PROJECTED STARTERS
DEREK FISHER, PG
Projection: 8.6 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.7 ast per 40 min; 7.83 PER | Player card
• Tough, physical, veteran point guard. Loves pull-up jumper in transition.
• Poor finisher. Rarely attacks paint. Prefers catch-and-shoot 3 or one-dribble.
• Lacks footspeed but very strong and crafty. Often matches up better against 2s.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fisher ran circles around the league's agents this summer, but come this winter it's the league's other point guards that may be running circles around him. The Lakers were savaged by opposing point guards in both rounds of the playoffs, and it will be interesting to see how the Lakers view Fisher now that the championship halo is gone.
As long as L.A. was winning titles, every contribution of his was seen as gravy, no matter how minimal. With the Lakers no longer reigning, all that changes, and point guard is the one position this team absolutely, positively must address. Between Fisher and Steve Blake, Lakers point guard was hands down the worst position in the league among playoff teams. Or nearly among any team, for that matter. One could credibly argue that only New Jersey's small forwards surpassed them in awfulness.
Fisher comes off a season in which he shot 38.9 percent from the floor and ranked in the bottom 10 point guards in both TS% and usage rate -- in other words, he struggled to create shots, and he couldn't make the ones he created. This is difficult for fans to grasp because physically he looks like the same player, but he's not: His 40-minute scoring rate is barely half what it was three years ago. Defensively, he allowed a 17.7 PER to opposing point guards and had the worst Synergy numbers on the team. His rebound rate was very nearly the worst in the league (see Jamal Crawford comment). At times, it seemed the only thing keeping him in the starting lineup was the fact that Steve Blake was even worse.
Fisher's physical defense against big guards still has value, as does his overall savvy, but this needs to be put into context -- the guy averaged 9.4 points per 40 minutes, shot 38.6 percent on 2-pointers, can't create off the dribble, and can't keep quick guards in front of him. It's become increasingly difficult to defend the idea that Fisher should remain a 30-minute starter. If we're being brutally honest, on many rosters he wouldn't even be the backup.
KOBE BRYANT, SG
Projection: 26.3 pts, 6.0 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min; 21.31 PER | Player card
• Devastating post-up guard who makes midrange jumpers over top of defense.
• Excellent ballhandler for size. Sees floor, can create and finish. Natural scorer.
• Smart defender but intensity fluctuates. Rarely asked to defend good players.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Call him the master of the elbow jump shot. Bryant was the only player in the league to take more than 150 shots from 10-15 feet and also make more than half his tries. The only player to make more shots from that distance was Elton Brand. But unlike Brand, who was taking those shots when left open on pick-and-pop plays, Bryant was doing it on mid-post turnarounds or off his own dribble with a defender in his face. He still nearly led the league, making 51.5 percent from that distance, and with one more make he would have been first (see Paul Millsap comment).
While knee problems kept Bryant from practicing nearly the entire season and appeared to limit him in the playoffs, it was tough to tell much was wrong in the regular season. He led the NBA in points per 40 minutes (you won't believe who was second, by the way -- see chart), ranked ninth at his position in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt despite all those midrange Js, and shared the ball well enough to post a solid pure point rating too. About the only blemish was a 32.3 percent mark on 3s, a shot Bryant has never been particularly good at.
Most points per 40 minutes, 2010-11
Player Team Points/40
Kobe Bryant LAL 29.9
Kevin Martin Hou 28.8
Kevin Durant OKC 28.6
Carmelo Anthony NY 28.5
LeBron James Mia 27.6
Min. 500 minutes
Defensively, Bryant remained solid in one-on-one play (although he rarely left the weak side). His Synergy numbers were in the middle of the pack and opposing PERs mustered just an 11.8 PER against him, according to 82games.com, but the Lakers allowed 4.58 points more per 100 possessions with him on the court -- the worst figure on the team. He tends to go on cruise control if he thinks he can get away with it and his first-team All-Defense selection by the "coaches" was a joke, but between his size, strength and competitiveness he's a plus defender. Bryant also remains among the better rebounding guards in the game, ranking 10th at his position in rebound rate.
METTA WORLD PEACE, SF
Projection: 11.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 11.17 PER | Player card
• Elite one-on-one wing defender with quick hands, superior strength and good feet.
• Has lost a step and can't jump at all. Struggles chasing through screens.
• Very poor finisher. Poor shot selection. Can make corner 3s. Can't dance.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When he wasn't entertaining the masses with his moves on the dance floor -- we haven't seen him shuffle his feet like that since his last shot fake -- the former Ron Artest was busy changing his name to something more ethereal. As our J.A. Adande noted, the PA announcer now can say "Peace out" when he's substituted.
World Peace can still defend, posting the best defensive plus-minus on the Lakers at minus-4.66 points per 100 possessions, according to basketballvalue.com, and surrendering just a 13.9 PER to opposing small forwards, according to 82games.com. Synergy rated him second only to LeBron James among small forwards, and he led his position in steals per minute.
It's easy to see why: With his combination of physicality, quick feet and fast hands, few wings can do much against him one-on-one. Where he struggles is chasing quick players through screens, because he doesn't have the nimbleness to cut through all the traffic. Perhaps those dance lessons will help. Also, Artest has basically given up on defensive rebounding, ranking 67th out of 68 small forwards.
Offensively, World Peace (and don't worry, I feel as ridiculous writing "World Peace" as you do reading it) really struggled last season. He shot only 39.7 percent and had another precipitous drop in his free-throw rate, and while he was moderately effective as a corner 3-point shooter (35.6 percent), he shot a ghastly 27.1 percent on long 2s. Additionally, his physicality can't compensate for a lack of leaping ability; he made only 57.1 percent in the basket area, whereas the average small forward converted 64.6 percent.
As a result, his TS% was one of the worst at his position, and he only moderately compensated with his passing ability. Out of 67 small forwards, he was 55th in points per 40 minutes and 53th in TS%. By any name, that's not good enough.
PAU GASOL, PF
Projection: 19.4 pts, 10.8 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 22.13 PER | Player card
• Long, highly skilled post scorer with excellent dexterity and 18-foot range.
• Smart player, sees floor well. Can make jump hook with either hand.
• Blocks shots but lacks strength and can be bullied on blocks. Good rebounder.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gasol played some of the best ball of his career over the first month of the season and finished with career bests in PER, free throw percentage and turnover ratio. While much of Gasol's progress has been so incremental that you'd have to stare through a magnifying glass to notice, his improvement as a midrange shooter over the past two seasons has been fairly dramatic. Additionally, he's been able to cut his turnovers by relying more on this shot, which he now makes with uncanny accuracy.
Gasol hit 48.7 percent of his long 2s and 46.2 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet last season. And it wasn't a small sample -- he tried 413 of them. That keeps the ball out of traffic, and led to the third-lowest miscue rate among centers (I have Gasol ranked with the centers because he played slightly more of his minutes there than at power forward, given the lengthy absence of Andrew Bynum). Additionally, he remains an exquisite passer who ranked fifth among centers in pure point rating.
Defensively, Gasol's stats are solid overall, but there's a stark division between his results at the 4 and the 5. Gasol struggles when he has to play center because he isn't physical, but his length and mobility makes him a plus at the power forward position. 82games.com shows some of this via opponent PER, which is much worse when Gasol plays center. He won't foul, posting the third-lowest rate among centers, and has improved his effort on the boards considerably since the Celtics punked him in the 2008 NBA Finals. That said, he's primarily a finesse player, and Andrew Bynum's presence helps him considerably.
ANDREW BYNUM, C
Projection: 16.9 pts, 13.0 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 20.38 PER | Player card
• Huge post weapon who can establish deep position and score from short range.
• Excellent shot-blocker. Won't rotate to perimeter but protects basket.
• Good post defender. Capable passer but tends to hold ball. Very injury-prone.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bynum played in only 54 games, bringing his total over the past four years to 124 absences -- more than a third of the schedule. But when he plays he's an All-Star caliber center. Bynum posted his fourth straight 20-plus PER even though he saw fewer post touches, costing him three points off his 40-minute scoring average. Instead, Bynum worked the glass, posting a 19.2 rebound rate that ranked ninth among centers.
Not that he was a slouch when he caught the ball in close. Bynum shot 72.7 percent in the basket area last season, leading to the ninth-best TS% among centers, plus he's an above-average passer out of the block. The one quibble with him offensively is that he tends to stop the ball as he surveys the defense to make his move.
Bynum's value on defense is obvious. He provides a strong interior presence, ranking seventh in blocks per minute, and uses his huge frame to wall off the lane against opposing big men. Opposing centers mustered only an 11.4 PER against him, while opponents averaged 3.14 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
"On the floor" being a key variable, given all the time he's missed. He's an All-Star performer when he plays, but after missing chunks of four straight seasons with knee problems he can't be penciled in for more than 50 games or so. And once again, he'll start the season on the sideline -- this time as a result of a five-game suspension for a gratuitous cheap shot on Dallas' J.J. Barea in the playoffs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RESERVES
LAMAR ODOM, PF
Projection: 15.8 pts, 10.5 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 17.68 PER | Player card
• Mobile combo forward with outstanding ballhandling skill for size.
• Average outside shooter who lacks great burst. Vastly improved rebounder.
• Strong defensive player. Can guard physical 4s or step out to perimeter.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Odom had a career season at age 31. That's the good news. The bad news is he is one of seven players whose stats can be expected to sharply regress this season, based on a phenomenon called the Fluke Rule. While these seasons are not all flukes per se, the rule of thumb still holds: Any player past the age of 28 whose player efficiency rating (A) jumps by more than three points in a season and (B) is above 14 will see his PER regress the next season, on average, by roughly the same amount. The odds are better than 90 percent that his PER will go down, and in many cases the decline is steep.
This is particularly true for players like Odom that are on the wrong side of 30 and had never played this well previously. Odom's PER last season was a career high because he shot the lights out both in the basket area (70.2 percent) and on 3-pointers (38.2 percent). However, based on his career norms he seems unlikely to sustain such lofty percentages.
As a reminder, here's how last year's Fluke Rule class fared (see chart). While it rarely works out this neatly across the entire group, the mean Fluke Rule player will lose three points on his PER the following season. (Nice Fluke Rule players are similarly affected).
Fluke Rule, Class of 2009-10
Player 2008-09 PER 2009-10 PER 2010-11 PER Change
Corey Maggette 16.91 20.40 15.89 -4.51
Jamal Crawford 15.15 18.50 14.29 -4.21
Nazr Mohammed 7.71 19.64 15.98 -3.66
Ben Wallace 12.18 15.84 12.29 -3.55
Sam Dalembert 13.22 16.84 14.10 -2.74
Luke Ridnour 12.95 17.81 15.08 -2.73
Carlos Boozer 17.28 21.42 18.90 -2.52
This year, the other seven players joining Odom in Flukeville are Brad Miller, Tony Allen, Chris Andersen, Earl Boykins, Tyson Chandler, Tony Parker and Chris Wilcox. Miller may not play this year after having microfracture over the summer, but of the other seven we can expect six to decline. Parker and Chandler, who were 28 years old on Dec. 31 of last season, are slightly less susceptible than their older cohorts, but all will be hard-pressed to maintain last season's production.
Fluke Rule, Class of 2010-11
Player Team 2009-10 PER 2010-11 PER Change
Chris Wilcox Det 12.04 18.09 +6.05
Tyson Chandler Dal 12.58 18.45 +5.87
Earl Boykins Mil 12.98 17.62 +4.64
Tony Allen Mem 14.23 18.40 +4.17
Tony Parker SA 16.49 20.44 +3.95
Lamar Odom LAL 15.98 19.50 +3.52
Brad Miller Hou 12.96 16.37 +3.41
Chris Andersen Den 15.88 19.03 +3.15
While the eight players in this season's crop run the gamut from "no freaking way he does that again" (Wilcox) to "potential glaring exception" (Parker), Odom represents a fairly typical Fluke Rule player and it's clear how his numbers could fall back to earth. Last season he blew away his career highs in field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and TS%. If those revert back to his usual levels -- which is nearly always what happens -- his PER will come along for the ride. The result would still leave Odom as one of the most effective sixth men in the game because of his defense, rebounding, ballhandling and not insignificant scoring. But it's unrealistic to expect him to shoot 70 percent at the rim and drill 38 percent of his 3s.
STEVE BLAKE, PG
Projection: 8.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 4.9 ast per 40 min; 7.54 PER | Player card
• Limited, low-mistake point guard who rarely attacks paint. Good court vision.
• Mediocre defender. Tall and competitive, but lacks strength and footspeed.
• Strictly spots up for 3s offensively. Doesn't push tempo or draw fouls.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A year ago, the Lakers patted themselves on the back for locking up Blake with a four-year deal. Now, they're staring at the calendar praying for 2014. The damage may have been partly self-inflicted. Blake clearly took his role player status to heart, but was so ridiculously passive on offense that it was hard to justify keeping him on the floor. Two brow-raising stats underscore this: He played 1,581 regular-season minutes without drawing a single basket-and-1, and he made seven baskets at the rim the entire season. By comparison, even Mike Bibby had 25.
Blake wasn't even a successful sniper. While he made a respectable 37.8 percent on 3s, he shot so infrequently that he averaged just 8.1 points per 40 minutes, the second-worst mark among point guards. Even worse, he shot an unfathomably bad 28.8 percent on 2-point shots (Let me repeat that: 28.8 percent. 2-point shots), and drew 30 free throw attempts the entire season to rank dead last among point guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
As a result of all this, he had the fourth-worst PER among point guards. Forget about starting, he'll have to show significant progress just to be an acceptable backup. One suspects he was being a bit too nice last season while trying to fit in with his championship teammates and will look for his offense more this time around. Plus, it's inconceivable that he could shoot that badly on 2s again. On the other hand, he's 31 and has never had a PER above the league average. In 20-20 hindsight, this contract was a bad risk that turned out awful.
SHANNON BROWN, G (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 17.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 13.83 PER | Player card
• High-flier with deep range but fluctuating accuracy. Short for a shooting guard.
• Limited handle, struggles to create and penetrate. Doesn't see floor well.
• Undersized but active defender. Athletic, strong and very effective in 2010-11.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brown has many disparate strengths that would suggest a greater overall whole. He's an amazing dunker, he shot 91.1 percent from the line, he can shoot from distance ... and yet, he's basically a generic backup shooting guard. Brown's biggest problem is that his outside shot looks great but doesn't go in as often as you might think. He made 34.9 percent of his 3s and really struggled on long 2s -- he shot just 32.2 percent between 10 and 23 feet. The fact Brown shot so many long 2s instead of 3s also hurt his numbers, and the reliance on 20-footers explains why such a good athlete could have one of the lowest free throw rates at his position.
Brown also struggles to create for himself, lacking a particularly elusive handle and sometimes dribbling himself into bad spots. The upshot is that he scored fairly often (18.2 points per 40 minutes) but not all that efficiently (49th at his position in TS%) and with relatively poor assist and turnover rates.
Defensively, Brown has yet to have his superior leaping translate into average rebounding, but his Synergy numbers last season were outstanding and he held opposing shooting guards to a piddly 10.4 PER. While nothing in his previous track record suggests he's quite this good on defense -- his 2009-10 stats were completely, utterly average -- at the very least he's a solid performer at this end.
MATT BARNES, SF
Projection: 12.8 pts, 8.7 reb, 2.8 ast per 40 min; 13.02 PER | Player card
• Slender combo forward who runs floor well. Good cutter. Lacks strength.
• Erratic outside shooter. Weak ballhandler with high bounce. Poor finisher.
• Tough and energetic. Outstanding rebounder for size. Fouls frequently.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Barnes missed 29 games but otherwise had perhaps his best pro season as L.A.'s bench energizer, providing easy buckets from all his cuts off the ball to offset another humdrum outside shooting performance. There are better floor spacers -- he made only 31.8 percent of his 3s last season and is at 32.8 percent for his career -- but Barnes converted 64.3 percent of his shots at the rim and has good shot selection. He hardly ever takes long 2s (he had only 29 in 2010-11), and as a result finished 15th among small forwards in both TS% and shooting percentage. Overall, his average of 14.0 points per 40 minutes was healthy production for a secondary offensive player.
Despite his skinny build, Barnes is an outstanding rebounder for a small forward -- he finished fourth at his position in rebound rate -- because he's quick to the ball and pursues every shot. Defensively he's active, ranking in the top third of his position in both blocks and steals, but he's also a bit wild. Barnes gets outmuscled in physical matchups, especially when he tries to play up front, and as a result he fouls like mad. At a whistle every 8.0 minutes, only one small forward was cited more often. He was solid if unspectacular in one-on-one defense, and while he's certainly not a stopper because he's fairly slow for a small forward, he competes and is fairly long.
THEO RATLIFF, C (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
No projection | Player card
• Shot-blocking veteran center with slender build. Runs floor fairly well.
• Has little use in half-court offense. Can't shoot or post up. Bad rebounder.
• Easily overpowered by physical centers. Best in zones or versus pick-and-roll.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ratliff played the Lakers' first eight games before a knee injury effectively ended his season; he played only four minutes the rest of the regular season and just one in the playoffs. He's 38 and may not have much left in the tank, especially if the knee injury compromised the quick-leaping ability that is his main redeeming skill.
LUKE WALTON, SF
No projection | Player card
• Combo forward with great court vision but serious back problems.
• Can overpower wings in post but average outside shooter. Good strength.
• Handles ball well but lacks burst on perimeter. Tweener defensively.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Walton labored through 58 agonizing games while trying to play through back pain, and was wholly unsuccessful in the endeavor. He shot just 32.8 percent from the field, nearly doubled his turnover rate from the previous season, and in 486 minutes he made only six shots at the rim. He would have challenged for the league's lowest free-throw rate had he played a few more minutes, not to mention the worst PER.
If he can shake off the back trouble, Walton still fills a niche as a rugged combo forward who can pass like nobody's business. But after two injury-riddled seasons, his career is in serious jeopardy.
DEVIN EBANKS, SF
No projection | Player card
• Thin, long-armed forward who can handle the ball. Must add strength.
• Aggressive, high IQ performer who willingly defends and rebounds well.
• Tweener between 3 and 4. Needs to improve outside shot.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Viewed more as a developmental prospect, Ebanks got into 20 games and was good enough that the Lakers have to be curious to see more; in particular, he was able to rebound and attack the rim better than envisioned given his slight frame. It was only 118 minutes, however, and his six D-League games offer a more nuanced view: While Ebanks can get to the basket with his ballhandling skill, he really needs to improve his outside shot because he can't count on the 3-on-2 trips he saw in garbage time with the Lakers. Nonetheless, the Lakers have to be encouraged that a second-round pick performed so well in his chances, and he could see considerably more of them this season.
JOE SMITH, PF (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
No projection | Player card
• Lanky power forward with 18-foot range. Athleticism on decline.
• Smart and has decent mobility but struggles against physical forwards.
• Can make jump hooks around basket but can't establish deep position.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smith is 36, only played 69 minutes last season, and scored a grand total of eight points. It's safe to say the end is near, but in the two previous seasons he wasn't that bad. He'll fill the end of somebody's bench this winter, and if injuries create playing time, he could enjoy a Juwan Howard-ish renaissance shooting 15-footers and giving hard fouls.
ANDREW GOUDELOCK, PG
No projection | Player card
• Big point guard with deep shooting range. Struggles to penetrate and create.
• Defensive liability against quick guards. Size, strength helpful closer to basket.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A classic triangle point guard who can get out of the way, space the floor and use his size at the defensive end, Goudelock would have been a much better fit if Phil Jackson was still coaching. His deep shooting range should help given the struggles of Steve Blake and Derek Fisher last season, but it's an open question whether Goudelock is good enough in the other phases to merit consistent playing time. He's not going to create off the dribble and he may struggle just as badly as his cohorts defending quick point guards.
ATER MAJOK , F
No projection | Player card
• Raw, long developing player with little game experience.
• Already 24 years old and hardly played in college.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Majok was a second-round dice roll based on his length and mobility, with the Lakers hoping to stash him in Europe or the D-League and see if he can develop into a real player. Right now he's miles away, and since he's already 24 the odds aren't real strong in his favor.
A Sudanese native whose odyssey has taken him through Egypt, Australia and Connecticut, Majok should benefit from spending an entire season in a structured environment just focusing on learning how to play. Based on where he was picked, if he can be an energy guy at the end of the bench the Lakers will be happy, and it's possible he has enough raw ability to fill that role at some point.
DARIUS MORRIS, G
No projection | Player card
• Tall point guard with good handle and vision. Still learning position.
• Poor outside shooter. Can finish at basket but not an explosive athlete.
• Slender frame, will need to add strength. Length a plus on defense.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Lakers love big point guards and Morris was the biggest one in the draft at 6-foot-5. He likes the ball in his hands so he doesn't fit the floor-spacing role of past Lakers point guards, but his ability to create shots for himself and others could prove quite helpful for L.A.'s moribund second unit. Additionally, he has the potential to develop an effective post game against small guards that, combined with his passing skills, could make him an Andre Miller-like threat on the block.
But he has a lot of development left to get to that point. Morris improved dramatically last season but still needs to pound the ball less, make better decisions, improve his jump shot and generally refine his management of the offense. I like him and thought he was great value at No. 41, but he may need some D-League seasoning before he's ready for The Show.
DERRICK CARACTER, F
No projection | Player card
• Wide-bodied big man who can bang. Solid rebounder. Can make midrange J.
• Short for a center. Doesn't block shots. Subpar mobility for a 4. Turnover prone.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Caracter got a limited cameo in his rookie season as a result of some early-season frontcourt injuries, and showed he belongs in the league by averaging 15.2 points per 40 minutes and flashing a solid mid-range J to complement his wide body. However, he committed far too many turnovers and disappointed on the glass with just an 11.3 rebound rate. Caracter also raised more red flags about his behavior when he was charged with battery during the playoffs after an incident at a New Orleans pancake house.
In three D-League games, Character showed similar traits to the ones displayed on the NBA hardwood, most notably by committing a whopping 13 turnovers in just 60 minutes. In the big picture, he's good enough to stay in the league if he stays on the good side of the law, but because he's small for a 5 and not terribly mobile for a 4, it's always going to be at the back end of the rotation.
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 29 November 2011 19:36 (twelve years ago) link