I don't think the geographic factors matter that much for the vp pick, w/ a few exceptions. like rubio might get you a few points in florida but I don't buy that there's a regional effect beyond that. the last two GOP vp candidates were from...wyoming and alaska. when's the last time a vp pick has had a real and valuable regional effect?
imo he'll pick someone loud and crazy.
― iatee, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:10 (twelve years ago) link
well, i think rubio's a pretty good bet. he's a tea-party darling, and yet isn't overtly crazy or inarticulate.
easy counterpunch, btw: swap jobs for biden and HRC.
― Daniel, Esq., Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:12 (twelve years ago) link
when's the last time a vp pick has had a real and valuable regional effect?
Gore? Unless Clinton would have done just as well in the South without him...in which case, LBJ?
― clemenza, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:14 (twelve years ago) link
clinton would have done just as well in the south without him
― iatee, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:15 (twelve years ago) link
and yeah I think both rubio and the biden/hrc swap are reasonably likely
it's just a pr stunt but it'd be weirdly effective
Kennedy took Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas; I guess Texas alone makes LBJ the answer.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1960
(I know 1960 was pre-Civil Rights Act/"Southern Strategy," but surely Kennedy doesn't win all of those states without LBJ.)
― clemenza, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:24 (twelve years ago) link
Speaking of LBJ, this 1972 photo of him is amazing:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lyndon_B._Johnson_1972.jpg
― Ned Raggett, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:39 (twelve years ago) link
Bah, if that didn't work for whatever reason:
jfk/lbj is a good example but not only was this pre-southern strategy but it was also an era that didn't have the ultra-partisan voting demographic we have right now. there aren't *that many* peoples' votes in play and who's really like "oh, if that guy becomes president and then gets shot, the person who will then be president is from a state that is 5 hours away from me. I think I'm voting for him."
edwards did *nothing* for kerry iirc
― iatee, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:51 (twelve years ago) link
Also: a Dem prez nominee could reasonably assume he could carry the Solid South, despite Eisenhower's inroads.
― Lord Sotosyn, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:57 (twelve years ago) link
Joseph "Hot Lips" Biden as secretary of state? Doubtful.
― Lord Sotosyn, Saturday, 10 December 2011 21:59 (twelve years ago) link
yeah he would be pretty horrible, wouldn't he? maybe some other position then. but regardless a clinton as vp seems like a reasonable stunt esp if he's consistently trailing in the polls by a few points. I doubt it will happen if and/or when he's ahead.
― iatee, Saturday, 10 December 2011 22:03 (twelve years ago) link
That picture was from when LBJ was playing fiddle for Wet Willie, right near the end.
Stevenson carried the South fairly solidly in '52/'56 (except Texas and Florida...and the rest of the country), so I don't know how Kennedy would have fared with, say, another Northerner on the ticket. Had the identity of the parties re Civil Rights already started to shift by that point?
― clemenza, Saturday, 10 December 2011 22:04 (twelve years ago) link
I'm confident and at ease that Newt will survive tonight stronger than ever. Serenity now. Serenity now.
http://unionresourcecenter.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/train+derailment1.jpg
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 01:39 (twelve years ago) link
oh yeah! there's a debate tonight. hm.
― Daniel, Esq., Sunday, 11 December 2011 01:44 (twelve years ago) link
mitt not getting it done, so far
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:25 (twelve years ago) link
ohhhhhhhh . . . may have to watch.
― Daniel, Esq., Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:29 (twelve years ago) link
i read tweets saying gingrich is nicely deflecting the attacks (seems to be enjoying them).
(sigh) is there a live feed of this?
― Daniel, Esq., Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:33 (twelve years ago) link
challenging someone to a $10K bet onstage is nagl for a nominee
― Z S, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:37 (twelve years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC1i9qLUgPY
― Z S, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:41 (twelve years ago) link
Shoulda pulled the ten grand out of his pocket to drive home the point. "See? I've got it right here! Ten grand! Let's do it!"
― Tarfumes the Escape Goat, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:41 (twelve years ago) link
Bizarre: Newt-Romney outflanked on all sides. Except for his roundly booed line about losing to Teddy Kennedy--which is true!--Newt's doing okay.
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:44 (twelve years ago) link
Don't you get ABC, Daniel? It's as national as it gets (unless I'm just lucky that Buffalo's carrying it).
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:45 (twelve years ago) link
― clemenza, Saturday, December 10, 2011 8:44 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink
I didn't think it was booing I think it was more like "ohhhhhhhhhh no you didn't!"
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:47 (twelve years ago) link
Agree with Sullivan on how annoying Diane Sawyer is. Stephanopoulos, meanwhile, is as much of an agitator as we was during the 2008 Democratic debate in Philadelphia...except tonight I'm enjoying it.
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:48 (twelve years ago) link
lol Perry is so pathetic
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 11 December 2011 02:49 (twelve years ago) link
hey looks like i turned this on at the right time
― Mordy, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:03 (twelve years ago) link
oh, now they're fighting about who is bigger friends w/ bibi. these guys are more hardcore on israel than i am
― Mordy, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:08 (twelve years ago) link
crowd doesn't know what to think about an issue that's not about taxes or Obama
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:10 (twelve years ago) link
i wonder if this is frustrating for the republicans -- they can climb over each other arguing about who loves israel the most and i'm still not going to vote for them
― Mordy, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:11 (twelve years ago) link
romney/rubio will only carry 40 states
States Obama is almost certain to win (with his 2008 margin therein):Hawaii (45)Vermont (37)Rhode Island (28)New York (27)Illinois (25)Massachusetts (25)California (24)Connecticut (22)Washington (17)Maine (17)New Jersey (16) - Christie could put it in play, but is unlikely to win it; he didn't even beat his opponents (collectively)Oregon (16)Michigan (16) - Romney's birth here might substantially reduce the margin, aided by high unemployment, but it will be mitigated by his expressed desire to let the auto industry dieWisconsin (14)Minnesota (10)^none of these States have voted for a Republican for President since Clinton came on the scene, and all except Oregon gave Obama a 50% or better approval rating in September. Romney may be a more attractive Republican to them than any since Poppy Bush/Reagan (Rubio not necessarily), but that isn't enough to win them.
States Obama will probably win: Iowa (10) - it really belongs in the above category, having only gone for Bush over Kerry by 10K votes in a year in which Nader+other got 13K, and given Obama a 49% approval rating and reasonably solid head-to-head polling performances; still, its small size does make it a slight wild cardNew Mexico (15) - like IA, it really belongs in the above category with such a wide margin and strong demographic moves in favor of the Democrats (neighbor McCain lost badly), but its small size and only a 46% approval rating make it just slightly unpredictable, and Bush beat Kerry here by 6K votes (in a year in which Nader+other got 8K), I think after at least one net had prematurely called the election; still, probably pretty safe for Obama, who is polling very well head-to-head (and benefits from low unemployment)Pennsylvania (10) - Democrats never win by a lot here (it's Alabama in the middle, as they say), but they do always win, and while Obama has been tied or behind in many polls of the state, none of the Republicans have risen above the lower 40s and Obama outperformed his polls (and most Democrats) last time on strong black turnout; Christie could potentially really put the State in play (mitigated by Biden's roots), but I'm not sure he'd do that much that Romney cannotColorado (9) - a little closer than more hispanic New Mexico, with a little more Mormon influence, but Obama has continued to poll reasonably well here head-to-headNevada (14) - another small state, where Obama's margin may be dangerously reduced due to a long border with Utah/Mormon influence and some hispanic/general disillusionment (plus very high unemployment), and indeed Romney has often been tied in polling here, but also another state where Obama is aided by continuing demographic advantages that may be insurmountable and he substantially outperformed those polls in 2008, when again neighbor McCain got badly beat
Obama 2008 States that are Tossups:New Hampshire (10) - Romney's media exposure from Massachusetts and 2008 is already helping here (where Bush won by 7K votes in 2000, while Nader got 22K, and where Obama enjoys unusually low approval ratings for a state he carried last time) - he now solidly leads in the polls. Whether the anti-Obama sentiment (racism?) that was prevalent in the 2008 primary will again evaporate by election day remains to be seen - the State's small numbers and flintiness make it hard to forecast.Ohio (5) - the (perenially) truest tossup and perhaps keyest state in the race; Obama is tied in the polls, facing an unhappy but unpredictable electorate, but probably has a slight incumbency edge neverthelessVirginia (6) - Romney, who probably eats away at some of Obama's tech community support, has at least a slight lead in polling, some of which Obama outperformed late, and a McDonnell pick might help put the State awayFlorida (3) - Romney is well ahead in polling here, where unemployment is high, and the State looks gone for Obama, especially if Rubio is on the ticket, though the economic situation and demographics make it difficult to predictNorth Carolina (-) - with a very slim 2008 margin, one might have to say it's gone, except continuing hispanic (and black? white educated male?) demographic trends may mitigate against that, reflected in polling in which Obama remains within the margin with Mitt as well as more popular than he is in some safer states
States Obama will probably lose but could theoretically win (especially if there's a third-party candidate):Indiana (-) - Obama's neighborly advantage was good for just a 0.03% victory margin, and he lives in Washington now; still, some decent demographic trends in his favorMissouri (-) - margin was close enough last time (just -0.13%) that with depressed conservative turnout, theoretically Obama could pull it off like (fellow) neighbor Clinton did twice; unlikely, thoughMontana (-2) - trend is strongly away from Obama, who is unlikely to pull off Clinton's '92 featGeorgia (-5) - like NC, demographic trends in favor and relatively high Obama popularity (48%, higher than FL/NC/VA, not to mention AZ/CO/NV/NM) combined with a Northeastern Republican (this State did pick Clinton over Poppy Bush); not enough, thoughArizona (-8) - without McCain in the race, perhaps the second-most hispanic state in the Southwest will look a bit more like CO or NV? with an older population, that probably isn't enough, even if it went for Clinton over Dole
If Romney wins all of the tossups and GOP leaners, he wins the election (by 1 electoral vote). but I don't regard that as likely - I think Obama is the favorite to carry at least one of Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virginia (or one of the other Southern states).
― C.K. Dexter Holland, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:11 (twelve years ago) link
Did you know that Newt Gingrich is an historian (and that Michelle Bachmann is a tax lawyer)?
― C.K. Dexter Holland, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:13 (twelve years ago) link
I'm sure you lead from the rear, Rick.
I was really hoping that Perry would talk about his lifetime friendship with Bibi Netanyahu.
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:16 (twelve years ago) link
Haha
― C.K. Dexter Holland, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:17 (twelve years ago) link
santorum: "the so-called... 'west bank.'"
he must've been about to say 'occupied territories' and thought better of it bc idk anyone who doesn't call the 'west bank' the west bank.
― Mordy, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:17 (twelve years ago) link
Didn't you think that was booing directed at Gingrich over the Teddy Kennedy remark, Matt? I was sure that's what it was.
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:19 (twelve years ago) link
nah man I really think it was more of a "dayyyuummm" reaction than booing, though I'm sure there were some boos in there. Maybe I'm just biased though, because it was my reaction.
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:32 (twelve years ago) link
I'm not watching but I keep reading tweets saying newt's doing well, better than romney, and perry isn't doing enough to really help himself.
― Daniel, Esq., Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:35 (twelve years ago) link
so: I approve!
― Daniel, Esq., Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:36 (twelve years ago) link
So the Governor of Iowa wins his shouted ad lib...It's all been kind of anti-climactic. Gingrich and Romney have been on defense the whole way, and they've more or less done okay. Santorum has probably done the most to help himself, but that probably just means he'll finish fourth in Iowa.
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:39 (twelve years ago) link
"wins with"...
So you're saying we'll soon have a santorum "surge"?
― Daniel, Esq., Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:42 (twelve years ago) link
Ewww
― C.K. Dexter Holland, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:48 (twelve years ago) link
No Santorum surge--possibly (my new cliche of the moment) a Santorum boomlet.
Weirdest moment of the night for me was when Perry was in the middle of an immigration answer, you heard a piece paper rustle loudly, and he seemed to zone out for two or three seconds.
The worst moment was probably Romney's silly $10,000 bet.
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:54 (twelve years ago) link
What was the bet?
― Daniel, Esq., Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:55 (twelve years ago) link
Gingrich's "If we do survive" was...troubling.
Romney and Perry were arguing about the line that got deleted from subsequent editions of Romney's book.
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:56 (twelve years ago) link
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/mitt-romney-offers-to-bet-rick-perry-10000-on-debate-stage.php?ref=fpa
― clemenza, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:57 (twelve years ago) link
perry said romney wrote in his book that the massachusetts plan could be a "model" for the country and romney said perry was misquoting him
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 11 December 2011 03:57 (twelve years ago) link