2012 GOP Presidential Campaign -- "This individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time."

OK, we need a primary thread in this here sandbox.

― Lord Sotosyn, Monday, November 28, 2011 5:35 PM

so be it.

please media, leave herman cain alone. stop being mean.

poor hermie

Herman's dead--he sleeps with the fishes. We have to start planning strategy for Newt, Daniel, some way to Newtralize his Newtness long enough for him to get past Iowa.

from politics thread:

I don't know...effective, but too early, looks panicky. And in a poor economy, I think the flip-flop strategy will cause massive shrugging. I also suspect, as unfair as it may be, that for a number of voters, Democratic flip-flopper (i.e., Kerry) = weak, spineless, but Republican flip-flopper = pragmatic, has no choice but to head-fake all the wingnuts.

― clemenza, Monday, November 28, 2011 5:34 PM (20 minutes ago)

I think it's a mistake to group all 'flip-floppers' (barf) together. in a lot of ways 'spineless' vs. 'pragmatic' is actually pretty accurate when it comes to kerry vs. romney!

I don't think the flip-flop tag (or swift boats) lost kerry the election, but otoh I think it stuck because he couldn't sell a better narrative. he wasn't aiming for 'pragmatist' (after the primaries at least). romney might, but the question is more whether that's gonna sell to the base than to swing-voters. even after he gets the nomination, he can't step too far to the left w/ the currenct gop.

my motto: LET NEWT SURGE

btw, robert reich tweets this prediction about the general-election:

@RBReich
Robert Reich 2012 race: Romney/Rubio vs. Obama/Clinton.

Anyone want to give a Britisher the low-down?

Where I was:

No-one actually likes Romney so they tried-

Texan who is rubbish at public speaking

Pizza guy who is an awesome meme

-so I guess it is because to Romney? Or did Cain recover some how?

'because to Romney'? my inability to type properly added to being able to smell fried onions all day makes me wonder whether these are early warnings i'm having a stroke.

no now it's the speaker of the house from the 90s

everyone sorta hates him but he's 'smarter' than the other guys who aren't romney

and he has so much ugly shit on his resume that it all sorta cancels out for now

romney v. gingrich.

if gingrich falls, romney v. perry.

if perry falls, romney v. cain.

if cain falls, romney v. bachmann.

if bachmann falls, romney v. sant-- oh, never mind.

if bachmann falls, look for jeb bush to emerge from behind the curtain at the GOP convention.

lol at how much the gop are publicly not backing the guy who will eventually be their candidate. just give up and give it to him and use these 5 years to build a proper dude.

everyone sorta hates him but he's 'smarter' than the other guys who aren't romney

setting a high bar here.

how far down the list until jesse ventura has a chance?

he's right below santorum.

figuratively.

considering that this cheerleader pyramid began w/ donald trump, jesse venture prob could have had his moment in the sun if he had wanted it

Oh, I want Newt big-time, believe me--that's why I want him to stay out of his own way.

It is amazing to watch Cain (on CNN right now). He reminds me so much of when a quiet, credible student will tell me that some other student--maybe somebody who lies with great regularity, who's in trouble all the time--is doing something wrong. "Why are you doing this?" "I'm not." "Oh--*****, who never says two words, just decided to make this up for no reason?" "Yes."

cain should really draw from that funny-or-die skit. he should compile a list of each-and-every adult women in the U.S. who has never accused him of harassment or an extra-marital affair, and then insist on reading it -- top-to-bottom -- the next time a journalist mentions the accusations.

this has the added bonus of taking up a lot of time. he could make it even better by saying "999!" between each name.

999 as in the emergancy telephone number? oh wait that is 911 in america. 999% percent?

999 is the best economic plan for the 99%, as proven by science, 99 out of 100 times.

By the way, I think Gingrich's immigration bombshell in the last debate was (besides amounting to basic decency) political genius. I don't think it'll cost him much--he'll either win Iowa or he won't, regardless--but it would be a huge advantage if he ever got to a general, and it goes a long way towards getting the media on his side.

he'll either win Iowa or he won't

i will wager $1,000,000,000,000 that this is true.

I don't think it'll cost him much

it will definitely cost him if he keeps it up

he's already begun defending himself against it, e.g., his silly "citizen counsels will decide which undocumented-persons will stay and which undocumented-persons will go" proposal.

yeah for sure, this is not a free lunch

That's about how much he got from Freddie Mac, right? What I mean is his immigration stand won't ultimately decide whether he wins or not...I don't think so; if he sticks with it, what he loses on the one hand from the heartless-bastard side of the party, he gains on the other by contrasting himself with Romney's equivocation. (Just saw him on CNN, and he repeated almost verbatim what he said at the debate: that you just can't rip apart families who've been here 25 years.)

what he loses on the one hand from the heartless-bastard side of the party,

this is the only side of the party

or, at the very least it's the only side of the party that votes in primaries

well, i think gingrich can innoculate himself on the issue to some extent, at least vis-a-vis romney.

newt and rove are smart enough to know that you can't win elections on racism forever, but that 'heartless-bastard side of the party' is aka 'the gop base'

You gotta have some faith in people. (I learned that from Mariel Hemingway in *Manhattan*.)

(speaking of good material for the next round of "romney flip-flop" ads)

okay, 61 calls from cain to this new accuser.

sadly, she is going to be dragged thru the mud. there's already stories circulating about how she is in financial distress and has faced evictions and bankrupcies over the past 20 years.

she shld blame herself for not being rich iirc

“Rather, this appears to be an accusation of private, alleged consensual conduct between adults - a subject matter which is not a proper subject of inquiry by the media or the public. No individual, whether a private citizen, a candidate for public office or a public official, should be questioned about his or her private sexual life.”

lol

It's too bad no one seems to use the word 'bloviator' any more. It would be a perfect fit for His Newtness.

i love how whenever you see a picture of herman cain now it's capturing him in the middle of some denial, joining the scene in media res while he fans the flames of a new allegation. he's always defensively poised, half-impatient half-indignant

u r addicts. someone tell Newt.

surely Obama is on the heartless bastard side of the Dems, no?

surely.

my 10 year-old daughter just said herman cain should compose a song to respond to the allegations of infidelity.

he does have a marvelous singing voice.

I already joined Newt's 2016 street team.

also Ditka is gonna be vp, you heard it here first

I was hoping that a Google search of "Newt's Street Team" would return some really cool images, but no luck.

http://www.allwwewrestlers.com/Mean_Street_Posse.jpg

oooh i saw a recent picture of the mean street posse the other day. if it weren't for joey abs looking exactly the same, i'd have had no idea it was them though.

(picture has been saved for future 'seeing 'taker in a pet shop: hal(o)l of fame wrestlers pictures thread', no need to blow my load herre)

cain is going to drop out of the race very soon. watch for it.

Gingrich already trying to re-establish how much he hates Mexicans lol

English as the "official language", support for draconian anti-immigration state laws etc

cain 're-assessing' his candidacy.

“He is not thinking of dropping out of the race,” Gordon added. “He is simply reassessing the state of the campaign. We intend to be full speed ahead.”

Yeah, he'll be out by Thursday, at the latest.

u guyz are a Roman Colosseum crowd

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/15/Roman_Legion-Hare_frame.png/220px-Roman_Legion-Hare_frame.png

it's true I love a good Christian disemboweling

not really i'm sad about it

herman cain brings the lolz

I wish he would stick around.

don't worry.

where the presidential campaign ends, the FOX news talk-show begins.

no one cares about Herman Cain the Pundit, come on now

Yeah, Huckabee as host is way less fun than Huckabee as candidate (although I could see deriving some pleasure out of a Palin interview show).

Huckabee's show is hilariously bad

no one cares about Herman Cain the Pundit, come on now

probably right. this makes me sad. don't quit, herman cain.

no one cares about Herman Cain the Pundit, come on now

I care. I care deeply.

I would need to confer with the experts and generals and advisors before making a decision about whether I care or not

we can care about this more thoroughly over dinner later

WOOT WOOT

you hear that, former gov. mitt romney?

http://www.samhurdphotography.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/mitt-romney-7.jpg

(truthfully i think the polling shows about 50% of cain's supporters list romney as their second choice, so in fact, cain dropping out might help romney. but whatevs.)

Pundit Cain will happen because the reactionaries need more black faces. It is part of their strategy of shock and awe.

Michael Steele has sold out to MSNBC, so Fox needs a Cain.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Alan_Keyes.jpg/220px-Alan_Keyes.jpg

lol even Keyes went to MSNBC for his show

black Republicans know what's up, y'all

I haven't watched afternoon news in a while. Is Sharpton's show still on the air at MSNBC?

i actually like michael steele a lot, the few times i've seen him on MSNBC.

When you go from Eisenhower to Nixon to Reagan to W. to Palin to Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Newt, it must be difficult to believe in evolution

lol

Yeah, Steele is a very reasonable fellow...which makes me wonder why he was ever the RNC chairman. Still, puppet Steele >>>>> real Steele.

xp stealing that for fb

What's the quote from?

how about when you go from FDR to Stevenson to JFK to Humphrey to Carter to Clinton to Bam

Obama's totally better than Clinton imho

and Dean was dumb as a stump.

FOR ALFRED:

Newt's Coup de Grace
It is beginning to look likely that Cain will soon bow out of the race. There are only so many lies a man can tell in public, and his previous lies keep requiring him to tell more. Only Palin gets away with that kind of thing. Currently, Cain is at 15 percent. Give much of that to Gingrich - as has been happening so far - and Newt becomes the immediate front-runner, with support in the 40 percent range to Romney's ceiling of 25. That changes the whole dynamic.

Meanwhile, Romney is faltering:

_________________________________

There are 13 places PPP has polled the Republican race in October or November where it also did a poll sometime between January and March. In those places Romney's net favorability has dropped by an average of 15 points over the course of the year.

On average Romney's favorability with primary voters was 54/25 in these 13 places at the begininng of the year. Now it's only 50/35. His problem is partially that his positives have gone down but more than that it's that as his name recognition has increased, most folks moving off the fence have gone into the negative column.

_________________________________

I felt the wind behind Romney disappear in the last debate, and re-emerge behind Gingrich. Now Newt gets the Cain Bounce. And Romney may drift lower. No one likes him. And the more they see him, the less they love.

newt the inevitable.

let's hope they form a ticket:

NEWTMITT

Idle speculation on CNN last night: that Romney will try to enlist Huckabee to give him a boost in Iowa, maybe even offer him VP, even though they both supposedly despise each other. Wouldn't be the first time that happened.

a poem, for tuesday:

huckabee
will not be
romney's VP.

lol

(Cain) said. “I’ve got a major speech tonight at Hillsdale College on national security and foreign policy, and I will deliver it with vim, vigor, and enthusiasm."

of course he will.

hillsdale college will pack the hall with impressionable single ladies.

a President Cain would at least make it clear that the prez don't run shit.

(not that the current guy isnt making that point rather splendidly)

Sure he does – he runs the legal department that hires the elves who write memos authorizing assassinations abroad, drone attacks, and other cool stuff.

ALSO HE CALLED FOR THE CREATION OF A COFFEE MUG WITH HIS BIRTH-CERTIFICATE ACROSS THE BACK OF IT.

visionary.

maybe he meant he was counting on the drunk vote

Republican mash-up: "I’ve got a major speech tonight at Hillsdale College on national security and foreign policy, and I will deliver it with vim, vigor, and...vim, vigor, and...I'm sorry, I've forgotten."

Is Perry really that dumb, or is he just a terrible public speaker?

yes

he just told a group of college students to vote for him if they're 21 before the election.

voting age is 18.

shameful ignorance of the Constitution

I will deliver it with vim, vigor, and enthusiasm. No brio?! No pizzazz?! No zip?!

I am disappointed.

from FDR to Stevenson to JFK to Humphrey to Carter to Clinton to Bam

No love for Truman and LBJ?

"No pizzazz?!"

Joke writes itself for Herman.

shameful ignorance of the Constitution

When the 26th amdmt passed he was 21

They do things differently in Texas.

Texas: We do things differently

Texas: Think different.

No love for Truman and LBJ?

did a favor by neglecting a pair of genocidal maniacs

wait I thought all presidents were genocidal maniacs

Mattie Van Buren wasn't.

WHH?

It had to be said.

WHH?

predates his presidency but Battle of Tippecanoe, never forget

ezraklein Ezra Klein -- RT @AndrewNBCNews: Just asked Cain if he had plans to leave race. Responded: "999, 999, we're doing fine."

literally -- literally -- saying 999! in response to everything.

herman cain: visionary.

999! we're doing fine
999! all of the time
999! don't sweat the deets
999! leave it on repeat

maybe cain isn't quitting after all:

Having re-assessed whether his campaign should march on, Herman Cain emails this letter to his donor list. Above the text: A giant donation button.

____________________________________

Dear Patriots and Supporters,

As you probably heard yesterday, a troubled Atlanta business woman used national media outlets to promulgate a fabricated, unsubstantiated story about a 13 year affair with me. I am writing you today to assure you that this woman’s story is completely false.

I do know Ms. White. I have helped her financially at times over the past few years, just as I have helped many friends and acquaintances throughout the years. I thought Ms. White was a friend in need of a supportive hand to better her life.

Ms. White has made it apparent that she was abusing the friendship.

But now I am asking for your friendship. I am also asking for your prayers and support. This is a trying time for my family, my campaign, and for me. It is also a trying time for our country as we are all distracted from the truly important issues facing our nation.

This evening I have an important speaking engagement at Hillsdale College in Hillsdale, Michigan, where I will be outlining my foreign policy and national security plan. While recent events have taken a toll on me, the people in the audience this evening will not know it. I will deliver my message with vigor and enthusiasm.

Let me assure you, I am not deterred. America’s future is too important. We will continue on this journey to make America great once again.

Thank you and God bless.

Sincerely,
Herman Cain

____________________________________

Worth noting that Fox 5 has Cain making 61 calls to Ginger White, the last of them in September in 2011. That's some friendship! Cain's decided on the "crazy lying woman trying to bring me down" defense, the one he employed, with mixed success, during the sexual harassment story.

it's plain that those who say "cain can't remain" are insane.

Projecting far into the future, I'm trying to figure out if "61" will one day summon up images of Herman Cain and Ginger White for me, or if the number will continue to mean Roger Maris.

if there was true serendipity, ginger white would have been the 999th woman to accuse cain of infidelity or harassment, and there would have been 999 calls logged on her cell phone from cain, and 999 text messages from cain. and he would still deny any wrongdoing -- 999 times.

999! 999! 999! 999! 999! 999! 999! 999!

999 are we out of our minds? 999 we're doing fine.

Wasn't Ginger White the one stranded on Gilligan's Island? She used to be so glamorous.

obligatory joke about Cain's 6-9-9 plan

Why the base likes Newt.

Like Barney Frank basically said the other day, it all seems too good to be true. So I try to remind myself that it probably is.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/284330/down-goes-willard-robert-costa

https://mittromney.com/sites/default/files/Romney-2012-GrabBite-Donate.jpg?1321986247

Donate $5 to enter for a chance to grab a bite with Mitt. We don’t know when, where, or what the food will be – if it’s up to Mitt, it will probably be pizza. But this much is certain: one of you will get to meet Mitt and ask your questions. Donate today!

Pizza -- why, he's just an average Joe!

Pizza -- why, he loves sexual harrassment!

Just to clarify, are you guys salivating over Newt because he's the most connected to teh evil Bush administration or will he provide the most giggles too?

Newt is every bit the comedic motherlode that Bachmann, Perry and Cain have been.

With his controversial stance on illegal immigration, Newt has been making it clear that he hates to see families break up in times of crisis.

lol

i really hope there's another blast of bachmann this campaign. the whole thing, perry's ranch, everything cain, the agnosticism re: mitt, has really not disappointed, but her contributions - the HPV controversy, calling everyone socialists - have been kinda predictable, i feel like she needs to put her name to something insane before it wraps. i feel like marcus is a valuable but underexploited asset in this respect.

When do they finally have to go with Mitt someone?

*Just to clarify, are you guys salivating over Newt because he's the most connected to teh evil Bush administration or will he provide the most giggles too?*

W.? I didn't know there was much connection there with Gingrich. Anyway, I want to him to win for many reasons, beginning with a couple of obvious ones:

1) Promises an endlessly entertaining campaign, one that will be almost entirely about Gingrich. I realize that the idea that politics might be entertaining is offensive to some people. I find that entertaining, too.

2) Obama has a significantly better chance to beat Gingrich than Romney--although (I'm probably alone here), I don't think Obama would be a lock against even Gingrich if a bad economy were to get worse.

3) Obama-Gingrich debates would be fascinating, possibly the best ever.

4) People who've been posting here the last couple of months that Romney's a lock, and doing so almost with a bored yawn--I'd like to see them proven wrong.

5) Nominating a wishy-washy, sort-of reasonable bureaucrat like Romney will seem like a cheat. In view of the way Republicans have conducted themselves since Obama took office, I think it's only fitting that it be someone spewed up from the Republican id. And to that end, Gingrich would be even better than Perry, and almost as good as Palin.

Again, though--I try to remain realistic, aware that Gingrich could implode at any minute.

ok well colour me excited for lols. hope usa mines every lol from perry and pizzaguy first though.

I think Herman's pretty much exhausted his laugh-quotient; Perry may have a surprise or two left (like yesterday's confusion over voting age).

obama would win easily against gingrich, and i think the GOP establishment knows it. also, many -- many, many -- lolz if ginrich wins the republican nomination.

http://www.lpzoo.org/sites/default/files/images/facts/emperor_newt.jpg

Gingrich has so, so, so much dirt on his CV

shhhh.

LET NEWT SURGE

I agree that Obama would be a huge favourite against Gingrich; it's difficult to imagine the country choosing Gingrich as president.

But it was also close to impossible at one point imagining that Gingrich might win the nomination. If it ever did come down to Gingrich-Obama--and let's say Europe gets even messier, and that spills over into 10 or 11% unemployment over here--than I think you need to leave open the possibility that there would be so much anger at that point, people would be ready to vote in Pauly Shore.

man i want to see the VP choices for gingrich, for the value of the ideological and aesthetic pairing. how about gingrich -- boehner? who-hoo! or gingrich -- trump! dare to dream.

why has the Cain Train derailed?

lol

WHY IT'S STRONGER THAN EVER

more than ever, we need Herman Cain

if cain could only make a voting block out of the women he's allegedly harassed or with whom he's allegedly had affairs, he might have enough support to win the GOP nomination.

Sizable voting blocks:

Newt -- ex-wives.
Huntsman -- people who thought, "Kurt Cobain?"

Obama-Gingrich debates would be fascinating

this is a new level of derangement

if Newt is nominated I will kiss all of yr asses is Macys window

If Gingrich is leading NH polls ten days before the primary, look for amazingly timely, scandalous "revelations."

Oh, come on--Obama and Gingrich would be amazing. Gingrich could say anything at any time, and Obama would be walking a tightrope--how much to hang back and let Gingrich destroy himself, but at the same time running the risk that Gingrich pounces (obviously Obama is vulnerable all over the place). Or if Obama debated aggressively, that would just increase the chance that Gingrich goes off.

I think I'm w/ you morbs but otoh the fact that romney still hasn't sealed this up might suggest that this might be an unusual primary

dr. m is probably right, and that just tells you how little people are paying attention (because none of those possible "revelations" are actually new).

the thing is that the extent to which they'd damage gingrich at that point is largely dependent on the mood of the anyone-but-romney voting bloc at the time. if there's no alternative to gingrich (or at least none that could be settled upon in time), the "revelations" may not matter.

intrade has romney at 53.8%, newt at 30%

that's absurd I should go make some money off this

THAT'S CRAZY THERE IS NO MONEY TO BE MADE FROM POLITICS.

everyone knows this.

willing to suggest that there's *some* chance of this going all weird and romney not getting it, but 50%?

btw, rick perry is now a populist

CarrieNBCNews Carrie Dann -- "You don't have to sit back & take it any more," "reach beyond the confines of the Beltway." Big push against "insiders" (read: Mitt/Newt)
____________________________

CarrieNBCNews Carrie Dann -- More Perry: "Americans were snookered" by "Wall Street highrollers" who were "betting against America." Harsher than usual.

____________________________

CarrieNBCNews Carrie Dann -- Populist Perry this AM in Nashua: "What's wrong with America can be diagrammed on a napkin... Straight line between DC and Wall St"

CarrieNBCNews Carrie Dann -- Populist Perry this AM in Nashua: "What's wrong with America can be diagrammed on a napkin... OOH I DREW A DOGGIE!"

LOL

If Gingrich is leading NH polls ten days before the primary, look for amazingly timely, scandalous "revelations."

I sorta doubt Newt will pull ahead in NH but if so, yeah this is going to happen. Newt will never get the nomination, will probably limp through Iowa and NH and bank all his hopes on South Carolina.

btw, rick perry is now a populist

If someone doesn't kick him in the nuts for this, we should just give ourselves back to Britain. His corporate whoredom is blatantly obvious.

<i>Newt will never get the nomination, will probably limp through Iowa</i>

He may well get crushed in NH, but, barring sudden developments, it doesn't look like he'll be limping through Iowa. "Never"'s a strong word; the older I get, the less and less I'm inclined to speak in absolutes.

Square brackets--okay, now I get it.

Newt will never get the (GOP) nomination

______________________________________

"Never"'s a strong word; the older I get, the less and less I'm inclined to speak in absolutes.

i will go out on a limb and say the following people will never get the GOP nomination.

• hillary clinton
• abe vigoda
• bradford cox, from deerhunter
• prof. griff, from public-enemy
• prof. newt gingrich, from the planet look-at-me

Never say never, but even among Republicans Newt's negative numbers are probably insuperable and even if they want to nominate someone who Obama is likely to beat, they'll want someone they actually like.

i feel like newt will fuck this up and flame out at some point because he's newt gingrich and that's what he does.

Chamblis/Duffy '12

i feel like newt cain perry will fuck this up and flame out at some point because he's newt cain perry and that's what he does.

naw, newt's actually got a chance here, especially if other non-romneys drop out of the race. he'll do pretty well in iowa and NH, and might do very well in south-carolina, where the south begins to roll.

NEWTNEWTNEWTNEWT

I wouldn't discount Abe Vigoda--Tessio was always smarter, and believe me, I know.

Tiffany's of NY is definitely in Newt's corner on this nomination thing.

I hope he uses "Breakfast at Tiffany's" as his campaign song.

The Freddie Mac thing has got to be thrown in his face. Perry is a ham-fisted hypocrite about the 'napkin diagram' but Newt is the ultimate Beltway insider and the Teabaggers and the Base have to decide whether even a shred of coherence is important to them. Personally, I'd like to see all their heads explode Scanners-style at the multitude of contradictions they presently contain.

Frum's head has already exploded, evidently (that was a great piece btw, thx for the link upthread)

The Freddie Mac thing has got to be thrown in his face

don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes (i.e., general election v. newt gingrich).

Bobby Moynihan is probably out distributing Newt fliers as we speak

How can you not love him?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU72izvZVRA

"I can't tell you what Speaker Gingrich is saying." I can only tell you what Speaker Gingrich is saying.

I love how the de facto GOP position is "round em up and deport em" as if that is a) moral, b) simple, c) inexpensive and d) a net benefit for the economy

their old position was "let them fry on an electrified fence with an alligator-infested moat dug around it," so this is an improvement.

in that it's only slightly less feasible eh I guess so

Josh Marshall thinks Newt-mentum may have legs:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/11/mitts_darkening_horizon.php

don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes (i.e., general election v. newt gingrich).

I said this not as a partisan but as general advice. S/he who is (relatively, to him) w/o sin cast some mf'ing stones ppl!

lol how badly did romney screw-up that FOX News interview?

Bring in the clowns...

the clip above seems like yr standard Romney performance to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

Bring in the clowns...

they're ... all... rea...dy... heeeeeere

lol romney's answer on immigration question:

talk talk talk talk talk talk talk maybe he'll move on to something else talk talk talk talk talk talk talk

talk talk uh . . . you know . . . (nervous laughter) . . . uh talk talk

the lolsome part is that uh, aren't people who are here illegally already at the "back of the line" re: becoming legal

anyway, gingrich has a chance, because (a) he's an angry white guy who knows how to dog-whistle to his reactionary constituency (i.e., the GOP base) and (b) romney's No. 1 asset was the total, utter inability of his opponents to speak in coherent sentences and discuss even rudimentary policy, and -- as wrong as gingrich is on most issues -- he can speak full sentences and discuss policy.

basically, i'm willing to give amnesty to any undocumented person who can speak english better than rick perry.

which means amnesty for almost all of america's 11M undocumented persons.

anyway, gingrich has a chance, because (a) he's an angry white guy who knows how to dog-whistle to his reactionary constituency (i.e., the GOP base)

which means he has no chance of gaining independents, therefore he's lost the primaries.

let me put it the way my favorite candidate, herman cain, would put it: I'M SORRY BUT YOU ARE WRONG..

I still think Mitt Romney is the likely Republican presidential nominee. But I don’t think, in the way I did a few months ago, that he’s the inevitable Republican nominee.

Can Romney, under the right conditions, break out of the 20s, where he’s been stuck for almost the entire campaign? Sure. Jonathan Bernstein is persuasive on this point: Polls of Republicans show that Romney has low negatives and he performs well in hypothetical match-ups against other Republicans. But what if Romney faces the wrong conditions?

The central mystery of the Republican primary is this: How can Romney’s support be so stable in a primary that’s so volatile? So far, we’ve seen a boom-and-bust cycle take Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain from candidate to frontrunner to not-gonna-happen. But after each bust, Romney’s support was unchanged. He picked up none of their disappointed supporters. Now he’s trailing Newt Gingrich in the polls. Here, via TPM, is what that’s looked like in Iowa:

(chart i can't print here)

Ron Brownstein has come up with perhaps the best explanation for this. The Republican primary, he writes, has “become two races running along parallel but very distinct tracks.” One is the non-tea party primary. There, Romney is winning, and easily. The other is the tea party primary. There, Romney is losing, and big. Here’s the graph, which was published before Gingrich’s surge:

(chart i can't print here)

But ultimately, there’s really only one primary, and Romney needs more supporters if he’s going to win. And though Romney does not have a low ceiling, he clearly has a sticky floor. Republicans may not refuse to support him, but there’s strong evidence that a substantial number don’t want to support him. If Romney is inevitable, they’ll come around. But what if, at the wrong moment, Romney is not inevitable?

Last night, Romney sat down for one of the first televised interviews he’s given in this campaign cycle. It was with a fairly friendly audience: Bret Baier of Fox News. And it was such a disaster that this morning, the Democratic National Committee released a video splicing together the reviews — many of them from Fox.

(video i can't print here)

Debates are a format that suits Romney well and his competitors poorly. So far, Romney hasn’t even stumbled. But eventually, he will stumble. Nobody runs a truly perfect campaign. So imagine Romney loses Iowa, as is very possible. And, under the strain of the loss, he gives a bad interview, or has a testy debate performance, right before New Hampshire. That might be all the excuse a critical number of New Hampshire voters need to coalesce around Gingrich, or perhaps the excuse that some resigned Romney supporters need to jump ship to Huntsman. And so Romney either loses New Hampshire or barely wins. And then he loses South Carolina.

To be sure, Romney could, even under those circumstances, mount a comeback. As Nate Silver points out, there are eight weeks separating the New Hampshire primary from Super Tuesday. In 2008, there were merely three weeks. The 2008 calendar favored a momentum candidate like Gingrich, while the 2012 calendar favors a fundamentals candidate like Romney.

Even so, Romney is having enough trouble adding supporters that he’s clearly vulnerable to a run of bad luck or bad news coming at the wrong time. And thus far, the primary has been so focused on a medium in which he shines — debates —that his flaws in interviews, his vulnerability to ads portraying him as a flip-flopper, and his weaknesses as a retail politician haven’t really been tested. Romney has looked so strong that even a slight stumble could be significant for a media that wants a horserace and voters who clearly want to support another candidate. So is Romney the likely nominee? Sure. Inevitable? No.

it's true that Romney and Gingrich are the only two candidates that can, how you say, talk good

that's how i say.

actually, santorum can talk good. he's just lol.

Debates are a format that suits Romney well and his competitors poorly. So far, Romney hasn’t even stumbled. But eventually, he will stumble. Nobody runs a truly perfect campaign. So imagine Romney loses Iowa, as is very possible. And, under the strain of the loss, he gives a bad interview, or has a testy debate performance, right before New Hampshire. That might be all the excuse a critical number of New Hampshire voters need to coalesce around Gingrich, or perhaps the excuse that some resigned Romney supporters need to jump ship to Huntsman. And so Romney either loses New Hampshire or barely wins. And then he loses South Carolina.

this is all sort of ridiculous since a) Gingrich is the one more likely to stumble/give bad interview/have a testy debate performance. and Gingrich is the one with the weaker ground campaign. also Gingrich has less money. the deck is way stacked against him.

wait 'till FOXNews becomes gingrich's ground campaign.

WAIT 'TILL GINGRICH CO-OPTS ALL OF FORMER CANDIDATE HERMAN CAIN'S GROUND CAMPAIGN

the cain campaign is a moving train

Monk, keep flagellating yourself into excitement.

I think the Marshall and Klein pieces have it exactly right: there's no logical reason why this is happening (and 20 logical reasons why it shouldn't be happening), I don't think it's going to last, but I'm a lot less sure of that today than I was three weeks ago. I'm assuming that Alfred and Shakey Mo Collier don't view Marshall and Klein the same way they would, say, Cokie Roberts or David Gregory. So where do they get the certainty that Marshall and Klein don't have?

Klein's field is economics and economics policy, in which he is expert. At campaign analysis he's as helpless as Cokie and Gregory, and thanks to deadlines and the internet cycle yesterday's "blunder" by Romney gets more discussion than it deserves.

the GOP wants to win, and with Romney they have a chance. Plus: a President Romney can nominate all manner of conservative horrors as Cabinet members, judges, and SCOTUS justices. That's how he mitigates conservative dissatisfaction.

the fox interview doesn't have one really horrible moment for mitt, but in general it was a disaster. Seemed petulant, manic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26ePA49HLes

Okay--I've found him pretty smart on politics, too. Anyway, I guess we'll see. (The reasons you cite for Romney are the reasons I was citing months ago; like everyone, I'm mystified as to why the needle never budges an inch for him.)

because he sucks! and is a robot!

the simple fact is the GOP is in complete disarray, and contrary to what others have argued here, are no more prone to "fall in line" than Democrats are. the party is fundamentally dysfunctional at the moment.

BAIER: What was the last book you read or are reading?

ROMNEY: I’m reading sort of a fun one right now, so I’ll skip that. But I just read “Decision Points” by President Bush.

Ugh. This highlights one of Romney’s biggest problems: He’s a stiff who doesn’t really understand how he’s perceived. Of all the candidates, he’s the one who needs to tell people about the “fun” book he’s reading! It would have helped him enormously if he said John Grisham or Brad Thor’s latest thriller.

It's not like Mitt is some obviously electable candidate. Primary voters may have been told that he's the most electable but then they turn on the debate and Newt (and Cain!) run circles around him.

Gingrich and Cain haven't run circles 'round him in debates!

see, everyone agrees: romney is a petulant, manic, sucky robot.

BTW, romney's really reading the red-jaime series from diana gabaldon. it is his secret shame.

In reference to something earlier today, I thought the Frum piece was excellent too. I don't think he's saying anything that Sullivan hasn't been hammering away at for months, but obviously it carries extra weight coming from someone who actually worked for W.

Mitt's fun book was probably either Chuck Eddy's Stairway to Hell or something from the Goosebumps series.

they (and Bachmann and Perry) have benefited from Romney fatigue.

"I’m reading sort of a fun one right now, so I’ll skip that."

Just to get really pointlessly analytical, what's weird about that is "so" instead of "but." "But" I probably wouldn't notice; "so" = fun is something you should never discuss?

"Decision Points" = not a fun read

the GOP wants to win, and with Romney they have a chance.

Facts not at all in evidence

http://www.landmarkaudio.com/productimages/111462.jpg

when Newt wins the nom I'll liveblog this for your pleasure

Facts not at all in evidence

the GOP mantra since '94.

If they wanted to win they'd circle their wagons round Huntsman. He's Republican lite like Obama and he's new and the country is mighty dissatisfied in an inchoate (stupid) way

Herman is still convinced "the other side" is behind his woes: "Once I moved into the top tier, I think they became threatened. My star was shining and rising too fast...they wanted to take that shine away." It's really too bad that he will never get to apply his detective skills to the intricacies of geopolitical maneuvering.

Romney will be the flip-flop, unloved, robot candidate who doesn't quite make it. There's plenty of fire in the GOP belly and no-one who can express it (and still win).

fuck Newt & Forstchen have written a lotta books

I can't wait for the ILX Book Club on these mofos

m white otm

I still think romney's gonna get it because but I think that he won't be winning primaries w/ healthy margins, prob even after he's 'sealed it'. newt et al just have so much crap they'll be dealing w/ along the way, even if they pick up some states, it's just so hard to imagine them making it to the finish line.

but "the GOP wants to win" doesn't really mean anything. everybody wants to win every election but there are definitely elections where 'the most electable' candidate didn't get the nomination. what is the GOP? 'party insiders'? fox news? the voters? people who showed up at tea party rallies? I think most people who are crazy enough to support the present day republican party might not see 'electability' the same way we do.

er romney's gonna get it but*

dunno how that because snuck in

anyway I would like to remind people who think that romney is 100%, you can literally double your money on intrade if you wanna put it where yr mouth is

No thanks -- that's what you chaps are for.

Question for those of you who were here in November of 2007: was there anybody posting at the time that Hillary had it locked up, and dismissing the idea that Obama might win? I realize it's far from a perfect analogy, as Obama was still more or less a blank slate, and Gingrich is anything but.

I didn't care much about the primaries until January '08 and Bam won in Iowa. But now it looked inevitable: he'd had a fairly big head of steam from the end of 2006 through 2007. It's hard to remember now, but lots of establishment Corner types were impressed by his prose and demeanor.

Which is to say: I thought HRC inevitable through summer '07, didn't care much until Iowa, then concluded that this man would be the nominee and probably the president.

Sure--it was a lot easier to predict Obama after Iowa, which is why I'm curious what people were posting a month beforehand, the point we're at now. If Gingrich were to win Iowa, predicting he'll win the nomination would seem a lot less chimerical than it does now. (And if Romney were to win, I wouldn't go on about how anything's possible.)

not a relevant parallel imho

just too many things that don't line up - the state of the party, the state of the country, the public's relationship to the candidates (Romney's already run for president once!), etc.

clinton was the frontrunner but not inevitable vs. romney's not the frontrunner but is inevitable

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih6XjO_fhrI

haha I wish that clip didn't cut off the music

ugh kramer is the worst

It was the best of times, the worst of times

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VWbYF4460g

Oh man, that laugh...the story of how I ended up rooting for Newt Gingrich in 2011 so Barack Obama would have an easier time in 2012 all begins with that laugh.

can't wait until we can call the gen election thread "Newtonian Mechanics"

Which is to say: I thought HRC inevitable through summer '07, didn't care much until Iowa, then concluded that this man would be the nominee and probably the president.

i thought rick santorum would be the next president of the united states, and nothing i have seen has changed my view.

you all are going to be praising my predictive powers when pres. santorum takes office in 2013.

his first act in office: imprison dan savage.

he'll figure out the "charges" later.

Santorum's on Piers Morgan within the hour--he may mention you, Daniel.

he should, as i am his constituency.

well, me and his wife and their 42 kids and his parents and his in-laws and a few friends from the "No Sex 'Till Marriage" support group he sponsors.

too bad american girl dolls haven't got the vote yet

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

by 30 points. 30!

Note also Huntsman's surge!

Jon Huntsman - 3% (+0)
Rick Perry - 2% (-22)
Rick Santorum - 1% (-1)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FLMT_1130925.pdf

the crosstabs are interesting

“My wife loves me. She just told me that again today,” Cain added.

The Montana (the other PPP poll) primary's in June, as far as I can tell...I hope Newt's not working some kind of Giuliani-type Montana Strategy.

I had one of those "doesn't really happen in real life" opportunities recently - we were over in New York in August, and met a friend who lives there and was about to do an old-school travel around the world for three months on sabbatical from work.

She dropped in on us last week in London, having pretty much not paid much attention to anything western while travelling due to lack of roaming data. One of the things that came up was the Republican Candidacy. Yeah, she said, what's going on there since I left? A minute later: "Wait, who's Herman Cain?"

Interesting that it's Ron Paul who put this out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWKTOCP45zY

I guess Gingrich more than Romney is Paul's impediment to a strong showing in Iowa, and Romney, for obvious reasons, can't really go after Gingrich on the same terms. After yesterday's Florida poll, I would expect Romney to begin--very soon, like today--hammering away at "electability."

NPR played a 15=second clip of Pat Robertson suggesting that Cain should quit. Like the Communists they are.

Cain held an impromptu (and rather chaotic, it looked like) press conference in New Hampshire last night, and the last question was about Ginger White. He answered by saying something like, "Let me address that: 9-9-9 is the solution to our country's economic woes..." 9-9-9 is now shorthand for "I refuse to talk about that."

I don't know if Robertson matters much anymore in the nomination process...20 years ago, he could have moved mountains. Maybe he still has influence behind the scenes--no idea.

Hold on, Herman Cain has been carrying on with a woman called Ginger White? Interracial relationship perchance?

Happy face/sad face.

http://www.bittenandbound.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Ginger-White-claims-13-year-affair-with-Herman-Cain.jpg

Cain held an impromptu (and rather chaotic, it looked like) press conference in New Hampshire last night, and the last question was about Ginger White. He answered by saying something like, "Let me address that: 9-9-9 is the solution to our country's economic woes..." 9-9-9 is now shorthand for "I refuse to talk about that."

i love herman cain more than ever.

Q: how would you handle a nuclear crisis between pakistan and india?
A: 999 is the solution to our country's economic woes.

Q: what do you propose in place of obamacare?
A: 999 is the solution to our country's woes.

Q: would you allow the trigger to go forward against DOD programs?
A: 999 is the solution.

Q: how do you spell "xylophone"?
A: 999 we're doing fine.

Insane roffles to be had over at this hyperwinger blog:

http://theothermccain.com/

Guy's always been a tool but he's been a Cain freak forever and now he's deep ending big time. Just scroll through the past few days. Meantime this one's not about Cain but it is about how wonderful he himself is.

So glad that under a Bachmann presidency we'll pull our embassy from Iran.

god those guys are all such whiners. and they bitch at each other all the time. like on a personal level. i'll never quite understand it.

xp

Many bald men fighting over a comb.

is that a koan?

So glad that under a Bachmann presidency we'll pull our embassy from Iran.

lololol did she actually say this? she did, didn't she.

xpost -- I wish I could be all these clowns' zen master, then I could tell them to shut up and contemplate their navel, leave the room, lock the door and turn off the a/c.

http://theothermccain.com/2011/10/06/major-national-gathering-of-conservative-bloggers-will-include-everyone-but-me/

lol cry moar

talk to this one then:

Missing the 60s
December 1, 2011 11:18 A.M.
By Mona Charen

The always engaging Michael Barone theorizes that Mitt Romney sounds corny because he “missed the Sixties.” Is that a bad thing? He was married and had two small children to care for in the 60s. No time to occupy anything, smoke pot, or have casual sex. I can live with that in a potential president. Don’t you wish everyone had missed the 60s?

I'm fine with Mona missing the '10s, really.

I'm glad Herman's Hermits didn't miss the '60s. They wrote some excellent songs.

mitt is older than i thought!

Sounds like Herman is anything but a hermit, yknowhatimsayin'

yeah I always forget how old mitt is, he looks good for his age

I'm glad Herman's Hermits didn't miss the '60s. They wrote some excellent songs.

you may have irrevocably damaged your credibility here.

Romney's first kid wasn't born until 1970.

It's the magic undergarments. xps

Herman gets around - more of a Beach Boys kinda dude

Romney's first kid wasn't born until 1970.

It's Mona's kind of hogwash culture war neurosis coupled with a complete disregard for any kind of facts or fact-checking that makes me wonder whether these voters have, like, sleep apnea or overexposure to lead that has killed off too many brain cells.

If you don't love "Must to Avoid" or "Mrs. Brown, You've Got a Lovely Daughter," well, I don't what to say.

How to keep this secret from Republican voters? "If you're on the DNC/Obama email lists, you notice that the other team doesn't bother attacking Newt. This isn't complicated. They worry about Romney. They don't worry about facing Gingrich."

Is Mike Love a Herman Cain kinda dude tho?

Where is that Show Me Pictures Of Mike Love With Weirdoes thread when yo need it?

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/02/06/article-0-0D11A9BD000005DC-910_634x449.jpg

"No milk today-y/ My love has gone away" (xp)

really wish you guys were on our current overlords' asses this much.

Sorry--I'm throwing down the gauntlet here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1vqgTiu3Iw

rleisenman : 12/01/11 11:30
If we were electing a president to avoid casual sex and pot smoking, Mr. Romney would be at the top of my list. Personally, I have some other presidential goals.

(Great clip) (xp)

ok now you guys be telling me how old romney actually is, not disproving the theory that he is a genuine robot

zero smoking and drinking and having sex only 5 times in your life does wonders

that 'other mccain' blog and it's discussion of intellectuals led me to this dude:

http://www.stephenhicks.org/

who wrote this:

The names of the postmodern vanguard are now familiar:
Michel Foucault, Jacques Derrida, Jean-François Lyotard, and
Richard Rorty. They are its leading strategists. They set the
direction of the movement and provide it with its most potent tools.
The vanguard is aided by other familiar and often infamous names:
Stanley Fish and Frank Lentricchia in literary and legal criticism,
Catharine MacKinnon and Andrea Dworkin in feminist legal
criticism, Jacques Lacan in psychology, Robert Venturi and Andreas
Huyssen in architectural criticism, and Luce Irigaray in the criticism
of science.
Members of this elite group set the direction and tone for the
postmodern intellectual world.

wtfffffff

madisonian : 12/01/11 11:33
No, Mona, I do not, especially not the musicians who had the good sense to listen to the Delta and Chicago blues men, and gave their interpretation back to us. (I just wish the band named for a blimp had the virtue to credit those from whom they actually stole, so the blues artists could reap the benefits of their good writing.)

Beyond music, I'm glad we have the example of the 60's to forever serve as living proof of the mayhem and misery that hedonism causes.

That is an invaluable living example of the evils of socialist thought.

I would not trade it in for a thing.

What I wish for, though, is for the 60's generation to either embrace what this country stands for, leave for other places if they cannot, or to hurry up and chunk into the clay already.

i'm stealing "chunk into the clay"

"zeppelin rules. kill the longhairs."

interesting polling about romney and gingrich and 'electability' and the primaries.

newt's short-term numbers and long-term numbers are not gonna be the same thing

well, i think i agree. but there's a decent possibility that he'll hold this together, for five reasons: (a) there isn't much time, for him to screw-up or for the anti-romney crowd to back someone else; (b) the anti-romney crowd probably now sees there are no other viable choices (the others have now all disqualified themselves or have no chance); (c) gingrich has "angry, resentful white" dog-whistle messaging down to a near-science; (d) gingrich's flaws are pretty well-known; (e) gingrich can speak coherently and discuss policy; (e) romney's numbers aren't going in the right direction, and the heat will continue being turned up on him, too.

also: newt is much more fun than romney.

I'm not saying that w/r/t him not getting the nom (it's also true w/r/t that) but rather 'he might be more nationally electable if the election were held today, but prob not even gonna be the case a month from now and absolutely not the case nov 2012.

when I think about newt I'm reminded of that simpsons episode whwere mr. burns survives because he has every disease known to man and they all cancel each other out in some equilibrium. that's newt and scandals. where do you even start?

oh, i wouldn't be so happy over newt if i thought that he would be a more formidable adversary in the general-election.

on the other hand, i also see that romney's not very good at retail politics or one-on-one interviews. they bring out -- and reinforce -- all his worst qualities.

I'm glad we have the example of the 60's to forever serve as living proof of the mayhem and misery that hedonism causes.

Ha ha, this is such an empty, strawman trope. We ARE the 60's now and hedonism and socialism aren't all that related imho.

Man, can you imagine Newt as President? Foreign leaders would be staying away in dorves to avoid getting lectured, probably about their own countries.

droves, rather

Wow--that electability poll (even though I agree it's very much a case of illusion vs. reality; in the long run, surely Romney's more electable) could really present problems for Romeny. Like Sullivan says, at this point it's like his last argument to Republican voters. Saying he'd govern more rationally probably wouldn't get him very far.

xp: thought you meant dwarves

I'd take that poll cum grano salis. If Newt ends up candidate he very much risks talking down to a large portion of the electorate and alienating them.

yeah any 'electability' poll at this point means nothing

xp: thought you meant dwarves

Old spelling of Dover, maybe? Quiet town and if Newt shows up you can slip over to France.

i'm not usually one to rest on the common wisdom of the american people, but newt gingrich is a haphazard knowitall blowhard self-aggrandizing asshole and this is clear with any exposure to him. it's basically his supposed strength, even. the whole country knew it a decade ago and they will un-forget real quick.

i don't think it's possible for him to sustain an actual campaign. i'm not even talking about his relationship to potential voters or the public (though that star will fade too), i'm talking about, like, being on a bus with people for weeks at a stretch. he can't do it and won't. yeah yeah romney is a creepy robot or whatever, but newt gingrich is a fucking jerk with a bejewelled skeksi for a wife. there is just no way. come on.

i give this another two weeks before it starts to fall apart. i should head to intrade...

newt gingrich is a fucking jerk with a bejewelled skeksi for a wife

this is fucking beautiful

Also on Sullivan today:

http://dailydish.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e2015393d91226970b-popup

As a Canadian, I'm very proud. But I'm also mystified as to how Chile was left off.

This map:

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/12/the-world-according-to-herman-cain.html

"If you're on the DNC/Obama email lists, you notice that the other team doesn't bother attacking Newt. This isn't complicated. They worry about Romney. They don't worry about facing Gingrich."

It's possible that Democrats overestimate Romney and underestimate Gingrich for various reasons.

- Dems remember Gingrich as a washed-up liberal nemesis from the '90s, and specifically a nemesis who was soundly thrashed by Bill Clinton. This makes him seem weak to them. But sometimes politicians learn from a defeat and come back stronger, cf. Nixon. Also, Obama may be a less wily adversary than Clinton was.

- Romney looks like the kind of candidate who Dems like to nominate for themselves - ie., a moderate, well-educated, well-spoken, technocratic Northeasterner - so he looks electable to them. They forget that the rest of the country doesn't always like these kinds of candidates so much.

okay, mitt romney is TERRIBLE at retail politics.

i'm sort of torn on this. on the one hand, i think i'd hate doing this as much as romney obviously does. on the other hand, if he just relaxed -- i.e., if he wasn't looking for the sharp or witty line (which doesn't work in these settings), or so quick to deliver a false greeting (and it shows), or so gifted as ruining the possibility of conversation (see virtually every effort to engage a voter here) -- he'd be okay.

so basically you are saying if Mitt Romney was a little less like Mitt Romney, he'd be okay

no.

i am saying if mitt romney were a lot less like mitt romney, he'd be okay.

maybe he should just be himself. walk up to voters and say, "man, i hate this hand-shaking and hob-knobbing with the 'people.' so distasteful and unclean. but for pete's sake, i'm running for president! can i count on your vote?"

- Dems remember Gingrich as a washed-up liberal nemesis from the '90s, and specifically a nemesis who was soundly thrashed by Bill Clinton. This makes him seem weak to them. But sometimes politicians learn from a defeat and come back stronger, cf. Nixon. Also, Obama may be a less wily adversary than Clinton was.

I think it's important to remember that Gingrich was chased out of DC not by the Democrats but by HIS OWN PARTY. Dude burned tons of bridges in the GOP, stabbed colleagues in the back to get the speakership, and has been out of office for over a decade for a reason. the party doesn't want to back him.

DemocratMachine -- Newt is up by 21. Anybody got any dirt on this man? Affairs? Shady business dealings? A long career in politics? Anything? #stumped #p2

lol

you've got to be kidding

Watching GOP poll numbers is like watching a serial cattle stampede.

I think o. nate's post above is quite good. IMaybe there's a Nixon/Gingrich parallel--that after years in the wilderness (Nixon in '62 was more or less as disgraced as Gingrich in '98), you come back a lot cagier, i.e., even more lethally cynical than before. A surprisingly human immigration stance from Gingrich may be his equivalent of the teenager Nixon planted in the audience with the phony "Bring us together" sign.

nixon did not divorce his wife cause she had cancer

I think it's important to remember that Gingrich was chased out of DC not by the Democrats but by HIS OWN PARTY

Sure, but the reason they chased him out was because the Republicans over-all did poorly in the '98 midterms, partly related to blow-back from the Clinton impeachment, even though Newt himself was re-elected. And they didn't really chase him out anyway, he resigned on his own. Maybe they didn't want him as speaker any more, but it was his own choice to leave the House. Whatever enemies he made among fellow Republicans in those days are probably not in a position of influence to impede his progress today.

right, the only thing that can impede him is people talking about basically anything he's ever done in his life

<i>nixon did not divorce his wife cause she had cancer</i>

One of the most moving defenses of Nixon I've ever encountered.

McCain divorced his wife while she was recovering from a bad car accident, didn't he? And that didn't stop him from securing the nomination last time.

Read that as 'screwing the nomination'

mccain had been in the spotlight for decades, 'maverick', warhero, whatever. gingrich's bio isn't established in the same way.

it's a Rasmussen poll.

And they didn't really chase him out anyway, he resigned on his own. Maybe they didn't want him as speaker any more, but it was his own choice to leave the House. Whatever enemies he made among fellow Republicans in those days are probably not in a position of influence to impede his progress today.

These people would disagree.

One point Sullivan keeps making--I have no idea if this is true--is that Rasmussen polls are narrowly reliable when trying to figure out what Republicans are thinking.

And then you've got:

http://conservatives4palin.com/2011/11/resist-we-much-%E2%80%A6-mr-gingrich-for-he%E2%80%99s-character-assassination-for-conservatism.html

Rasmussen leans right, yeah.

And back and forth and...

http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2011/11/30/latest-gingrich-oppo-dump/

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/284569/if-newt-criticism-makes-one-rino-i-guess-steyn-too

http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2011/12/01/on-newt-and-gnomes/

I'll check in on Palin's Facebook page now and again. Her true believers are understandably befuddled and distraught at the moment.

Whatever enemies he made among fellow Republicans in those days are probably not in a position of influence to impede his progress today.

lol you mean like Dick Armey? who bankrolls the Tea Party and hates Gingrich's guts?

The term “gnome” wasn’t directed at Jim, no matter how short he may be

lol

actually I dunno how Armey feels about Gingrich these days, maybe it's all water under the bridge

also lol nobody resigns on their own from an elected position. they resign because the alternatives are worse.

I could point you to the NRO debate about whether Gingrich and Billy shared an Irish whiskey by themselves; Armey is involved somehow.

The confusion and internecine shivings on the right are making me rub my hands in glee.

the very IDEA of two pols sharing a drink, like their claques always said Tip and Ronnie did.

McCain divorced his wife while she was recovering from a bad car accident, didn't he? And that didn't stop him from securing the nomination last time.

actually lol there are several parallels between mccain '08 lol and gingrich '11 lol.

lol romney getting passed on the racetrack by a 120 year-old lol

Dick Armey told me Newt and Bill Clinton had had secret meetings at which they talked about their girlfriends.

Those guys stick around for longer than you'd think. Apparently Boehner and Gingrich have some history too:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/195427-lawmakers-not-flocking-to-gingrich

“He’s a guy of 1,000 ideas, and the attention span of a 1-year-old,”

LOLGOP -- Michele Bachmann: "I will immediately reinstate Don't Ask, Don't Tell. It's worked wonderfully in my marriage."
______________________

LOLGOP -- RT @Lizardoid: Bachmann is not opposed to gay people marrying, as long as the marriage is a loveless sham

okay that isn't a real Bachmann quote is it

because if it is I might explode from lols

sadly, it isn't.

nah, lolgop is all fake...but hilarious.

but it could be bachmann!

she says some crazy stuff!

I'm not sure that anyone cares too much what some old Republican Congressmen think of Newt though - if anyone lacks credibility in today's political climate, it's Congress. It's more important what someone like Roger Ailes thinks:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1211/Foxs_temptation_Newt.html

thehill articles are interesting:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/195427-lawmakers-not-flocking-to-gingrich

In contrast, Mitt Romney, another front-runner for the GOP nomination, has announced several Republican congressional endorsements in recent days, including Sens. John Thune (S.D.) and Kelly Ayotte (N.H.) and Rep. Charlie Bass (N.H.).

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/196441-newts-hand-always-six-inches-from-the-self-destruct-button

There’s some evidence that Romney’s campaign might be getting nervous — it pressed Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who represents Iowa’s neighbor to the west, to announce his endorsement early. Thune said he was thinking about waiting until closer to the caucuses.

Thune, who served with Gingrich in the House in 1997 and 1998, said his endorsement of Romney was not a statement against the former Speaker.

“It wasn’t like I was deciding against anybody, I just decided for Romney,” Thune said. “My view was that at certain times in the nation’s history you need certain styles of leadership. Right now we need somebody who knows what it’s like to turn failing enterprises around. Romney’s done that in business, he did that with the Olympics.”

do the ppl who are all "let's run the US like a business" realize that we can't just deport our unemployed citizens or are they just completely unaware of how most businesses are turned around/saved?

ah yes the failing business of the Olympics

all federal gov't work will be outsourced to Bangalore

do the ppl who are all "let's run the US like a business" realize that we can't just deport our unemployed citizens or are they just completely unaware of how most businesses are turned around/saved?

Ask Florida how that Rick Scott thing is working out for them.

we love our governor stop being mean

http://valdoespolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/rick-scott-omg.jpg

I left Florida four months ago and he still haunts my dreams.

jesus christ, Halloween was two calendar pages ago, cut that out

I thought Marc Rubio was in charge of Florida who's this Rick Scott clown

The governor.

Rubio is the junior senator.

I know just makin a lil joke

This is such a runaway story right now, maybe it really is about to come crashing down.

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/12/romneys-rasmussen-gap-ctd.html

well, either the story or romney will crash down, it seems.

"what's Gingrich's fundraising lookin like?" is a more pertinent question than "what does Rassmussen say?"

a poll is a story

CAN WE ALL JUST BE BLOWN UP?

Romney ran in 2008, with almost the same electorate as today, and was soundly rejected then. That means there is a huge percentage of GOP voters who made up their minds against Romney once already. To me, that is very interesting.

What exactly has he done to fundamentally alter all those prior decisons to become favorable this time around? Seems to me, damn little.

That's why his being annointed as the inevitable winner has always seemed so odd to me. Usually, after an abject failure, the candidate must at least go through the motions of re-inventing himself - unless, of course, he is Bob Dole.

Aimless- he has gone through the process of being less crazy than absolutely everyone around him, and also not having a name which means booty juices

Ergo, the serial stampede. It is always away from Romney, no matter where else it seems to be headed.

romney's real pitch is to look to his left, look to his right on the GOP debate dias, then turn to the voters and say, "oh, you can't vote for any of these guys, you know this."

if gingrich can prevent romney from doing that, gingrich has a really good chance. but that remains to be seen, as gingrich can also be a clown.

If Boehner really hates Gingrich as much as that article suggests, then one interesting what-if game concerns how Gingrich becoming the front-runner might change the calculus among House Republicans - i.e., between playing ball with Obama on economic stimulus, and thereby helping their own re-election prospects, vs. stonewalling the stimulus and thereby helping the prospective nominee but opening themselves up to criticism in the fall. Maybe it's just coincidence, but Boehner is suddenly sounding more reasonable about the possibility of a payroll cut.

It's worked wonderfully in my marriage

Great way to squelch the rumors that your husband's gay.

Boehner and Obama would have negotiated long ago if not for the Tea Party; he worries about his votes back home.

The more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to think that the party elite will suggest to the wingnuts that Newt is NOT a good pick or, that failing, will smear the heck out of him.

but it's been happening already!

and to every not-Romney

the key is largely timing. newt is the last not-romney. it's newt or nothing.

(cue rick santorum weeping silently)

Huntsman must be FURIOUS behind closed doors, lol

he is angrily listening to "Frownland" RIGHT NOW

It's not really a matter of the Party Elite, such as it is, suggesting things to the base, which won't listen to it anyway. All the satraps can do is withhold funding and watch as the unprepared, oafish Bachmanns, Perrys, Cains, and Gingrichs demonstrate their unworthiness for the nomination.

bite your tounge rick santorum never weeps he cries lightning and spits broken-glass

gingrich is less likely to totally screw-up.

he could -- he is, after all, a clown -- but he's the kind of clown that's appealed to the GOP base for a while now, and this particular GOP base is even more receptive to his reactionary vibe. and he is not mitt romney, so he has that going for him, too.

You guys are stuck with Romney.

did you renounce your citizenship or something?

I don't know why I misread "reactionary vibe" so badly

I guess that would be more appropriate for Santorum

You guys are stuck with Romney.

i am stuck with romney, and romney's stuck with me

(sung to the tune of the band-aid brand commercial)

did you renounce your citizenship or something?

― dr. strongo, Thursday, December 1, 2011 4:08 PM

there are by my count 247 members of the Politico editorial staff that are Communists.

Re: Huntsman. Seems so odd to me that a former governor of fucking UTAH is seen as such a liberal wuss by the Tea Party wingnuts.

now, THIS IS MORE LIKE IT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7kog1CjzcY&feature=player_embedded

please note, DNC and GOP rivals: this is how to attack mitt romney.

and there is so -- so -- much more.

I love how that interview takes place in a warehouse, like they're about to unpack some crates or make a drug deal or something

are they sitting in the middle of a costco

it isn't a warehouse. it's mitt romney's secret chamber, where they keep his magic sarcophagus.

Meanwhile one last one from that Other McCain dude in terms of self-regard:

http://theothermccain.com/2011/12/01/ace-of-spades-really-hates-ron-paul-endorses-re-election-of-barack-obama/

And back to the usual fun.

feasting nightly on the blood of hourly laborers

xpost...i think.

Is Huntsman hampered by being LDS, too? There's a lot of ambiguity about them in this country.

You guys are stuck with Obamney.

Huntsman is more hampered by most ppl not knowing anything about him

OH A UNITY-TICKET GOOD IDEA.

I'm sure being LDS doesn't help Huntsman. Since being LDS is considered one of Romney's liabilities, it doesn't help you position yourself as a not-Romney if you have the same liability. But I don't think a non-LDS Huntsman would have done appreciably better, all else being equal. I just think that running as the most moderate Republican was not a winning strategy this year.

He's not really a moderate, the rest of them are just plain loony.

"Because when I tendered my resignation, nobody asked me to stay."

Paul goes after Gingrich, Huntsman goes after Romney--do Romney and Gingrich plan to go after each other at any point? (I know I should recognize the acronym, but what is LDS?)

Latter Day Saints, aka Mormon

so much drama in the LDS

I just think that running as the most moderate Republican was not a winning strategy this year.

I also think that his refusal to pander to the extremes infuriates the small sense of empowerment the tea partiers feel they've wrested from the Party.

i want to thank m. white for the xpost that prevented me from continuing on custos-style with matt's joke

sorry

no, you saved us all

Otoh, the psychology of Mormon vampires kind of cracks me up.

I also think that his refusal to pander to the extremes infuriates the small sense of empowerment the tea partiers feel they've wrested from the Party.

Yeah, the non-Tea-Party vote has been sewn up by Romney, and Huntsman has never even tried to court the Tea Party vote.

"what's Gingrich's fundraising lookin like?" is a more pertinent question than "what does Rassmussen say?"

― Shakey Mo Collier, Thursday, December 1, 2011 8:23 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Permalink

McCain had no money and then he won a couple primaries and it flew in. If Newt's lead in Iowa and Florida holds up you'll see the money come in fast.

McCain was that election's chump -- born to lose. All the Wall Street dough went to the other guy.

I mean, Cain was one thing. But Newt polling at 47% in Florida is a big deal. Yes, he might/should/probably will be torn down at some point. But we're five weeks away from Iowa and the current storyline is Mitt looking unhinged in a room full of juice bottles.

now Wall Street's confused.

McCain's campaign was 1.5m in debt at the end of 2007. after those primary wins in january, he ended up raising 75m in the first three months of 2008.

People will get in line behind Gingrich if he notches up primary wins.

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/gingrichflier-440x570.jpg

But we're five weeks away from Iowa and the current storyline is Mitt looking unhinged in a room full of juice bottles.

and a week ago it was "this individual's going to accuse me of an affair for an extended period of time"

GOP hopeful Newt Gingrich defended his stance against certain child labor laws during a campaign stop in Iowa Thursday, saying that children born into poverty aren’t accustomed to working unless it involves crime.

“Really poor children, in really poor neighborhoods have no habits of working and have nobody around them who works so they have no habit of showing up on Monday,” Gingrich claimed.

“They have no habit of staying all day, they have no habit of I do this and you give me cash unless it is illegal,” he added.

keep talkin Newt!

Plus w/o child labor laws we won't need to employ the illegals! Picking in the fields is a lot easier when you're three or feet tall so it's actually a humanitarian gesture.

http://images.politico.com/global/news/111201_romney_time_cover_400.jpg

because youre just not insane enough mittens

Good job, Newt--this will really keep the momentum going:

GINGRICH: “They are not going to be the nominee. I don’t have to go around and point out the inconsistencies of people who are not going to be the nominee. They are not going to be the nominee.”

TAPPER: “You are going to be the nominee?”

GINGRICH: “I’m going to be the nominee.”

So maybe this will play out like the Larry Sanders episode where Hank gets to guest-host.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aPqhFUvo8E

man this is going to be awesome

seriously try watching this without repeatedly, aloud just hollering OH MY GOD, OH MY GOD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RenwNhL1Te0

why did no-one mention interracial marriage laws, here

oh man "they abide by the same laws as everyone else, they can marry a man or a woman" lololololol

hoping for a knock-down fight between romney and gingrich -- nasty, brutish and personal.

haven't we seen this already between Romney and Cain, Romney and Perry, Romney and Bachmann? What more can you want?

I can't believe Herman Cain's got his lawyer on Piers Morgan doing damage control. Would seem to be a little late--unless it's damage control meant for Mrs. Cain. ("I know Herman Cain...Everyone knows Herman Cain--except Mrs. Herman Cain.")

Even better--the guy's just ridiculous.

haven't we seen this already between Romney and Cain, Romney and Perry, Romney and Bachmann? What more can you want?

― Lord Sotosyn, Friday, December 2, 2011 1:55 AM (12 minutes ago) Bookmark Permalink

I don't think anyone has come close to the venom and viciousness of attack that McCain, Thompson et al. mustered against Mitt in '08.

Perry's attacks were hapless.

haven't we seen this already between Romney and Cain, Romney and Perry, Romney and Bachmann? What more can you want?

all those "attacks" were hamfisted, bungled, or relatively congenial.

these two, however, have the skills to be really nasty to each other.

Everything's been exceptionally mild so far. Except for Perry's shrill Hail Mary over the Mitt's illegals, there's been basically nothing until these Paul and Huntsman ads of the past two days.

Take out "the"--I haven't started calling him "the Mitt," promise.

Pretty clever reader comment from TPM: Newt Gingrich + Mitt Romney = Knute Romney, All-American.

lmbo @ bachmann getting pwned by high school girls.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/mitt-romney-drops-bombshell-past-201641043.html

a Dean scream from Donny Osmond

You're supposed to smoke cigarettes, Mitt, not eat them

Perry did 10 minutes of what basically amounted to "Aw, shucks" on Leno last night. He's back to calling Social Security a Ponzi scheme, so I guess he's thrown in the towel.

lol, newt gingrich would turn white-house into an 'ideas factory'

Idea #1: Please shut up immediately until after the Iowa caucus!

Idea No. 2: all illegal immigrants must move to detroit, which will be otherwise emptied and turned into an internment camp, while we convene citizen counsels for individual "stay-or-go" trials for each one.

jonathan capehart is right: these comments by newt gingrich are really despicable. but i don't think they'll hurt him with base GOP voters.

An ideas factory, staffed w/ children

newt gingrich would turn white house into a "chocolate factory"

I'm seeing rumblings already that various socon types in Iowa are moving towards Santorum, but of course.

eventually all socons end up immersing themselves in santorum

for those who think romney is a really formidable general-election opponent, it's bad news for the non-romneys to keep splitting the not-romney vote. so now -- for many reasons -- i especially hate santorum.

What the fuck, Newt, don't you know that being an ideas factory is not a legitimate function of government?

I'm in panic mode today. It occurs to me that I'm rooting for a guy who's...a tad undisciplined. (I think it's funny beyond words that Newt thinks that congress right now is a good operational match for an "idea-factory" president.)

Interesting post:

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/12/newts-appeal.html

Suggests that part of Newt's appeal is his gift for highfalutin language and the snarky jab. Conservatives delight at the thought of Newt taking the professorial Obama down a peg.

Clips of Gingrich explaining why and how poor children can replace janitors will take him down a peg.

Newt's flameout is going to be spectacular

*MJpopcorn.gif*

Clips of Gingrich explaining why and how poor children can replace janitors will take him down a peg.

not with the base, i'll bet.

Indies decide elections, and in the general election Gingrich will collapse.

in a general-election v. obama? oh, gingrich will be crushed.

Clips of Gingrich explaining why and how poor children can replace janitors will take him down a peg.

You see, I think he's just so focussed on job creation and what's going to get America moving again, he sometimes gets ahead of himself.

The ideas flow freely.

Gingrich: The New Bob Dole

Indies decide elections, and in the general election Gingrich will collapse.

^^^

can't imagine a lot of women flocking to Newtie's campaign, for ex.

Now there's a guy who I bet is not a big Newt fan. (xpost)

You've got to check this awesome list:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/11/fundamentally-newt-gingrichs-favorite-word.html

ezraklein Ezra Klein -- Buy buy buy RT @DavMicRot: Steady downward trend for Romney finally pushes him below 50% yhoo.it/tM3wrZ

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BYE BYE

For all my heartfelt Newt-love, this does say a lot: I wouldn't even consider putting down anything more than fifty on him.

I'm fundamentally nervous every time he speaks.

fundamentally out of touch with the reality of the real world

d/n plz

Hmm...

not going to hurt him.

look, i don't think newt gingrich will win the nomination. i still think romney will. but it's a slight feeling, and i wouldn't be surprised to see gincrich win. to me, it will be a function of two things: (a) does newt -- like the anti-romneys before him -- implode; and (b) will the other non-romneys drop out of the race in time for it to become a clean "romney v. non-romney" choice. if things fall into place, gingrich can win the nomination, and the timing for a non-romney to gain crucial momentum is better now than it has been in months (i.e., less time for newt to screw it up before he hits a key state -- south carolina -- where romney likely isn't that strong).

“He can be a historic president,” Graham adds. “If he has matured as a person and is, for lack of a better word, calmed down, I think he could really motivate the country to do big things.”

lol

^^ That's pretty gentle, as NRO attacks go. The Tom Coburn quote, calling him a whipped dog who cowered before Clinton, is a nice touch.

for Lindsay to be more insulting would be unladylike

haha, i like this description of rick perry by romney's chief campaign strategist in today's hilariously titled NYT mag article, Building a Better Mitt Romney-bot:

to Stevens, Rick Perry brings to mind the townies in the early scenes of “The Deer Hunter” who go loping into Vietnam expecting to kick butt

exactly

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/kgnL5Py4tj6n.oEMCdKs8A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/en/blogs/thecutline/greta-cain.jpg

is the one on the right Greta in blackface

the one on the right is Greta in mustacheface

that hat looks stupid.

I actually thought GVS was pretty good on CNN through the O.J. trial. That was the first I'd ever seen her; I don't get Fox News, so I've never seen her since. I take it she's typically awful.

Most cable news personalities I know chiefly through their impressionists on SNL.

I mainly know her from her episode of Space Ghost Coast 2 Coast

this is the definitive Greta

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpvPizuq4-Y

god mitt romney at 46.7% is really, really tempting

I actually did pretty well on intrade last election. I remember it being a pain in the ass to get money on, like you have to send a check or something?

rick perry at 2.1% is also an okay gamble

yeah mitt is value. I wish I had money on there.

yeah I was right the only way you can get money on from the US is by sending a check or a bank wire. fuck it.

I know u guyz love Alex Cockburn:

Not since the robber baron Henry Flagler blazed a path through Florida in the 19th century with his railroad has there been so triumphant a progress through the Sunshine state as Newt’s, fittingly so, since Florida is stuffed with hucksters. Newt a staggering 41 per cent, Romney 17, the sample being 600, questioned by the Florida Times Union....

Like another college lecturer, Barack Obama, Gingrich is a glib fellow. Unlike Perry, he’s got several answers to everything. He can take any side of a question. His past is disreputable in so many egregious ways that it is hard to see how the big Republican donors would want to invest substantial money in his campaign, except perhaps as insurance. His campaign organization is an utter mess. It’s surely a better than even bet that IEDs of scandal await detonation along his campaign trail.

But he’s not Mitt Romney. This year, that’s aooarently a game changer. If Newt goes down, the Republicans will be left with the next in line in the polls – namely Ron Paul. Trouble is, Paul really does have principles, starting with a refusal to endorse torture, assassinations, abuses to the Constitution, including endless wars. That puts him out of the picture.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/12/02/suddenly-it%E2%80%99s-newt/

feeling some actual schaudenfreude at the personal fallout of Cain's campaign tbh

dude thought he would just sell a lot of books/make a lot of $$$/get to be a celebrity instead he gets to be a laughingstock with a ruined marriage

I was thinking about this and I think if ron paul were more rand paul-esque (ie crazy libertarian but still willing to toe the line when it mattered) he absolutely have a shot

he would absolutely*

for some reason many (most?) Republicans have a deep animosity for Ron Paul. I find it really strange. Maybe they just hate all his superfans?

as Cockburn sez: Trouble is, Paul really does have principles, starting with a refusal to endorse torture, assassinations, abuses to the Constitution, including endless wars.

also he's too weaselly. GOP likes manly men.

GOP's refusal to embrace ron paul:

• he's too weaselly
• he's too libertarian for their taste (which, when you think about it, suggests that there's limits to the extremism of the modern GOP, but perhaps has as much to do with what libertarianism means for paul's view of foreign policy and projection of american military power)

Not since the robber baron Henry Flagler blazed a path through Florida in the 19th century with his railroad has there been so triumphant a progress through the Sunshine state as Newt’s

We love hyperbole!