Lavoy Allen
+ Inconsistent power forward with good short-range touch. Solid rebounder.
+ Criticized for low-revving motor. Very good passer, but passive.
+ Defensive mobility and effort a question mark.
A late second-round gamble, Allen was a four-year senior with an underwhelming resume, with his erratic effort level providing both his biggest question mark and his biggest opportunity. If Allen just starts competing on every play and stops coasting, he could have a career, and perhaps the threat of professional extinction will motivate him to do so. If he keeps playing like he did at Temple, however, he's a no-hoper.
Craig Brackins
+ Skilled big man who can shoot with range, run floor and jump.
+ Indifferent rebounder and defender; needs to add strength and upgrade motor.
+ College free throw and 3-point percentages disappointing, given shooting stroke.
Brackins' skills overlap those of Songaila, and it seems only one of them will emerge. Obviously, the answer is Brackins after this season -- Songaila's contract expires -- but given his strength deficit and reliance on skill, he might need some time to get his footing at the NBA level.
Elton Brand
+ Slow-footed big man with devastating midrange jump shot off pick-and-pop.
+ Solid rebounder, thanks to long arms and wide build. Decent handle for size.
+ Strong, smart team defender but overmatched against good post scorers.
Now that he can't run anymore, Brand has become Mr. Midrange, and did it effectively enough last season that he was still a very useful player. Last season he led the NBA in field goals from 10-to-15 feet with 159 and attempts with 325. To put this in context, he had about 25 percent more tries from that area than the next closest player, Dirk Nowitzki. He made them, too, making 48.6 percent, so nobody's complaining. However, one suspects he'll have trouble maintaining that lofty level, which is why he should expect his field-goal percentage and PER to regress about this coming season.
Meanwhile, Brand took fewer than three shots a game at the rim. He's no longer a dominating interior player, with middling rebound and free throw rates, and in particular he struggles to score against long defenders. However, the switch to jumpers reversed the plague of turnovers that descended upon Brand in his first campaign in Philly -- he had the eighth-best turnover rate among power forwards last season -- and as a result he had his best PER since injuring his Achilles. He's a smart player and these stats show it, as he made the necessary adjustments to compensate for his changing abilities.
Defensively, Brand still has long arms, a good base and his smarts, so the drop-off has been less noticeable. The Sixers don't let him anywhere near good post scorers, but as a helping big man he's effective and his physicality is beneficial.
Spencer Hawes
+ Skilled 7-footer who shies away from contact. Likes to shoot long jumpers.
+ Greatly improved rebounding. Has decent post game but rarely displays it.
+ Has size to be good defender but needs more toughness and strength.
What do you suppose it would take for this guy to draw a foul? Hawes only averaged 0.15 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, which was the fifth-worst among centers, but even that sells short the rarity of his achievement. For a young 7-footer to be this contact-averse is truly remarkable.
Consider this: Only three times since the NBA/ABA merger has a 7-footer aged 24 or younger played at least 20 minutes a game while averaging fewer than 0.17 free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
The three times?
-- Spencer Hawes, 2008-09
-- Spencer Hawes, 2009-10
-- Spencer Hawes, 2010-11
Hawes at least improved his rebound rate last season, but he's essentially turning into the new Rasho Nesterovic -- an otherwise moderately effective midrange shooting big man whose offensive impact suffers from a comically low free throw rate. As a result, Hawes' true shooting percentage was just 48.1 last season and annually ranks among the worst at the center position.
Hawes might make up for that by making 3-pointers instead of the long 2-pointers he tries now -- he made nine 3s last season and shot 39.6 on long 2s. But even better strategy would be to try taking advantage of the fact that he's 7 feet tall by attacking in the paint once in a while.
Defensively, Hawes' lack of mettle has a similar impact. While he improved on the boards last season, Synergy rated him among the worst defensive centers in the league, and the Sixers gave up 2.48 points less per 100 possessions with him off the court.
Jrue Holiday
+ Big, quick point guard with defensive talent, but struggles to fight past screens.
+ Developing offensive force with point guard skills and ability to get to basket.
+ Needs to improve 3-point shot and draw more fouls. Poor secondary percentage.
Holiday was only 20 years old last season, so the fact that he was a solid NBA point guard already is a very impressive sign for his future development. To develop into a star, as opposed to a merely decent player, Holiday will need to further ramp up his offensive efficiency. He's already fairly good at creating shots and will likely continue to make incremental progress in that area, but the standout stat from last season is that he was 54th among point guards in secondary percentage.
Holiday shot respectably from both the 3-point line (36.5 percent) and the free throw line (82.3 percent), but took both shots in such scarce quantities that he still had an unimpressive true shooting percentage. He only drew 0.21 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, which is poor considering how often he got in the paint, and less than a quarter of shots were 3s. Holiday shot 42.0 percent on long 2s and 61.0 percent at the basket, so the nuts and bolts are there; he just needs to learn how to draw fouls and convert some of those 20-foot 2s into 23-foot 3s.
The lone negative, perhaps, is that athletically Holiday is more "very good" rather than "overwhelming," with solid but not spectacular numbers in areas like usage rate, blocks, rebounds and steals. So Derrick Rose he ain't. The chances are very strong that Holiday will become a long-term star. He'll probably play in at least one All-Star Game, so the Sixers aren't complaining, but his development curve from here may be a bit flatter than for some other players.
Defensively, Holiday is potentially outstanding due to his combination of size and mobility, but was just average last season because of the magnets that compel him to crash into any and all screens. As a result, good pick-and-roll guards tore him apart. Holiday's net defensive plus-minus (minus-3.26 points per 100 possessions) and Synergy ratings were well below average, and opposing point guards cruised to an 18.6 PER against him according to 82games.com.
Andre Iguodala
+ Elite athlete who ranks among best perimeter defenders in basketball.
+ Dominant in transition due to handle, hops, speed and passing skills.
+ Average half-court player with erratic jumper. Able and willing passer.
Iguodala made a big turn toward being a "point forward" last season; his scoring rate dropped by 2.3 points per 40 minutes, but his assist rate shot upward. He led all small forwards in assist ratio and pure point rating; in fact, Iguodala's rating in both categories was the best in the NBA of any non-point guard (see chart; if you're looking for LeBron James, he was eighth).
Iguodala remains a dazzling finisher and a mediocre jump shooter; if anything, he reinforced those trends last season. He shot an amazing 72.6 percent at the rim, although he didn't get there as often as he used to -- the fact that Grant Hill had more shots at the rim in fewer minutes strongly underscores that point.
Instead, nearly half of Iguodala's 2-pointers were from 16-to-23 feet, and a quarter of his shots were 3-pointers. While he made a decent 37 percent of the long 2s and a passable 33.7 percent of his 3s, these are not strengths; the less he attacks the rim, the less effective a scorer he is. As a result, his true shooting percentage was just average despite his finishing skill and ability to get to the line. On the latter point, his career-low 69.3 percent free throw mark was a further drag, and attests to his lack of development as a shooter since entering the league -- he's no more accurate now than when he was 20.
Defensively, however, Iguodala is a master -- the league's best perimeter defender this side of Tony Allen. Iguodala also combined a sky-high steals rate with one of the lowest foul rates in basketball -- just 1.77 per 40 minutes. Only six players were lower, and none of them were checking James and Kobe Bryant every night.
The data backs up the subjective case for Iguodala's defensive excellence. Philadelphia was 4.02 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Iguodala on the court, while Synergy rated him the third-best defender at his position, behind only James and Ron Artest. The most impressive stat, however, is that Iguodala held opposing small forwards to a miniscule 10.2 PER last season.
Jodie Meeks
+ Knockdown outside shooter off catch or dribble. Scorer's instincts.
+ A bit undersized for 2 and an average athlete. Defensively suspect.
+ For a jump shooter, great at drawing fouls. Rarely fouls on D.
Meeks benefited from the paucity of shooters around him, becoming a starter by necessity, thanks to his sweet long-range stroke. He made 39.7 percent of his 3-pointers to help keep defenses honest, and played the sniper role to perfection -- 3/5 of his shots were 3s and he had the eighth-lowest turnover rate among shooting guards.
The more amazing feat, however, was that Meeks still had one of the highest free throw rates at his position. Meeks took 170 free throws, even though he only attempted 221 shots inside the 3-point line -- an amazing ratio, and one he exploited by making 89.4 percent at the line. As a result, he led all shooting guards in secondary percentage and was sixth in the league overall.
Meeks has little value in other respects. He doesn't create well for himself or others and he's not a good rebounder and, based on observation, he's suspect defensively, although statistically he wasn't that bad last year. He doesn't foul -- only three shooting guards were whistled less often -- but at 6-foot-4 he's undersized and he's not a great athlete.
Andres Nocioni
+ Aggressive, jump-shooting combo forward. Decent first step but bad handle.
+ Tough as nails but no longer has foot speed to guard 3s. Physical defender.
+ Poor rebounder for a 4 and will force shots. Plays below rim. Declining speed.
Nocioni was a bit less trigger happy last season and regained some of his lost rebounding mojo, but unfortunately he couldn't improve his accuracy much and he struggled to fulfill other requirements of a stretch 4. Most obviously, his turnover rate was way too high for a pick-and-pop guy; you can't rank 49th among power forwards in turnover rate if nearly half your shots are 3-pointers off the catch.
Nocioni's declining athleticism also shows on the stat sheet. He ranked second to last among power forwards in offensive rebound rate, fifth from the bottom in steals per minute and ninth from the bottom in overall rebound rate and PER. And because of his diminishing defensive value and tweener status, it's become increasingly hard to find decent matchups that allow him to stay on the floor.
Marreese Speights
+ Excellent midrange jump shooter with fairly quick release. Shoots every time.
+ Big build, may need to lose weight. Decent rebounder. Unmotivated defender.
+ Short for a 5 and slow for a 4. Unbelievably bad at taking charges.
Well, he can certainly shoot it. Speights shot 41.5 percent from 10-to-23 feet last season, and that's no fluke; he's put up similar numbers in previous seasons. He also finishes well around the basket, showing a nice touch when he catches in close. Averaging 18.7 points per 40 minutes, scoring is not his problem.
Instead, it's the other stuff. Synergy graded Speights as a strong defender last year, but subjectively he's still terrible -- he had one of the highest foul rates among big men; he had low rates of blocks and steals; and he's not terribly motivated to offer help. Using more advanced techniques, like the regularized adjusted plus-minus shown here, he was still a below-average defender -- he just played a lot of minutes with the Sixers' best defensive unit overall. Finally, he is perhaps the worst player I have ever seen at selling a charging call. He's actually trying in this area, so you feel for him a bit; he just has no thespian skills whatsoever.
Offensively, he's not in the clear, either. Speights can score, but that's pretty much all he does -- he shoots nearly every time and is getting a rep as a selfish player. Those weaknesses left Speights on the fringe of the Sixers' rotation, even though he's clearly talented. Getting in better shape would help, too, but the worry is that the lockout will send his conditioning in the opposite direction.
Evan Turner
+ Big wing who handles ball well for size. Deceptively good passer.
+ Rebounds well. Average athlete but tough and good size. Willing defender.
+ Poor outside shooter. Can create shots but lacks explosiveness at rim.
My research on disaster rookie seasons suggests that Turner still has a chance to be a very good player, but we can rule out superstardom. Looking at rookie wings aged 21 to 23 who played at least 1,200 minutes and had a PER between eight and 12, we conjured up six players that eventually played in an All-Star Game: Allan Houston, Jeff Malone, Richard Hamilton, Dan Majerle, Kiki Vandeweghe and Glen Rice. I also came up with a great many players who didn't become All-Stars, mind you -- my list is littered with assorted Dennis Hopsons and Lamond Murrays. Turner may very well join them, but subjectively he appears to have more in common with the Malones and Houstons. It wasn't a good rookie year by any stretch, but there's still hope.
Plus, Turner had some positives in his record. He was 14th among shooting guards in pure point rating and fifth in rebound rate. That pure point rating may still sell him short, as his assist quality (see Baron Davis comment) was well above the league average -- coinciding with my subjective assessment that he was making sweet pick-and-roll bounce passes to set up easy buckets for the bigs.
The biggest problem for Turner is that awful true shooting percentage, which basically comes down to two things. The first, well-known one is that he doesn't shoot well -- Turner only made 14 3-pointers all year and shot 36.9 percent on 2-pointers beyond 10 feet. The more troubling one is that he didn't draw fouls. Most of Turner's shots were midrange jumpers, with barely a third coming inside 10 feet. As a result, he wasn't able to pad his numbers with easy points at the line. With no 3s and ordinary free throw numbers, he had the fifth-worst secondary percentage among shooting guards.
Defensively, Turner blew some rotations -- all rookies do -- but he has good size and his effort was solid, and statistically there were few red flags. His main obstacle to a bigger role is simply converting shots into points.
Nikola Vucevic
+ Seven-footer with some skill around the basket. Soft touch. Can score in the post.
+ Decent rebounder but a bit on the soft side. Developing pick-and-pop game.
+ Good length and build, but suspect foot speed. Mostly plays below the rim.
Vucevic isn't terribly physical or athletic, but he's a true 5 at 7-foot-0, 260 pounds and he has some offensive skills. He has a nice short-range, pick-and-pop game that he will probably be able to extend further with age, and at just 20 years old, he is still adding to his skill set. He projects to be in the mold of Rasho Nesterovic or Nenad Krstic, which makes him a very serviceable mid-first-rounder in what most considered a weak draft. The biggest problem for him right now is that his talents appear to largely overlap those of Spencer Hawes, making it tougher for him to carve out a unique niche in the rotation.
Lou Williams
+ Small, shoot-first guard with outstanding quickness and awesome shot fake.
+ Draws fouls and creates shots but has a limited in-between game and mediocre J.
+ Too small to guard 2s, but can defend 1s when paired with a bigger point guard.
Williams' shot fake is so tempting that defenders bite on it virtually every time, even though he's not much of a threat as a jump shooter. He's a career 33.0 percent 3-point shooter who made 34.2 percent last season; he also made 37.0 percent of his long 2s and 21.1 percent from 10-15 feet. Let him shoot it, guys.
But they can't help themselves; Williams pulls his arms way up on the fake and it looks too much like the real thing for defenders to resist. Because of it, Williams is an effective scorer despite his shaky stroke. He was sixth among point guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt and eighth in secondary percentage, helping him overcome a 40.6 percent shooting mark. And he did this often, too -- Williams' per-game stats may not jump out at you because he only played 23 minutes a game, but he averaged a sizzling 23.5 points per 40 minutes.
Because Williams drew so many fouls on the perimeter, he also had a remarkably low turnover rate for a player with so many free throw attempts. While it was low for other reasons (like how rarely he passed, for instance), the results was that Williams led the Sixers in PER and ranked ninth overall among point guards.
Defensively, Williams is harder to spot minutes. While he's very quick, he's undersized, and because he's so focused on scoring one would prefer somebody else be the primary ball handler when he's on the court. Holiday's presence should help him since Holiday is big enough to guard many 2s, and certainly they need to find more opportunities to get Williams out there -- he led the team in PER last year but played less than half the game.
Thaddeus Young
+ Layup machine with speed in transition and nose for rim. Must improve jumper.
+ Left dominant but improved right hand. Likes to attack from foul line.
+ A tweener. Lacks size to play 4 full-time but a matchup nightmare off bench.
Quick, ask the nearest basketball fan who led the NBA in baskets at the rim per 40 minutes last season, and see how many guesses they need before "Thaddeus Young" rolls off their tongue. Bizarrely effective for a player without a real position, Young is not quite a 3 and not quite a 4; what he is, instead, is a layup machine.
Young led the NBA with a rim-area basket every 6.9 minutes (see chart), although that partly came about because of how shockingly rare it is for him to a draw a foul on his forays about the rim. Nonetheless, his high-percentage conversions on fast-break layups, short-range bank shots and the occasional free throw area jumper made him among the league's very best bench players last season; his spectacular adjusted plus-minus numbers back that assertion.
Although Young is only 22 and has put up very good numbers to this point, one wonders where he can take his game from here. His inability to defend the 4 makes him a tough sell as a starting power forward, yet his numbers have been dramatically worse at the 3 his entire career because of his shaky shooting and weak handle. While his dribble has improved a bit -- particularly his formerly ornamental right hand -- he's still something of a fish out of water on the perimeter.
Nonetheless, he's a valuable player. Few players play better as a sub than as a starter, but it appears Young may be one of them, and as long as he doesn't have to guard beastly post players he's an extremely effective two-way force.
Additionally, he raises the question of whether the Sixers should play small more often. Young's plus-minus differentials have been strongly positive in each of his four seasons, particularly when he plays the 4. While the Sixers are understandably reluctant to use he and Brand as a woefully undersized frontcourt tandem, they've been incredibly effective together in that alignment.
― Cooper Chucklebutt, Monday, 12 December 2011 17:28 (twelve years ago) link
Let the mayhem begin.
By Monday at 6 p.m. ET, interested teams will have to submit sealed bids in the first-ever "amnesty auction" to determine who, if anyone, will get the rights to point guard Chauncey Billups. A similar process already unfolded for the amnesty-qualified but thoroughly unloved Gilbert Arenas; eventually, we will probably see this process repeated for a few more players, including San Antonio small forward Richard Jefferson, New Jersey small forward Travis Outlaw, Golden State guard Charlie Bell and Houston center Hasheem Thabeet.
We may see some stealth candidates emerge in the next week, too, as we're going to see a few "opportunistic amnesties" to create cap space or exceptions for a free-agent deal. Bell and Thabeet are examples of that; depending on what the Clippers do to woo Chris Paul, Mo Williams could be another.
Another, less-discussed one is Portland center Marcus Camby. He's due $12.6 million this season, and cutting him would save Portland a nearly equal amount in luxury tax, plus it would create just enough room to let the team use its full midlevel exception. I consider it unlikely, but if the Blazers don't grant Brandon Roy amnesty -- a calculation that depends largely on how much their insurance payout will be -- Portland might decide to take the plunge with Camby.
But let's get back to Billups, because he is both first on the list and, almost certainly, the best player that is going to be available in this process. He's been doing his best to dissuade anyone from acquiring him, both because he'd like to choose a contender rather than the mostly downtrodden teams with enough cap space to bid on him, and because he can "double-dip" and get paid a second contract if nobody picks him up. Every player who receives amnesty is likely to do the same song-and-dance, but I doubt anyone will listen.
By my count, there are 15 teams which, by Monday, could potentially have enough cap space to bid the veteran's minimum (the minimum bid) and acquire Billups for this season (since he had one year left on his deal with New York before the amnesty).
Before we go to them, I must emphasize that whatever team gets Billups has him for the season. The ENTIRE season. According to ESPN.com's Larry Coon, players who are designated for amnesty status acquired via auction can't be traded until July 1.
So forget about picking up Chauncey as a trade chip -- you can't. That should cause a sigh of relief in the Billups camp, as it would seemingly take the league's five rebuilding teams with major cap space -- Charlotte, Sacramento, Toronto, Washington and Minnesota -- out of the picture, as well as the league-owned Hornets. (But can you imagine the uproar if the NBA submitted the winning bid?)
You can cross off Cleveland, Denver and Milwaukee too, since each would need to designate a player for amnesty to add Billups and each has a backcourt logjam already.
So who are the favorites to nab Mr. Billups? There are six teams that I'd give a non-zero chance of making a bid, and one in particular that I think would be well-advised to do so.
Let's go through them in reverse order:
6. Houston Rockets
Do not put this past Rockets GM Daryl Morey. While the Rockets have all their cap space committed to an offer sheet for Marc Gasol right now, they would regain their cap space if the Grizzlies match it by 5 p.m. ET on Monday. If so, the Rockets could potentially swoop in and nab a veteran point guard for their reconstructed roster ... and then trade Kyle Lowry or Goran Dragic for a starter at the wings. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Not ready to say that yet.
5. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors just used all their cap space to sign DeAndre Jordan to an offer sheet, which likely takes them out of the game ... unless the Clippers match it by 6 p.m. ET on Monday. If that were to happen, I'd think Golden State would immediately become a major player in the Billups chase.
Given that the Warriors just cut Jeremy Lin and have no backup guards with a minute of NBA experience, and given that they seem hell-bent on becoming a respectable playoff team this season instead of providing another wildly entertaining 32-50 campaign, Billups would seem to make a good target for them.
4. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers will be busy working every angle to get Chris Paul and at the moment are over the salary cap. They would get back under if they decline to match Golden State's offer sheet for DeAndre Jordan, or they could assign Mo Williams amnesty status to get back under the cap line and make a bid for Billups. Such a move would have virtually no impact on the Paul pursuit, since their cap space isn't an important consideration in those talks.
Billups makes some sense in L.A., as the Clippers have a potentially dominant front line that could use some more shooting to help spread out opponents, and Billups can play off the ball and space the floor with CP at the point. Billups would have some problems defensively, sure, but it beats the heck out of starting Randy Foye. Alas, I suspect it's highly unlikely that owner Donald Sterling would agree to pay a perfectly usable Mo Williams $17 million to play for somebody else, so the only way the Clips get in on this is if they decline to match the offer sheet to Jordan.
3. Indiana Pacers
While the Pacers have Darren Collison and A.J. Price at the point and George Hill as a combo guard, they don't seem terribly happy with their backcourt and are still looking to upgrade. The Pacers have $5 million in cap space after signing David West, a number that could jump to $12 million if they designate James Posey for amnesty. Billups would be a stopgap solution. But the Pacers, along with the Clippers and Warriors, are looking to make a big jump in the standings this season. A lineup with Billups, West and Danny Granger would be among the best-shooting teams in basketball; at worst, Billups would be a major upgrade over Price at backup point guard.
Of course, Indy may be content to keep its powder dry and use it in other ways; for instance, a sign-and-trade of Josh McRoberts for O.J. Mayo would eat up their remaining space unless they use their amnesty rights on Posey. I put them only third on this list because I'm not hearing much about them having interest, but connect the dots and it makes some sense.
2. New Jersey Nets
The Nets have $22 million in cap space if they put the amnesty tag on Travis Outlaw, but they're going to need it all to put together a trade for Dwight Howard that allows the Magic to dump Hedo Turkoglu's contract, and aside from Brook Lopez that's pretty much the main "asset" the Nets have for a Howard deal right now. Although they need a backup point guard and could play Deron Williams and Billups together for big chunks of the game, I would consider them highly unlikely to make a bid.
Ironically, the one way New Jersey might get involved is if Nene agrees to terms. That would blow up the Nets' cap space anyway, so New Jersey would have more motivation to submit a bid. The Nets wouldn't have much room unless they renounced Kris Humphries -- I'm guessing they'd rather not -- but they could assign amnesty to Outlaw and bid the veteran's minimum for Billups if Nene's first-year salary is $14.5 million.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
And now we're down to the team that could really use Billups and have the money free and clear. Oklahoma City still has $2.8 million in cap room, a number that could go up if they (a) cut Royal Ivey and his $1.2 million, (b) reach a buyout agreement with Nate Robinson to lessen his $4 million cap hit, or (c) use their amnesty tag on Robinson.
The thought of Billups with this team has to have Thunder GM Sam Presti rubbing his hands diabolically. Not only would Billups' savvy be an incredible teaching tool for the Thunder's kids, but he's exactly the kind of efficient deep shooter they need to space the floor for their dynamic athletes. Although it would stymie the progress of Eric Maynor and Reggie Jackson a bit, the Thunder are probably ready to make this type of move. The West is theirs for the taking, and Billups can help get them there.
― Cooper Chucklebutt, Monday, 12 December 2011 18:38 (twelve years ago) link