2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

wait 'till FOXNews becomes gingrich's ground campaign.

WAIT 'TILL GINGRICH CO-OPTS ALL OF FORMER CANDIDATE HERMAN CAIN'S GROUND CAMPAIGN

the cain campaign is a moving train

Monk, keep flagellating yourself into excitement.

I think the Marshall and Klein pieces have it exactly right: there's no logical reason why this is happening (and 20 logical reasons why it shouldn't be happening), I don't think it's going to last, but I'm a lot less sure of that today than I was three weeks ago. I'm assuming that Alfred and Shakey Mo Collier don't view Marshall and Klein the same way they would, say, Cokie Roberts or David Gregory. So where do they get the certainty that Marshall and Klein don't have?

Klein's field is economics and economics policy, in which he is expert. At campaign analysis he's as helpless as Cokie and Gregory, and thanks to deadlines and the internet cycle yesterday's "blunder" by Romney gets more discussion than it deserves.

the GOP wants to win, and with Romney they have a chance. Plus: a President Romney can nominate all manner of conservative horrors as Cabinet members, judges, and SCOTUS justices. That's how he mitigates conservative dissatisfaction.

the fox interview doesn't have one really horrible moment for mitt, but in general it was a disaster. Seemed petulant, manic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26ePA49HLes

Okay--I've found him pretty smart on politics, too. Anyway, I guess we'll see. (The reasons you cite for Romney are the reasons I was citing months ago; like everyone, I'm mystified as to why the needle never budges an inch for him.)

because he sucks! and is a robot!

the simple fact is the GOP is in complete disarray, and contrary to what others have argued here, are no more prone to "fall in line" than Democrats are. the party is fundamentally dysfunctional at the moment.

BAIER: What was the last book you read or are reading?

ROMNEY: I’m reading sort of a fun one right now, so I’ll skip that. But I just read “Decision Points” by President Bush.

Ugh. This highlights one of Romney’s biggest problems: He’s a stiff who doesn’t really understand how he’s perceived. Of all the candidates, he’s the one who needs to tell people about the “fun” book he’s reading! It would have helped him enormously if he said John Grisham or Brad Thor’s latest thriller.

It's not like Mitt is some obviously electable candidate. Primary voters may have been told that he's the most electable but then they turn on the debate and Newt (and Cain!) run circles around him.

Gingrich and Cain haven't run circles 'round him in debates!

see, everyone agrees: romney is a petulant, manic, sucky robot.

BTW, romney's really reading the red-jaime series from diana gabaldon. it is his secret shame.

In reference to something earlier today, I thought the Frum piece was excellent too. I don't think he's saying anything that Sullivan hasn't been hammering away at for months, but obviously it carries extra weight coming from someone who actually worked for W.

Mitt's fun book was probably either Chuck Eddy's Stairway to Hell or something from the Goosebumps series.

they (and Bachmann and Perry) have benefited from Romney fatigue.

"I’m reading sort of a fun one right now, so I’ll skip that."

Just to get really pointlessly analytical, what's weird about that is "so" instead of "but." "But" I probably wouldn't notice; "so" = fun is something you should never discuss?

"Decision Points" = not a fun read

the GOP wants to win, and with Romney they have a chance.

Facts not at all in evidence

http://www.landmarkaudio.com/productimages/111462.jpg

when Newt wins the nom I'll liveblog this for your pleasure

Facts not at all in evidence

the GOP mantra since '94.

If they wanted to win they'd circle their wagons round Huntsman. He's Republican lite like Obama and he's new and the country is mighty dissatisfied in an inchoate (stupid) way

Herman is still convinced "the other side" is behind his woes: "Once I moved into the top tier, I think they became threatened. My star was shining and rising too fast...they wanted to take that shine away." It's really too bad that he will never get to apply his detective skills to the intricacies of geopolitical maneuvering.

Romney will be the flip-flop, unloved, robot candidate who doesn't quite make it. There's plenty of fire in the GOP belly and no-one who can express it (and still win).

fuck Newt & Forstchen have written a lotta books

I can't wait for the ILX Book Club on these mofos

m white otm

I still think romney's gonna get it because but I think that he won't be winning primaries w/ healthy margins, prob even after he's 'sealed it'. newt et al just have so much crap they'll be dealing w/ along the way, even if they pick up some states, it's just so hard to imagine them making it to the finish line.

but "the GOP wants to win" doesn't really mean anything. everybody wants to win every election but there are definitely elections where 'the most electable' candidate didn't get the nomination. what is the GOP? 'party insiders'? fox news? the voters? people who showed up at tea party rallies? I think most people who are crazy enough to support the present day republican party might not see 'electability' the same way we do.

er romney's gonna get it but*

dunno how that because snuck in

anyway I would like to remind people who think that romney is 100%, you can literally double your money on intrade if you wanna put it where yr mouth is

No thanks -- that's what you chaps are for.

Question for those of you who were here in November of 2007: was there anybody posting at the time that Hillary had it locked up, and dismissing the idea that Obama might win? I realize it's far from a perfect analogy, as Obama was still more or less a blank slate, and Gingrich is anything but.

I didn't care much about the primaries until January '08 and Bam won in Iowa. But now it looked inevitable: he'd had a fairly big head of steam from the end of 2006 through 2007. It's hard to remember now, but lots of establishment Corner types were impressed by his prose and demeanor.

Which is to say: I thought HRC inevitable through summer '07, didn't care much until Iowa, then concluded that this man would be the nominee and probably the president.

Sure--it was a lot easier to predict Obama after Iowa, which is why I'm curious what people were posting a month beforehand, the point we're at now. If Gingrich were to win Iowa, predicting he'll win the nomination would seem a lot less chimerical than it does now. (And if Romney were to win, I wouldn't go on about how anything's possible.)

not a relevant parallel imho

just too many things that don't line up - the state of the party, the state of the country, the public's relationship to the candidates (Romney's already run for president once!), etc.

clinton was the frontrunner but not inevitable vs. romney's not the frontrunner but is inevitable

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih6XjO_fhrI

haha I wish that clip didn't cut off the music

ugh kramer is the worst

It was the best of times, the worst of times

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VWbYF4460g

Oh man, that laugh...the story of how I ended up rooting for Newt Gingrich in 2011 so Barack Obama would have an easier time in 2012 all begins with that laugh.

can't wait until we can call the gen election thread "Newtonian Mechanics"

Which is to say: I thought HRC inevitable through summer '07, didn't care much until Iowa, then concluded that this man would be the nominee and probably the president.

i thought rick santorum would be the next president of the united states, and nothing i have seen has changed my view.

you all are going to be praising my predictive powers when pres. santorum takes office in 2013.

his first act in office: imprison dan savage.

he'll figure out the "charges" later.

Santorum's on Piers Morgan within the hour--he may mention you, Daniel.

he should, as i am his constituency.

well, me and his wife and their 42 kids and his parents and his in-laws and a few friends from the "No Sex 'Till Marriage" support group he sponsors.

too bad american girl dolls haven't got the vote yet

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

by 30 points. 30!