HOT STOVE, COOL SAND

All winter long, I’ve been somewhat obsessed with tracking the inflation in the free agent market. The magic number, after the most recent round of signings, is 47%. That is, teams are willing to pay 47% more for the same talent than they were one winter ago. This number seems to have stabilized after being as high as 70% — and as “low” as 30% — during various other parts of the free agent cycle.

I’ve had to make a few modifications to the Marginal Value Above Replacement Player formula, by the way, which I’ll describe in a full-length column sometime soon. But as a teaser, here are the three best and worst deals of the winter so far, according to MORP 2.0.

Best Deals

1. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals: $17.9 million savings.
2. Dave Roberts, Giants: $9.4 million savings.
3. Craig Counsell, Brewers: $7.3 million savings.

Worst Deals

1. Carlos Lee, Astros: $27.2 million overspend.
2. Gil Meche, Royals: $19.4 million overspend.
3. Adam Eaton, Phillies: $12.8 million overspend.

c: larue/buck
1b: shealy
2b: grudz
3b: gordon
ss: berroa
rf: teahen
cf: gathright/dejesus
lf: emil brown
dh: sweeney/huber

i honestly don't know TOO much about their bullpen minus macdougal, sisco and ambidextrous burgers (two of which are now gone), but does anyone know what the deal w/ greinke is?

Marcus Giles non-tendered, Mets and Pads said to be in pursuit.

If the Royales actually give Gathright (.262 / .332 / .328 ) PT over DeJesus (.295 / .364 / .446 ) or anyone else in the OF in any instance other than day-off situations or injury, then I hope Gil Meche turns into a kicked-in Jack O'Lantern that some neighborhood kids used as a chamber pot, because Joey Jo-Jo the Jumping JG should see time only as a 4th OF and pinch runner. Giving that dude more that 200 ABs ON PURPOSE would be criminal. They also need to either cut bait on Sweeney now (and, um, GIVE PLAYING TIME TO JUSTIN HUBER"IS"), or hope Sweeney starts the year off shit-hot so they can swap him for, um, Chiclets. Also, Angel Berroa needs some B12 stat.

along the lines of darren oliver, i can't believe people were actually talking about dustin hermanson getting a big payday.

dude, please!

Walker's poor defense scares the Pads, so I think if they can get Giles they'll do it. Walker didn't start for them last year either, so installing him in that role was always more of a last resort, even if he is a solid option offensively speaking. He can backup 3b, 2b and 1b and get a decent amount of playing time.

Anything that decreases the amount of potential playing time for Branyan or Blum would be ideal.

Yeah, that was something, wasn't it?

Winner: Marquis
Big Winners: Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan
Losers: the entire world

i mean, we roasted him for the soriano trade, soriano played well and then they ended up letting him walk for nothin. that sort of sums up bowden.

also consider this: a prime force behind unloading vidro was freeing up middle infield space for the triumphant return of cristian "the truth" guzman!

So when's he going to turn Ryan Church into waiver bait?

i'm still hoping the o's flip rodrigo lopez for someone useful and i think church fits the bill. i can't imagine church getting cut loose for nothing now that frank robinson is gone.

Steven Goldman: Because they were in the position of having to give a dead man a raise. They'll try to get him back more cheaply and see if they can salvage something... But compare this to the possibility that the Yankees might not move Pavano. Minaya has no personal investment in Zambrano so he can dump him.

Nah, it was probably "Cowboys From Hell".

Actually, I completely think so. The dude is a great hitter AND he plays center field. He gets on base, hits for power, hits for good average. He's definitely one of the 10 best players in the league, and he's pretty young.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2698288

I'd say Wells' deal looks pretty good amongs the company on that list. There are a few major duds on that list, particularly for the money involved (Hampton, probably Helton and Giambi). Wells vs Soriano? Fairly close offensively, but only one of them can play defense. Jeter has been vastly overpaid for most of his contract.

Wells' deal looks bad next to those of Beltran and Pujols (who never became a free agent), but I think that's about it.

Wild.

Which is a million degrees of fucking retarded.

Whoa, that's an understatement:

Pre-AS: .330 / .383 / .585
Post-AS: .261 / .297 / .411

Did he get hurt? (I'm guessing him playing all of 3 games in July means "yes," tho I'm willing to bet Shea Hillenbrand has something to do w/ it.)

That said, he'll only be 26 @ the start of the season, and it might behoove the Jays to see if his first half was the sign of better things to come. Unless the trade's a whopper (for a solid #3 starter type, or better), I'd hold off. And given that most folks probably see AR the same way we do, I think trading him now would be selling him & the Jays short. (Ha - maybe JR can trade AR to the Royals for Meche!)

And even doomsday-scenario-Cruz Jr. at 25 yrs old and $400,000 would've been a steal.

The Rangers now are shopping Otsuka to the Mets and D-Backs. I have a feeling this comes back to bite them hard.

His K rate has declined each year, and his hit rate has increased (mitigated last year by cutting his walks down by 66%). These are minor fluctuations, but given how Otsuka's mojo works, and the wack-ass market, and their (misplaced) faith in Goggles McGee, and what happened to Francisco Cordero last year, it might behoove the Rangers to at least test the waters & see what schwag Otsuka can get them. But given how many pitchers up & die in Arlington, and the sad-ass state of their rotation, you'd think holding onto one pitcher that stood firm (& establishing the semi-solid foundation of a functional bullpen) would be the prudent move.

How weird of an announcement is this? "We know our starter won't go nine and we know we won't blow them out so you can expect to see Gagne opening day."