From the Wonderful Folks Who Brought You Iraq: Iran

Can you elaborate?

They're fuckin' kidding, right? A couple dozen tin can-sized pieces of debris might be enough to send the entire Middle East down the flaming road of apocalypse now? The biggest problem with the entire Operation "Let's-Prove-Iran-Is-Sending-Weapons-To-Iraq" PR push is that Americans don't give a fuck about Iraq anymore. The vast majority of this nation doesn't give a shit if Sunnis kill Shiites and vice-versa, with a Kurd or two thrown in to make it seem like that region's even part of Iraq. And Americans ain't gonna care as long as American troops are over there...

Also: Timing in a poker game is critical: if you do not know when to raise, you always lose.

i.e. Iraq

It's January 2007 in Iraq

It's February 2007 in Iraq...

Ned why no Iraq sandbox thread?

Pace backs away from Bush admin's claims
leaving Tony Snow to do a little softshoe

In other news:

Iran's Ahmadinejad Says He Often Cries

Fucking weepy-eyed war mongers.

Bush is less reticent about public displays of grief for victims of Sept. 11. During the recent events marking the fifth anniversary of the attacks, he teared up several times and at one point had to concentrate just to finish a speech. "Your heart breaks for somebody who suffered," he later told Charles Gibson of ABC News. "Tears can get contagious as far as I'm concerned."

(minus the whole Members Only jacket thing)

anyway, i go back and forth on being sure we're going to stir up some military shit there and thinking the whole thing will fizzle. right now i kind of think both are likely; there'll be some kind of skirmishes, maybe a little bombing run, and the reaction will be so uniformly negative -- from the american public, the iranian public, and the world at large -- that the two idiot presidents will both have to back down a little. sort of like what seems to have happened in the north korean talks.

Still, they shut that down, thing's gunna get even more interesting.

Last weekend, Iran's nuclear negotiator also sounded more conciliatory when he offered to re-open the stalled Iranian-European negotiations. Iran's president has also gone out of his way to say that his country poses "no threat to Israel", despite earlier promises to "wipe Israel off the map".

But it is also true that at least one of Iran's tactics is also working. For some time now, the Iranians have been trying to play America off against Europe, so as to relieve the pressure on themselves. After all, if there aren't joint American-European sanctions, then the Iranians will find it that much easier to ignore them. Thus do the "war in Iran" headlines - guaranteed to stir up fear and loathing of the American government - feed right into Iranian interests.

Which matters: for we are at an unusual juncture in history. If Britain, France and Germany go along with America's "coercive diplomacy", that diplomacy might stand a slim chance of success. If they do not, then yes, the distant, but not completely unthinkable military option might begin to loom larger in the minds of politicians in both Washington and Tel Aviv.

Having started an unpopular war already, having no prospect of being re-elected to anything, President Bush might decide that, in the absence of allies, there is no other way. For the first time in a long time, it really is up to Europeans to influence what comes next.

Mr. Bush: But my focus is on making sure that this weapon is dealt with, the program is dealt with in a constructive, peaceful way. And we’ll continue to work toward achieving our common objective with other nations in the world in a peaceful way. …

Question — using faulty intelligence to provoke Iran?

Mr. Bush: No, I heard your question, and I told you, I was confident that the Quds force, a part of the Iranian government, was providing weaponry into Iraq. And to say it is provoking Iran is just a wrong way to characterize the Commander-in-Chief’s decision to do what is necessary to protect our soldiers in harm’s way. And I will continue to do so.

ORLY