2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

oh, i see what i did there.

to be fair, kobe, paul, howard, wade, bron, and bosh would make a better, smarter slate of presidential candidates than what the GOP has now.

I just figured Newt Fever had finally caused you to flip out.

"He seemed fine till Newt caught up in New Hampshire, then he just rambled on about basketball for the rest of the campaign."

Root for Newt

Newtonium: Enriching America

newt is actually being traded to the hoston rockets as part of this chris paul-to-la lakers deal, so . . .

Frum agrees with me re: Gingrich's biggest problem being his inability to work within his own party

The most important thing to remember about Newt Gingrich is that his colleagues in the House of Representatives effectively fired him as their leader even before the impeachment crisis, shifting power instead into the more competent hands of Tom DeLay. It was Tom DeLay who ran the caucus while Newt Gingrich was traveling the country giving speeches about Total Quality Management and the Struggle for Western Civilization.

Gingrich was not pushed aside by his caucus for any of the offenses listed above. He was pushed aside because he plunged the caucus into chaos, because he lost fights that he himself had chosen, because he could not control his mouth, because he wanted to be a star more than he wanted to get things done. There’s a reason Gingrich is fascinated by management gurus: he needs the help.

Basically, I don't disagree with anything negative that's being said about Gingrich right now--I'm quite sure it's all true, and a lot worse than that. I'm just not sure anymore if it's going to matter in terms of the nomination. Something has propelled him to where he is right now, and I don't think you can just say that he's an anti-Romney vessel anymore; there's more to it than that. Of the explanations offered upthread, the one that makes the most sense to me is that he's the guy who (in the eyes of Republicans) is finally going to put Obama in his place--who's going to talk circles around him in the debates, who'll hiss the proper amount of contempt, who'll (fundamentally) put him in his place. Republican voters don't know Morbius, so they're going with Newt. He may implode, he may not.

what's propelled him is that the other non-romney's are stupid, embarrassing clowns.

and as Morbz would say, no votes have been cast. there's a lot more to getting a nomination than being out front in polls.

Well, sure. But leading in three of the first four states is a good place to be on Dec. 8.

<i>what's propelled him is that the other non-romney's are stupid, embarrassing clowns.</i>

I don't think it's that straightforward. That gave him an opening, sure, but none of the previous non-Romneys got close to where he is today. I think there's something deeper that's come to the surface, like there was with Palin or Nixon.

Gingrich / Paul 2012: Drop the Newt-Ron bomb!

Quayle yesterday, John Sununu (Sr.) today--Romney's really raiding the Crossfire-era closet for surrogates. Expecting Liddy Dole, Ralph Reed, Richard Thornburgh, and Al D'Amato any day now.

http://www.nhpr.org/post/romney-sics-sununu-gingrich

politico ran a story this evening that newt's rise has really taken romney off-guard, and forced him to go on offense at a time (and in a way) he didn't want to.

What Romney really wanted was stroll through the primaries, with no serious challengers.

Next episode begins tomorrow!

It's going to be a tricky debate for both of them. Romney has to snap out of his slumber and attack; Gingrich will likely be forced to step down from Mount Buddha and actually say less than complimentary things about Romney--and may even get pushed enough that he turns nasty.

How come there are never any debates at like 3 PM on Sunday? (I know: football.) I'd like to watch one in real time one of these days.

newt doesn't have to do that at all! in fact, he should keep being somewhat generous toward his GOP opponents, as he has been in these debates, and take only sly, veiled attacks at romney (unless things get out of hand). he is good at those types of attacks, actually, and he gets a lot out of them in terms of silent signaling to his constituency.

Maybe, maybe not. Allowing yourself to be attacked unchecked is a risk. Ask John Kerry.

Good post/links from Sullivan:

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/12/does-romney-have-time-to-go-negative.html

The gist being that Romney will be running the much greater risk.

Here's some Nate Silver for ya.

The resistance to Romney among his party's activists is so strong that in my view, he's cooked. Once they converge on their preferred anti-Romney choice, which appears to be His Newtness atm, they'll wipe Romney out of the picture.

But it really doesn't matter who they choose as their anti-Romney, as long as they choose someone. Newt's big recent surge makes it odds on that the activists have finally stopped dithering and wistfully yearning for Palin as their paladin, and he has inherited the nutty Cain coalition.

Meanwhile the conservative pundits have united in their loathing for Newt.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/newt-gingrich-will-not-be-the-republican-nominee--even-if-it-means-a-brokered-convention/2011/08/25/gIQARQ0DiO_blog.html

I'm not as convinced as Klein is that the pundits hold such sway over the nomination process though.

really curious to see how this whole this plays out; i'm not mr. historian but i believe we are in unknown territory in a lot of ways in this election.

the last democratic contest got very heated; underlying this was the fact that its two lasting candidates were both well respected and loved in the party, and normally could draw big constituencies within it.

if the gop contest shakes down to just romney and gingrich, it would be nearly the opposite situation. neither one of them has a majority (or even very large) support base within the party, each has huge negatives at either the elite or base level. how nasty can it get if nobody likes either enough to fight? i wonder if it will turn out to be sort of... dull.

If Gingrich does amass an early lead against Romney, I would not be too surprised to see a late-entrant whom establishment Republicans could rally behind.

i would, that person doesn't exist

^^^

It'd be too late. Delegates promise themselves to candidates months in advance; it'd take a lot of scrambling to get them to swtich.

also that person has no route to securing the number of delegates required

xpp

Those are all serious difficulties, true, but I think the need to have someone who could stop Newt would be so great that otherwise improbable things could become possible, as Klein put it.

lol Rove in total damage control mode

there is no way a long primary benefits the GOP - it drains money for one thing

yes he explained that twaddle to George Stephanopoulus this morning

Kristol had something yesterday on the white-horse idea:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/gop-s-valentine-s-day-option_611730.html

Really seems delusional to me.

I mean I love that he equates the state of the current GOP with the state of the Dems in 2008 but it's just demonstrably untrue - as I think Nate Silver pointed out about 2008, the Dems would have unified behind either frontrunner. The GOP shows no such eagerness to unify.

xp

Kristol is delusional 24/7 god I hate that guy

There is a precedent to the "white knight" scenario. In this case the 1976 Democratic primary, in which the more liberal/Northern wing got scared by Carter's ascendance and fielded Church and Brown as late candidates - too late, in that case, though they won several late primaries.

they did not get the nomination tho

the dem primary in 2008 involved the varied spectrum of the left-center-right leaning dems taking (pretty sure anyway..) while the gop split involves the insane rump of the party refusing to sign on with anyone remotely sane

Kristol's article, key quote:

"...another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates..."

1200 of 2282? So this mystery contender would pop in out of nowhere and sweep the board by winning 95% of the remaining delegates? This is straight up delusion.

such a hateful buffoon, he's a disgrace to journalism

you really have to read anything from bill kristol as coming from bizarro world

Read the whole thing, with its charts of when delegates will be chosen and its discussion of filing deadlines. It wouldn’t be easy to pull off a late draft or a late entry, but it’s not as impossible as conventional wisdom assumes.

The key, I think, would be if both Romney and Gingrich stumbled during January. If that were to happen, there would be a window of opportunity in February—during the gap between the first spurt of January primaries and Super Tuesday on March 6. The window probably closes around Valentine’s Day—Tuesday, February 14—so let’s call the late entry the Valentine’s Day option. That could be the last chance (unless there’s a deadlocked convention, which isn’t totally outside the realm of possibility either) for Republicans to throw off the old suitors and run into the arms of a new Prince Charming. Or two. And Valentine’s Day is for the young.

translation: the conventional wisdom is true, we are pretty much fucked.

ryan-rubio! *eyroll*

1200 of 2282? So this mystery contender would pop in out of nowhere and sweep the board by winning 95% of the remaining delegates? This is straight up delusion

They wouldn't need to win 95% of the remaining delegates because presumably the front-runner at that point wouldn't have 100% of the already-awarded delegates. A simple plurality would be enough.

Plurality would be enough to deadlock the convention, perhaps, but not enough to win. Besides, there ain't no white knights waiting out there for the draft.

Silly above and beyond all the rest: the idea that Paul Ryan would be a good candidate to send into a general. Wasn't there a swift and pronounced push back against his budget both within and without the party?

Besides, there ain't no white knights waiting out there for the draft.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Sarah_Palin_Germany_3_Cropped_Lightened.JPG/170px-Sarah_Palin_Germany_3_Cropped_Lightened.JPG

Oh wait.

1) there are no candidates out there with that drawing power. if there were, they would have run already
2) if they enter late they have 0% of the already awarded delegates, so they would need 95% of the remaining delegates to secure a majority for the nomination. otherwise they just muddy the field even worse and the end result is a brokered convention.

i would, that person doesn't exist

― slandblox goole, Friday, December 9, 2011 2:23 PM (41 minutes ago)

silver says he'd put the % of this happening at 5-10, which i don't really see either