All-Purpose NuILX thread for American Politics

Reagan and FDR's second terms are the only exceptions that come to mind.

There really is no good basis to generalize about the Presidency based on history. There just isn't much data out there.

historically all the big shit happens in the first term, with some very rare exceptions

xp

well, alfred might be right. i'd have to research it some, but you can see why -- in theory -- a second-term president might feel more empowered to push for his or her agenda

It never happens, and it's usually the stick with which political parties beat voters ("Don't worry -- he'll take care of X in the second term").

i'll concede the point. but it makes no sense to me; why not swing for the fences in the second term?

it's more that their parties aren't going to support sweeping agendas in the second term since the President isn't going around to help them get re-elected

Because the president is a lame duck for the next four years?

going TO BE around

There really is no good basis to generalize about the Presidency based on history. There just isn't much data out there.

rmde

it's more that their parties aren't going to support sweeping agendas in the second term since the President isn't going around to help them get re-elected

It's fairly well known that Obama hasn't done anything to help Congressional Democrats get re-elected. They're pretty pissed about it.

Because the president is a lame duck for the next four years?

okay, that makes sense, i guess. gutless, but rational, behavior.

There really is no good basis to generalize about the Presidency based on history. There just isn't much data out there.

You're right -- we'll overlook 220+ years of American history

we need at least 300 years for an adequate sample-size!

we'll overlook 220+ years of American history

There are 220+ years of second Presidential terms (in the modern political environment)?

You seem to have found two rather notable exceptions to the "rule" (out of how many in the same period) without going back very far.

Of twentieth century presidents who've won a second full term on their own we've got:

McKinley
Wilson
FDR
Eisenhower
Nixon
Reagan
Clinton
Bush II

Of the successful ones, FDR's second term was certainly the worst: after the court-packing loss, the failed midterm party purge, and the economy tanking again, he didn't get on with the second New Deal until war was breathing down his neck. Then he set the New Deal aside altogether.

As for Reagan, I give him credit for negotiations with Gorby. The rest of his second term was Bitburg and Iran-Contra.

and I really shouldn't count McKinley because he lived for only three months of that term.

why bother running for a second term?

• protect the gains you've made in the first term
• P -- A -- R -- T -- Y

Presidents think that history judges second-term presidents more successfully, although Bush II will certainly give them pause.

You forgot:

• P--O--W--E--R

SECOND TERM INITIATIVES (RECENT HISTORY)

• bush II: social security reform; energy policy act of 2005
• clinton: state children's health insurance program; adoption and safe families act; foster care independence act
• reagan: war-on-drugs; negotiations with gorbachev; immigration reform and control act of 1985 (not sure if reagan promoted this, or merely signed it)
• nixon: not sure

social security reform

this didn't pass btw

Nixon's: destroy everyone. (Before he stumbled over the great revelation that then you destroy yourself.)

Nixon: getting himself in deeper shit

i know. the point isn't what passed, but what was promoted.

reagan: war-on-drug

a marvelous achievement this is

I was thinking Nixon created the EPA in his second term, but it was his first.

reagan: war-on-drug

__________________

a marvelous achievement this is

― Lord Sotosyn, Tuesday, December 27, 2011

alfred speaks like a man holding a whole sheet of lsd drops on wax-paper.

clinton: state children's health insurance program; adoption and safe families act; foster care independence act

this is pretty pathetic next to the far-reaching implications of previous term's successes: telecomm act, welfare reform, changing FDA rules, NAFTA, reversing the Glass-Steagall act, Commodity Futures Modernization Act Family Medical Leave Act, DOMA...

this is reminding me how much I kind of hate Clinton

xp

Bush II wasn't a "20th century president" btw

this is pretty pathetic next to the far-reaching implications of previous term's successes: telecomm act, welfare reform, changing FDA rules, NAFTA, reversing the Glass-Steagall act, Commodity Futures Modernization Act Family Medical Leave Act, DOMA..

...raising the top rate by nearly 9 points, EITC expansion, community block grants...

there you go.

Noam Scheiber @noamscheiber -- What I appreciate about Ben Nelson: He spent lots of time making Dem policies crappier to aid re-election to a seat he's giving up. Thanks!

sounds about right

That's certainly a fair characterization of what actually happened. But I might suggest that his intent was to make Dem policies sufficiently politically palatable for his and perhaps others' reelection, and that he/Obama ultimately failed in that regard. Not knowing him personally, I can't say.

Public support of HCR has turned up now that it's beginning to kick in, but it's too little too late for many in Congress, which is why they feel abandoned by the WH.

The WH should have fought back against the Tea Party attacks on health care better, but the DNC and others should have also. Nelson and others who changed it in an alleged effort to make it more politically palatable and then failed to stand up for it themselves did not help in the gaining public support realm

Public support of HCR has turned up now that it's beginning to kick in

lol how is this remotely true, this is counter to all the polling data I've seen reported as recently as last week

53% support repeal of HCR

Nelson and others who changed it in an alleged effort to make it more politically palatable and then failed to stand up for it themselves did not help in the gaining public support realm

yes but they helped themselves in the "cravenly begging for support" realm.

a second-term obama can aim high, since he doesn't have to worry about re-election. i'm not saying he will, but it's certainly possible

Jesus God Almighty, you people are literally posting my old jokes.

Nixon term 2: "Peace with honor" in Vietnam; detente w/ USSR; save my phony-baloney job

(xpost) If you track the numbers on that chart going back a year, when they often showed repeal up in the high-50 and into the 60% range, there does seem to be some improvement. I also assume there's some overstatement in general, being a Rasmussen poll.

Jesus God Almighty, you people are literally posting my old jokes.

this is a dirty lie.

got this one from dennis perrin.

The WH should have fought back against the Tea Party attacks on health care better, but the DNC and others should have also.

One and the same, really, but you're right on both scores.

The problem with selling HCR to the public is that the one provision that everyone knows about and thinks they understand is the requirement to be covered, which most people perceive as negative. The only positive provision that most people know about and understand is the elimination of exclsusions for pre-existing conditions.

As far as I can tell, the other 98% of the bill is too technical for most people to understand or too marginal for them to care about - so that even when they hear about those parts they forget about them an hour later.

The problem with selling HCR to the public is quite possibly that the administration hasn't spent much time doing it, or doing it well. That's understandable from the perspective that they had other agenda items to work on, but less so, perhaps, from a political perspective.

does dennis perrin know he's a meme on ilx?

I always forget that obama passed "universal health care" lol

I just looked at his site for--yes--the very first time, and what do you know, I've read his book on Michael O'Donoghue.

I always forget that if Obama had just been a cagier negotiator--if he'd started out by demanding an outright ban on guns, dismantling of the Pentagon, and free gay marriage for everyone--he could have then worked his way back to a much better deal.

c'mon clemenza - gabbnab is back. u can just be the wild gossipy political horserace fiend you've always wanted to be and leave the obama apologetics to him.