2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

Quayle yesterday, John Sununu (Sr.) today--Romney's really raiding the Crossfire-era closet for surrogates. Expecting Liddy Dole, Ralph Reed, Richard Thornburgh, and Al D'Amato any day now.

http://www.nhpr.org/post/romney-sics-sununu-gingrich

politico ran a story this evening that newt's rise has really taken romney off-guard, and forced him to go on offense at a time (and in a way) he didn't want to.

What Romney really wanted was stroll through the primaries, with no serious challengers.

Next episode begins tomorrow!

It's going to be a tricky debate for both of them. Romney has to snap out of his slumber and attack; Gingrich will likely be forced to step down from Mount Buddha and actually say less than complimentary things about Romney--and may even get pushed enough that he turns nasty.

How come there are never any debates at like 3 PM on Sunday? (I know: football.) I'd like to watch one in real time one of these days.

newt doesn't have to do that at all! in fact, he should keep being somewhat generous toward his GOP opponents, as he has been in these debates, and take only sly, veiled attacks at romney (unless things get out of hand). he is good at those types of attacks, actually, and he gets a lot out of them in terms of silent signaling to his constituency.

Maybe, maybe not. Allowing yourself to be attacked unchecked is a risk. Ask John Kerry.

Good post/links from Sullivan:

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/12/does-romney-have-time-to-go-negative.html

The gist being that Romney will be running the much greater risk.

Here's some Nate Silver for ya.

The resistance to Romney among his party's activists is so strong that in my view, he's cooked. Once they converge on their preferred anti-Romney choice, which appears to be His Newtness atm, they'll wipe Romney out of the picture.

But it really doesn't matter who they choose as their anti-Romney, as long as they choose someone. Newt's big recent surge makes it odds on that the activists have finally stopped dithering and wistfully yearning for Palin as their paladin, and he has inherited the nutty Cain coalition.

Meanwhile the conservative pundits have united in their loathing for Newt.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/newt-gingrich-will-not-be-the-republican-nominee--even-if-it-means-a-brokered-convention/2011/08/25/gIQARQ0DiO_blog.html

I'm not as convinced as Klein is that the pundits hold such sway over the nomination process though.

really curious to see how this whole this plays out; i'm not mr. historian but i believe we are in unknown territory in a lot of ways in this election.

the last democratic contest got very heated; underlying this was the fact that its two lasting candidates were both well respected and loved in the party, and normally could draw big constituencies within it.

if the gop contest shakes down to just romney and gingrich, it would be nearly the opposite situation. neither one of them has a majority (or even very large) support base within the party, each has huge negatives at either the elite or base level. how nasty can it get if nobody likes either enough to fight? i wonder if it will turn out to be sort of... dull.

If Gingrich does amass an early lead against Romney, I would not be too surprised to see a late-entrant whom establishment Republicans could rally behind.

i would, that person doesn't exist

^^^

It'd be too late. Delegates promise themselves to candidates months in advance; it'd take a lot of scrambling to get them to swtich.

also that person has no route to securing the number of delegates required

xpp

Those are all serious difficulties, true, but I think the need to have someone who could stop Newt would be so great that otherwise improbable things could become possible, as Klein put it.

lol Rove in total damage control mode

there is no way a long primary benefits the GOP - it drains money for one thing

yes he explained that twaddle to George Stephanopoulus this morning

Kristol had something yesterday on the white-horse idea:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/gop-s-valentine-s-day-option_611730.html

Really seems delusional to me.

I mean I love that he equates the state of the current GOP with the state of the Dems in 2008 but it's just demonstrably untrue - as I think Nate Silver pointed out about 2008, the Dems would have unified behind either frontrunner. The GOP shows no such eagerness to unify.

xp

Kristol is delusional 24/7 god I hate that guy

There is a precedent to the "white knight" scenario. In this case the 1976 Democratic primary, in which the more liberal/Northern wing got scared by Carter's ascendance and fielded Church and Brown as late candidates - too late, in that case, though they won several late primaries.

they did not get the nomination tho

the dem primary in 2008 involved the varied spectrum of the left-center-right leaning dems taking (pretty sure anyway..) while the gop split involves the insane rump of the party refusing to sign on with anyone remotely sane

Kristol's article, key quote:

"...another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates..."

1200 of 2282? So this mystery contender would pop in out of nowhere and sweep the board by winning 95% of the remaining delegates? This is straight up delusion.

such a hateful buffoon, he's a disgrace to journalism

you really have to read anything from bill kristol as coming from bizarro world

Read the whole thing, with its charts of when delegates will be chosen and its discussion of filing deadlines. It wouldn’t be easy to pull off a late draft or a late entry, but it’s not as impossible as conventional wisdom assumes.

The key, I think, would be if both Romney and Gingrich stumbled during January. If that were to happen, there would be a window of opportunity in February—during the gap between the first spurt of January primaries and Super Tuesday on March 6. The window probably closes around Valentine’s Day—Tuesday, February 14—so let’s call the late entry the Valentine’s Day option. That could be the last chance (unless there’s a deadlocked convention, which isn’t totally outside the realm of possibility either) for Republicans to throw off the old suitors and run into the arms of a new Prince Charming. Or two. And Valentine’s Day is for the young.

translation: the conventional wisdom is true, we are pretty much fucked.

ryan-rubio! *eyroll*

1200 of 2282? So this mystery contender would pop in out of nowhere and sweep the board by winning 95% of the remaining delegates? This is straight up delusion

They wouldn't need to win 95% of the remaining delegates because presumably the front-runner at that point wouldn't have 100% of the already-awarded delegates. A simple plurality would be enough.

Plurality would be enough to deadlock the convention, perhaps, but not enough to win. Besides, there ain't no white knights waiting out there for the draft.

Silly above and beyond all the rest: the idea that Paul Ryan would be a good candidate to send into a general. Wasn't there a swift and pronounced push back against his budget both within and without the party?

Besides, there ain't no white knights waiting out there for the draft.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Sarah_Palin_Germany_3_Cropped_Lightened.JPG/170px-Sarah_Palin_Germany_3_Cropped_Lightened.JPG

Oh wait.

1) there are no candidates out there with that drawing power. if there were, they would have run already
2) if they enter late they have 0% of the already awarded delegates, so they would need 95% of the remaining delegates to secure a majority for the nomination. otherwise they just muddy the field even worse and the end result is a brokered convention.

i would, that person doesn't exist

― slandblox goole, Friday, December 9, 2011 2:23 PM (41 minutes ago)

silver says he'd put the % of this happening at 5-10, which i don't really see either

there are no candidates out there with that drawing power. if there were, they would have run already

make it happen GOP.

http://www.thefastertimes.com/files/2010/11/Jeb-Bush.JPG.jpg

Kristol throws out wild stuff almost every Sunday, then just ploughs ahead with something new a few weeks or few months later as if it never happened. You'd think he'd love Gingrich.

I'm quite sure Palin is dreaming the dream furiously. I'd be happy with Gingrich as the next-most-entertaining/next-most-erratic after her.

I'd be happy with Gingrich as the next-most-entertaining/next-most-erratic after her.

read this as "next most erotic," and got sick a little.

Man, I'm lucky I didn't pick that post for a Freudian slip.

gingrich-palin fanfic

oh that ^^^^^ idea is horrible.

The 22nd amendment:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

The way I read this, GW Bush could run for Vice President, with Jeb at the top of the ticket!

President Newt will deal with that amendment in due course.

The way I read this, GW Bush could run for Vice President, with Jeb at the top of the ticket!

well, then jeb's VP could be . . . oh, i don't know

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KxT3bZCpsqw/SOlij2VAmoI/AAAAAAAACho/ibVig12dRCk/s400/cheney.jpg

anyone else, i guess.

Chris Moody @Chris_Moody -- RT @seanhannity Trump's Debate for the candidates is a go!

hell yeah

it's good to know that, in america -- where we value freedom, toughness, and rugged individualism -- a blowhard, imbecile millionaire can still host a debate even if almost all the candidates don't show up.

re: Michele Bachman:

"She came up to see me four times. She would call me and ask me for advice," Trump said. "She said if she wins, she would like to think about me for the vice presidency. Most importantly, I did a two-hour phone call for her with her people. ... And after all that, she announced she was not going to do the debate. It's called loyalty. How do you do that? It's amazing to me."

Trump event is gonna be cancelled now, c'mon

yeah, love that bachmann quote.

donald trump is an amazing windbag. and such a real-estate guy: all bluster, all the time. really an embarrassment to the GOP. he (and, truthfully, "candidates" like herman cain) lower the party by using its machinery as a personal platform. i've never seen anything quite like it.