discus the 2012 HOF ballot

holdovers:

Barry Larkin
Jack Morris
Lee Smith
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Don Mattingly
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Juan González

first-timers:

Jeromy Burnitz
Vinny Castilla
Brian Jordan
Javy López
Bill Mueller
Terry Mulholland
Phil Nevin
Brad Radke
Tim Salmon
Rubén Sierra
Bernie Williams
Tony Womack
Eric Young

brad radke career WAR: 41.4
jack morris career WAR: 39.3

BERNIE *plays lick on guitar*

THIS shit again?

BNightengale Bob Nightengale
“@LageCEO: @BNightengale You vote for Morris, what about Dennis Martinez? Basically the same careers.” Morris was greatest pitcher of 80s

Javy López - Not a hall of famer, but the guy had a pretty nice career with the bat for a catcher.

Radke seemed so much worse when I had him on rotisserie teams in the late '90s.

Phil Nevin - This guy eventually had some big years in the 'roid ERA, but he was hyped pretty huge coming out of college.

Vinny Castilla - Probably one of the best Mexican players ever in MLB and he could really freaking hit in Colorado. He was a pretty solid player over all. Castilla was maybe a 90s take on Ron Cey although not as funky looking as the Penguin more the production to his ERA. Definitely should get a picture in the hall of very good.

Bernie Williams will get some love being a Yank for a career and he was a good player - not quite MVP caliber and actually had a pretty "natural" playing arc to his career in the roid ERA. I liked the guy and you could definitely would be OK with him be your CF for his decade peak.

I posted it in a thread years back, but Tim Salmon is one of the better players with a long career to NEVER make an Allstar team. He was pretty solid. He lost a couple years to injuries, The fact he was a career Angel was pretty cool and got to get that ring probably means he can sell used cars and furniture for a long time in the Anaheim area.

Bill Meuller winning that batting title in Boston has to be the definition of outlier season.

None of those new guys are anywhere close to HOF in my book.

i feel dirty saying it - but Bernie is the closest to HOF of the bunch.

Whether you're a holdover or somebody new, the deluge starts next year--if you don't get in this time, it's going to be very tough (maybe impossible) in the near-future.

2013: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Schilling, Sosa, Biggio
2014: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Kent, Mussina
2015: Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz (plus Nomar and Delgado, who probably have very little chance at this point)

One, two, or three of those guys won't get in right away because of PEDs. That still leaves a very overcrowded field.

ya, 2013 will be a shitshow.

2013 is gonna be a goldmine for the "dumbass media" thread.

zero of the new crew deserve it. from the holdovers, i'd throw votes to:

Barry Larkin
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro

considering the fact that maybe one of those guys will get in this year, 2013 should be entertaining esp w/the fact one can only vote for 10 players. biggio and maybe schilling in '13? maddux and glavine and thomas in '14? unit, pedro, smoltz in '15? i anticipate the ranks of the pitchers swelling a lot fast than the position player ranks in the hall over the coming decade.

Palmeiro?!

The biggest thing in 2013 for me is whether Bonds and Clemens split the PED question into two tiers. I think they'll both nudge in on the first ballot, with enough writers who normally don't vote for PED-associated players deciding that both were already HOF before they used (along with all the writers who disregard PEDs altogether). Or maybe their induction would be the first step in a general breakdown of the PED barrier. If Bonds and Clemens were to fall short, I'm not sure where that issue would go next.

we better have the fucking board back by the election

i hope it's back before we have to have the fantasy draft! :s

palmeiro is just over the borderline for me. thought about bernie, but he's a miss. maybe if he played a decent CF?

i don't think bonds or clemens will come remotely close to election on the first ballot. some writers might "punish" them the first time around, even if they plan to end up voting for them. if they get in via the writers, i think it may take a few years.

That's something I don't understand. I'm okay with any one of these three: a) voting for a guy because you don't believe PEDs are relevant; b) not voting for him because you think they are; c) not voting for him because, for whatever reason, you're still not completely sure, and you know there's still time to vote for him if you resolve that uncertainty to your satisfaction. But I don't understand the symbolic no vote for someone you fully intend to vote for next time around. That's what cost Alomar first-ballot induction. I've read one writer who openly admitted as much, and I assume there were a few others who voted the same way.

i agree about Alomar - it's strange thing to do that.

Palmeiro def has HoF numbers - but if there's a candidate to get spanked over the whole doping issue it's him. he got caught red handed and was caught lying about it. i think he might have a harder time with the issue than Bonds or Clemens.

Palmeiro and McGwire are both definite by numbers HOF players that are out because of peds.

Barry Larkin- doesn't have the counting stats, missed a ton of games over his career, but he was a one team guy that won an MVP and is pretty hard to argue as the NL's best shortstop between mid80s to mid 90s.
Jack Morris- won some big games, hung around for a long time, but his ERA is way too big to overcome. I'd say he will eventually get in via the vets committee.
Lee Smith- the guy has the save numbers, for what that is worth. He was really good and I saw him pitch a ton but I never really thought he was dominating like some of the other closers that have gotten the nod.
Jeff Bagwell- easily one of the best right handed hitters the NL has seen at his peak, but I think he will get a bit of guilt by association on roids perhaps and his shoulder gave out so his total counting stats are not there.
Tim Raines- I think he was just under Rickey Henderson at his peak for being a freak of a leadoff hitter. The guy had a cannon for an arm. One of the best players of that period. I think the coke allegations and the fact that he wasn't the same player after his early 30s probably drags him down. The guy was totally bad ass though...
Edgar Martinez- the guy could hit. He played in Seattle so really I only know him from baseball cards for the most part.
Alan Trammell- He was a really good player, probably not really that much less than Larkin. I think how it adds up is a bit outside the hall though. Trammell and Whitaker were a great duo.
Larry Walker- The guy was a freak of a hitter and could really field his position. I think the injuries and grand totals are going to hold him back at least for a while. His peaks might also get tempered by the fact they were in Denver pre-humidor.

Fred McGriff- Crime Dog was a really good player who is probably now the line for not getting in the hall. I think long term you might see him get the nod but not for awhile.
Don Mattingly- great peak, but the back injuries shortened his career.
Dale Murphy- cant argue with 2 MVPs, but he had alot of middling years at the start and end of his career. 80s were kind of cruel in that way for most of its stars outside of Gwynn, Ripken and Boggs.

Juan González- the guy was a crazy good hitter at his peak, but he's got roid ties and wasn't really 'loved' especially how it crashed and burned. At one point he looked like he could be an alltime great, as his counting numbers at an early age were crazy high- looked like he was on easily his way to 3000 hits and 500+ HRs or more.

chili pepperds

Palmeiro is the poster boy for counting stats. He was good for a long time, but was never great. He padded his numbers in a hitters era, which makes him look a lot better than he was.

Larkin, Bagwell, Raines, Edgar, and McGwire are no-brainers for me. I think Walker just clears my bar. I'm still not sold on McGriff or Trammell, but might be some day.

Bernie Williams is at best a borderline candidate. I guess it goes without saying that he'd be nobody's idea of a HOFer if he didn't play for the Yankees. As far as great 90's-00's CF's go, Jim Edmonds has him beat in nearly every hitting category and was also a great defender. Too bad Edmonds will likely be a one and done case in a few years (FWIW I'd vote for him).

Another CF who'll get lost in the shuffle is Kenny Lofton, who comes up next year. He's like Raines on a smaller scale--same strengths in a much higher offensive context, and a similar perception problem (at least I think it's a problem) of not having many seasons of 150+ games. Lofton actually has a slighly higher career WAR.

Posnanski series (one reason those new names look underwhelming is that none of em have a 50+ WAR, which hasn't happened since 2000):

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/12/20/hof-story-1-first-timers/

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/12/21/hof-story-2-the-holdovers/?sct=mlb_wr_a2

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/12/27/hof-story-3-the-yea-votes/

The only one of Posnanski's picks I have a hard time getting my head around is Dale Murphy. I'd much rather see Fred McGriff (who may drop off this year or next) go in. Admittedly, I've got some hometown bias there.

I wouldn't pick either.

If I had to choose between both or neither, I'd go with neither.

I loved Pos' article on the first timers -- Brian Jordan was borderline great? Who knew? I can understand voting for one (and only one) borderline guy as a sort of "pet" pick, I feel the same way about Larry Walker. It's worthwhile to keep some of these guys on the ballot to keep the discussion going in future years. I think it reflects worse on the balloting process when a Lou Whitaker or Kevin Brown drops off the ballot in their first year than if guys like Mattingly and Murphy stay on the ballot for 10+ years.

kevin brown going that early was pretty shocking. not that i expected him to make it, but i figured he'd hang around. but most of the writers are keen on punishing players for certain "infractions" or "flaws", and brown had several: seemed like a prick, punched a wall and busted his hand, went out on a low note, rumored PED connections. makes me think sosa won't even break 15% when he shows up. i guess the question isn't who will not get in but who will, since most of the overwhelmingly overqualified candidates who are coming up (beyond a few pitches, big hurt, griffey jr, biggio?) seem like they'll have serious trouble getting in. not to mention the heavy vote splitting w/the 10 player limit.

i also figure brown got punished for being nomadic rather than sticking around w/one or two teams. i think dudes who are not easily identified with an organization are often regarded as lesser to those musial/jeter/clemente/kaline types.

I have a feeling Sosa will get buried--that he will bear the brunt, more than anyone, fairly or unfairly, of being an almost wholly PED-created player. (Agree with No Time that I'd much rather err on the side of caution in keeping guys on the ballot.)

its insane that Tim Raines isn't in already, so yeah he's a definite yes for me

also was Bags ever actually proven guilty of anything? I realize that his numbers raise suspicion but isn't this some kind of "guilty until proven innocent" bullshit?

Raines, Bagwell, Larkin and Edgar are all guys that should be in...
McGwire, McGriff, Walker and Bernie are all on the bubble for me - and guys like Trammell, Murphy, Gonzalez I'd be willing to hear arguments for.

"guilty until proven innocent" bullshit?

yes, where ya been?

Just to amend something I said above: you can't personally "err on the side of caution" in terms of keeping someone on the ballot--you either vote for him or you don't, and the aggregate vote decides whether he stays on or not. I think something like a five-year provision would be useful in avoiding situations like Kevin Brown and Lou Whitaker, where a clearly qualified player gets dropped from the ballot immediately. Set up some modest but meaningful benchmarks--2,000 hits, 300 HR, 200 wins, however many saves in that range (probably 300 by now)--and if a player meets at least one of those (both Whitaker and Brown would have cleared), he must remain on the ballot five years before the 5% threshold kicks in. I don't know whether an extra five years' perspective would make much difference, but it might at least help players who run into a particularly strong field in their first year or two.

... or you could just have a 2-3 year period before anyone can get dropped.

Thing is, I think you'd want certain players to drop off immediately. If you used the numbers I suggested above, these players would be exempt for five years: Bernie Williams, Vinnie Castilla (Colorado fluke), Ruben Sierra, Jeromy Burnitz. Everyone else--Javy Lopez, Tim Salmon (299 HR...), Tony Womack, Phil Nevin, Brian Jordan, Eric Young, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Brad Radke--likely disappears. This year's weak field isn't the best example, and I know Lopez and Salmon were better than at least a couple of guys who'd get the provision. But Lopez and Salmon aren't ever going to make it anyway, so it wouldn't be a tragedy. Buy I think it would buy some time for the occasional Whitaker or Brown.

Buy = But

On the other hand, Lopez and/or Salmon may very well exceed the 5% threshold, and that's fine--just like always, you don't have to meet these benchmarks to stay on the ballot if the writers take care of that for you.

my guess is salmon gets just enough support to stay on and lopez falls a couple percentage pts below the line.

i have no idea how a single writer could justify a vote for javy lopez.

McGwire, McGriff, Walker and Bernie are all on the bubble for me - and guys like Trammell, Murphy, Gonzalez I'd be willing to hear arguments for.

as poz wrote, the argument for trammell is that he's the exact same player as larkin.

anyway: Larkin, Bagwell, Raines, Martinez, Trammell, McGwire, Palmeiro, and of course, Orioles legend Javy López.

Lopez had one spectacular season--think he still hold the single-season slugging record for catchers--and a few good ones, but the only semi-credible argument I can see for him is a rather vague, old-fashioned one: that he was the catcher for a dynasty, and handled one of the greatest starting staffs ever. But no, I don't think anyone should vote for him.

martinez is the only one of these that would make me sad if he didn't get in

as poz wrote, the argument for trammell is that he's the exact same player as larkin.

which i do not really agree with.

ok they are very similar.

Yeah, they're pretty close. Trammell is #1 on Larkin's similarity-score list, Larkin is Trammell's #2. Larkin runs about 10% better in BA/SA/OBP, probably just the difference between having your peak years in the '90s rather than the '80s. Something interesting is that Trammell drew a higher percentage of the MVP vote the year he finished second than Larkin did the year he won.

i think you might be able to get away with putting Larkin's higher SLG down to the '90s vs '80s thing - but Larkin's OBP being 20 points better isn't something that can be brushed aside as easily imho. i mean, it's not a huge thing, but it's not a negligible difference either.

what jumps out at me is how dominant Barry was as a base runner. 379 career SB and only caught a total of 77 times. the season where he stole over 50 bases - he was only thrown out 5 times!