That shouldn't overshadow the quality talent Portland still has available. The Blazers' top seven of guards Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews and Jamal Crawford, forwards LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Gerald Wallace and center Marcus Camby goes as deep as any in the league. Nate McMillan got more support in the frontcourt with the additions of Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas, and will have tremendous lineup flexibility.
Kobe Bryant and the Lakers will be looking up at the West's elite teams this season.
Whither the Lakers? Age has battered the Lakers' supporting cast, which is entirely too thin for a team with a payroll north of $80 million. Long before trading Odom, the Lakers had slipped from the role of favorites into the crowded group of aspirants to the West title. Without their super-sixth man, the Lakers would have a tough time surviving any serious injury to center Andrew Bynum, who is hardly known for his reliability. As it is, the Lakers are counting on getting contributions from newcomers like Jason Kapono and Troy Murphy, who were buried on their respective benches last postseason. After the trio of Bynum, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, the Lakers just can't compare to the conference's top teams.
Denver's superb second-half run has been all but forgotten after the Nuggets had the misfortune of facing the Thunder in the opening round of the playoffs, then saw free agency take a toll on their depth. Still, Denver GM Masai Ujiri brought back the team's most important free agents (guard Arron Afflalo and center Nene) and replaced the others by trading for Corey Brewer, Rudy Fernandez and Andre Miller. Watch out for first-round pick Kenneth Faried. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Faried's translated NCAA statistics suggest he's as ready to contribute as any rookie in the league.
Fighting for a playoff spot: Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves
In some corners, the Grizzlies are seen as part of the second tier in the West. SCHOENE was more skeptical of their chances of maintaining the momentum of last spring's playoff run, even before Memphis lost reserve forward Darrell Arthur for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Indeed, the Grizzlies were able to knock off San Antonio and take Oklahoma City the distance without injured forward Rudy Gay, now back in the lineup. However, that required an unexpected breakout from guard Tony Allen, whose past history indicates he's likely to regress this year. Memphis' lack of depth behind starting posts Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph could also spell doom.
Who might usurp the Grizzlies' spot if they do fall out of the playoffs? The Rockets have been lurking the last two seasons, and again figure to finish right around .500. If Houston stays in the hunt, a deadline deal for a 7-footer who could fill the Rockets' gaping hole in the middle might make the difference.
SCHOENE's most surprising projection is that the Timberwolves will go all the way from the West cellar to the playoff race. Not only was Minnesota's point differential better than last season's record would indicate, the Timberwolves have substantially improved by adding point guard phenom Ricky Rubio and No. 2 overall pick Derrick Williams. The biggest upgrade of all might be on the sidelines, where Rick Adelman replaces the overmatched Kurt Rambis.
Tyreke Evans and the Kings have a promising young roster, but don't yet project to be a playoff team.
It's easier to pick out the top team in the West than the bottom one. With a healthy Tyreke Evans and a full season of Marcus Thornton, Sacramento should be much more competitive than a year ago, putting them closer to the conference's other growing young teams.
The Hornets will almost assuredly surrender their playoff spot after trading Paul, but don't peg them for last place, either. New Orleans still boasts a solid, veteran starting five built around budding star Eric Gordon. Only the Hornets' poor bench will keep them from seriously competing for a playoff spot.
After failing to land either Chandler or DeAndre Jordan in free agency, Golden State brings back a similar cast. Newcomer Kwame Brown and rookie Klay Thompson aren't difference-makers, which indicates another year below .500. Utah is one of the conference's most interesting teams. In the midst of a transition between contending and rebuilding, the Jazz's frontcourt reflects both eras. Utah still has veterans Al Jefferson, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap, but recent top-five picks Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter will force their way into playing time.
As their core players age, the Suns might be closer to the bottom of the conference than to contending for a playoff spot. Signing Shannon Brown to a one-year deal injected additional youth into Phoenix's creaky starting five, but not enough to arrest the Suns' rapid slide backwards since reaching the 2010 Western Conference Finals. By the deadline, trading Steve Nash might be Phoenix's best option.
― Cooper Chucklebutt, Tuesday, 20 December 2011 17:11 (twelve years ago) link