2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

romney/rubio is a decent ticket. they'll carry 42 states in '12

That's going too far. Obama vs. Romney will be close either way, and Obama is all but certain to win at least 16 states, and probably closer to 25. The home-state factor for Rubio would probably help Romney lock in Florida (and likely NC; maybe VA too), but that's no guarantee imo - Rubio did not in fact beat his rivals in 2010. And while he does speak Spanish and tout an immigration narrative, I'm at least somewhat skeptical about his appeal to non-Cuban hispanics, especially in the West (where Obama's margins were also much larger than they were in the Southeast, though Mormons will be among the mitigating factors next year). I'm also uncertain about how his Catholic-turned-evangelical religious background will play. Not to mention the fact that he'll only be 41 on election day, younger than JFK was, with only a year and a half in national office, and no executive experience unless you count Speaker of the FL House. For these and other reasons, he may prefer to wait to seek higher office, which is pretty much what he's said.

I present Bob McDonnell as a more experienced alternative because he simultaneously plugs Romney's holes (quiet) - he looks and sounds more than Romney the part of a socially and fiscally conservative (quasi-)Southern Republican - while reinforcing Romney's strengths as a can-do Governor with appeal across the aisle (he somehow enjoys very high approval ratings in VA, which of course borders NC, despite being a complete wingnut). Even his personal style echoes Romney's in a way that would be more attractive to the typical GOP voter (I think; the similarity could backfire instead, as I think would be likely with a more patrician Rob Portman).

Put it this way - if Romney needs Rubio to win Florida, he's probably toast anyway. Now, which of these guys will better help him win Ohio (the State most likely to put him over the top, perhaps)? Keep in mind that McDonnell is Irish Catholic and went to Notre Dame. The counter-argument is that Romney is his own best surrogate in the "North", and Rubio better expands the map with theoretical appeal in both the Southeast and Southwest.

Not that these are the only two guys - while he doesn't need to, it's possible Romney might pick someone more experienced like Mitch Daniels, perhaps, or, slightly less boring, John Thune. Or he might double down on a Great Lakes/Northeastern strategy with Chris Christie, but while that's potentially high-reward, it's also possibly high-risk - even if he could pull off two (or more?) of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio, in addition to New Hampshire, he might still be leaving his Southern flank exposed (theoretically Obama might have a better chance at not only holding FL/NC(/VA), but maybe even pulling off MO or GA). Not sure how various candidates would play in AZ, which the GOP is likely to win again, but could be quite a bit closer without McCain the race and with an increasing hispanic population.

That's going too far.

you're right. romney/rubio will only carry 40 states.

I don't think the geographic factors matter that much for the vp pick, w/ a few exceptions. like rubio might get you a few points in florida but I don't buy that there's a regional effect beyond that. the last two GOP vp candidates were from...wyoming and alaska. when's the last time a vp pick has had a real and valuable regional effect?

imo he'll pick someone loud and crazy.

well, i think rubio's a pretty good bet. he's a tea-party darling, and yet isn't overtly crazy or inarticulate.

easy counterpunch, btw: swap jobs for biden and HRC.

when's the last time a vp pick has had a real and valuable regional effect?

Gore? Unless Clinton would have done just as well in the South without him...in which case, LBJ?

clinton would have done just as well in the south without him

and yeah I think both rubio and the biden/hrc swap are reasonably likely

it's just a pr stunt but it'd be weirdly effective

Kennedy took Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas; I guess Texas alone makes LBJ the answer.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1960

(I know 1960 was pre-Civil Rights Act/"Southern Strategy," but surely Kennedy doesn't win all of those states without LBJ.)

Speaking of LBJ, this 1972 photo of him is amazing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lyndon_B._Johnson_1972.jpg

Bah, if that didn't work for whatever reason:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lyndon_B._Johnson_1972.jpg

jfk/lbj is a good example but not only was this pre-southern strategy but it was also an era that didn't have the ultra-partisan voting demographic we have right now. there aren't *that many* peoples' votes in play and who's really like "oh, if that guy becomes president and then gets shot, the person who will then be president is from a state that is 5 hours away from me. I think I'm voting for him."

edwards did *nothing* for kerry iirc

Also: a Dem prez nominee could reasonably assume he could carry the Solid South, despite Eisenhower's inroads.

Joseph "Hot Lips" Biden as secretary of state? Doubtful.

yeah he would be pretty horrible, wouldn't he? maybe some other position then. but regardless a clinton as vp seems like a reasonable stunt esp if he's consistently trailing in the polls by a few points. I doubt it will happen if and/or when he's ahead.

That picture was from when LBJ was playing fiddle for Wet Willie, right near the end.

Stevenson carried the South fairly solidly in '52/'56 (except Texas and Florida...and the rest of the country), so I don't know how Kennedy would have fared with, say, another Northerner on the ticket. Had the identity of the parties re Civil Rights already started to shift by that point?

I'm confident and at ease that Newt will survive tonight stronger than ever. Serenity now. Serenity now.

http://unionresourcecenter.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/train+derailment1.jpg

oh yeah! there's a debate tonight. hm.

mitt not getting it done, so far

ohhhhhhhh . . . may have to watch.

i read tweets saying gingrich is nicely deflecting the attacks (seems to be enjoying them).

(sigh) is there a live feed of this?

challenging someone to a $10K bet onstage is nagl for a nominee

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC1i9qLUgPY

Shoulda pulled the ten grand out of his pocket to drive home the point. "See? I've got it right here! Ten grand! Let's do it!"

Bizarre: Newt-Romney outflanked on all sides. Except for his roundly booed line about losing to Teddy Kennedy--which is true!--Newt's doing okay.

Don't you get ABC, Daniel? It's as national as it gets (unless I'm just lucky that Buffalo's carrying it).

Bizarre: Newt-Romney outflanked on all sides. Except for his roundly booed line about losing to Teddy Kennedy--which is true!--Newt's doing okay.

― clemenza, Saturday, December 10, 2011 8:44 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink

I didn't think it was booing I think it was more like "ohhhhhhhhhh no you didn't!"

Agree with Sullivan on how annoying Diane Sawyer is. Stephanopoulos, meanwhile, is as much of an agitator as we was during the 2008 Democratic debate in Philadelphia...except tonight I'm enjoying it.

lol Perry is so pathetic

hey looks like i turned this on at the right time

oh, now they're fighting about who is bigger friends w/ bibi. these guys are more hardcore on israel than i am

crowd doesn't know what to think about an issue that's not about taxes or Obama

i wonder if this is frustrating for the republicans -- they can climb over each other arguing about who loves israel the most and i'm still not going to vote for them

romney/rubio will only carry 40 states

States Obama is almost certain to win (with his 2008 margin therein):
Hawaii (45)
Vermont (37)
Rhode Island (28)
New York (27)
Illinois (25)
Massachusetts (25)
California (24)
Connecticut (22)
Washington (17)
Maine (17)
New Jersey (16) - Christie could put it in play, but is unlikely to win it; he didn't even beat his opponents (collectively)
Oregon (16)
Michigan (16) - Romney's birth here might substantially reduce the margin, aided by high unemployment, but it will be mitigated by his expressed desire to let the auto industry die
Wisconsin (14)
Minnesota (10)
^none of these States have voted for a Republican for President since Clinton came on the scene, and all except Oregon gave Obama a 50% or better approval rating in September. Romney may be a more attractive Republican to them than any since Poppy Bush/Reagan (Rubio not necessarily), but that isn't enough to win them.

States Obama will probably win:
Iowa (10) - it really belongs in the above category, having only gone for Bush over Kerry by 10K votes in a year in which Nader+other got 13K, and given Obama a 49% approval rating and reasonably solid head-to-head polling performances; still, its small size does make it a slight wild card
New Mexico (15) - like IA, it really belongs in the above category with such a wide margin and strong demographic moves in favor of the Democrats (neighbor McCain lost badly), but its small size and only a 46% approval rating make it just slightly unpredictable, and Bush beat Kerry here by 6K votes (in a year in which Nader+other got 8K), I think after at least one net had prematurely called the election; still, probably pretty safe for Obama, who is polling very well head-to-head (and benefits from low unemployment)
Pennsylvania (10) - Democrats never win by a lot here (it's Alabama in the middle, as they say), but they do always win, and while Obama has been tied or behind in many polls of the state, none of the Republicans have risen above the lower 40s and Obama outperformed his polls (and most Democrats) last time on strong black turnout; Christie could potentially really put the State in play (mitigated by Biden's roots), but I'm not sure he'd do that much that Romney cannot
Colorado (9) - a little closer than more hispanic New Mexico, with a little more Mormon influence, but Obama has continued to poll reasonably well here head-to-head
Nevada (14) - another small state, where Obama's margin may be dangerously reduced due to a long border with Utah/Mormon influence and some hispanic/general disillusionment (plus very high unemployment), and indeed Romney has often been tied in polling here, but also another state where Obama is aided by continuing demographic advantages that may be insurmountable and he substantially outperformed those polls in 2008, when again neighbor McCain got badly beat

Obama 2008 States that are Tossups:
New Hampshire (10) - Romney's media exposure from Massachusetts and 2008 is already helping here (where Bush won by 7K votes in 2000, while Nader got 22K, and where Obama enjoys unusually low approval ratings for a state he carried last time) - he now solidly leads in the polls. Whether the anti-Obama sentiment (racism?) that was prevalent in the 2008 primary will again evaporate by election day remains to be seen - the State's small numbers and flintiness make it hard to forecast.
Ohio (5) - the (perenially) truest tossup and perhaps keyest state in the race; Obama is tied in the polls, facing an unhappy but unpredictable electorate, but probably has a slight incumbency edge nevertheless
Virginia (6) - Romney, who probably eats away at some of Obama's tech community support, has at least a slight lead in polling, some of which Obama outperformed late, and a McDonnell pick might help put the State away
Florida (3) - Romney is well ahead in polling here, where unemployment is high, and the State looks gone for Obama, especially if Rubio is on the ticket, though the economic situation and demographics make it difficult to predict
North Carolina (-) - with a very slim 2008 margin, one might have to say it's gone, except continuing hispanic (and black? white educated male?) demographic trends may mitigate against that, reflected in polling in which Obama remains within the margin with Mitt as well as more popular than he is in some safer states

States Obama will probably lose but could theoretically win (especially if there's a third-party candidate):
Indiana (-) - Obama's neighborly advantage was good for just a 0.03% victory margin, and he lives in Washington now; still, some decent demographic trends in his favor
Missouri (-) - margin was close enough last time (just -0.13%) that with depressed conservative turnout, theoretically Obama could pull it off like (fellow) neighbor Clinton did twice; unlikely, though
Montana (-2) - trend is strongly away from Obama, who is unlikely to pull off Clinton's '92 feat
Georgia (-5) - like NC, demographic trends in favor and relatively high Obama popularity (48%, higher than FL/NC/VA, not to mention AZ/CO/NV/NM) combined with a Northeastern Republican (this State did pick Clinton over Poppy Bush); not enough, though
Arizona (-8) - without McCain in the race, perhaps the second-most hispanic state in the Southwest will look a bit more like CO or NV? with an older population, that probably isn't enough, even if it went for Clinton over Dole

If Romney wins all of the tossups and GOP leaners, he wins the election (by 1 electoral vote). but I don't regard that as likely - I think Obama is the favorite to carry at least one of Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virginia (or one of the other Southern states).

Did you know that Newt Gingrich is an historian (and that Michelle Bachmann is a tax lawyer)?

I'm sure you lead from the rear, Rick.

I was really hoping that Perry would talk about his lifetime friendship with Bibi Netanyahu.

Haha

santorum: "the so-called... 'west bank.'"

he must've been about to say 'occupied territories' and thought better of it bc idk anyone who doesn't call the 'west bank' the west bank.

Didn't you think that was booing directed at Gingrich over the Teddy Kennedy remark, Matt? I was sure that's what it was.

nah man I really think it was more of a "dayyyuummm" reaction than booing, though I'm sure there were some boos in there. Maybe I'm just biased though, because it was my reaction.

I'm not watching but I keep reading tweets saying newt's doing well, better than romney, and perry isn't doing enough to really help himself.

so: I approve!

So the Governor of Iowa wins his shouted ad lib...It's all been kind of anti-climactic. Gingrich and Romney have been on defense the whole way, and they've more or less done okay. Santorum has probably done the most to help himself, but that probably just means he'll finish fourth in Iowa.

"wins with"...

So you're saying we'll soon have a santorum "surge"?

Ewww

No Santorum surge--possibly (my new cliche of the moment) a Santorum boomlet.

Weirdest moment of the night for me was when Perry was in the middle of an immigration answer, you heard a piece paper rustle loudly, and he seemed to zone out for two or three seconds.

The worst moment was probably Romney's silly $10,000 bet.

What was the bet?

Gingrich's "If we do survive" was...troubling.

Romney and Perry were arguing about the line that got deleted from subsequent editions of Romney's book.